the 12Z southern shift continues
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 19.3N 92.6W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2017 72 19.7N 93.1W 1006 23
0000UTC 24.08.2017 84 20.0N 93.9W 1003 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 96 20.8N 94.7W 995 42
0000UTC 25.08.2017 108 21.6N 96.1W 987 49
1200UTC 25.08.2017 120 22.7N 97.5W 979 60
0000UTC 26.08.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING
ATL: HARVEY - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Alyono wrote:the 12Z southern shift continues
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 19.3N 92.6W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2017 72 19.7N 93.1W 1006 23
0000UTC 24.08.2017 84 20.0N 93.9W 1003 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 96 20.8N 94.7W 995 42
0000UTC 25.08.2017 108 21.6N 96.1W 987 49
1200UTC 25.08.2017 120 22.7N 97.5W 979 60
0000UTC 26.08.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING
Does the 12Z bury it in Southern Mexico? I pulled up tropicaltidbits, but I couldn't get it to zoom. It appeared that way though.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
SoupBone wrote:Alyono wrote:the 12Z southern shift continues
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 19.3N 92.6W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2017 72 19.7N 93.1W 1006 23
0000UTC 24.08.2017 84 20.0N 93.9W 1003 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 96 20.8N 94.7W 995 42
0000UTC 25.08.2017 108 21.6N 96.1W 987 49
1200UTC 25.08.2017 120 22.7N 97.5W 979 60
0000UTC 26.08.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING
Does the 12Z bury it in Southern Mexico? I pulled up tropicaltidbits, but I couldn't get it to zoom. It appeared that way though.
that UKMET is about 30 miles north of Tampico, near where Keith made landfall in 2000
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ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
SoupBone wrote:Alyono wrote:the 12Z southern shift continues
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 19.3N 92.6W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2017 72 19.7N 93.1W 1006 23
0000UTC 24.08.2017 84 20.0N 93.9W 1003 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 96 20.8N 94.7W 995 42
0000UTC 25.08.2017 108 21.6N 96.1W 987 49
1200UTC 25.08.2017 120 22.7N 97.5W 979 60
0000UTC 26.08.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING
Does the 12Z bury it in Southern Mexico? I pulled up tropicaltidbits, but I couldn't get it to zoom. It appeared that way though.
12z CMC shifted north from 0z, but 12z UK shifted south from 0z.
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B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Alyono wrote:SoupBone wrote:Alyono wrote:the 12Z southern shift continues
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 19.3N 92.6W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2017 72 19.7N 93.1W 1006 23
0000UTC 24.08.2017 84 20.0N 93.9W 1003 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 96 20.8N 94.7W 995 42
0000UTC 25.08.2017 108 21.6N 96.1W 987 49
1200UTC 25.08.2017 120 22.7N 97.5W 979 60
0000UTC 26.08.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING
Does the 12Z bury it in Southern Mexico? I pulled up tropicaltidbits, but I couldn't get it to zoom. It appeared that way though.
that UKMET is about 30 miles north of Tampico, near where Keith made landfall in 2000
Sorry, I meant the 12Z GFS.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
SoupBone wrote:Alyono wrote:SoupBone wrote:
Does the 12Z bury it in Southern Mexico? I pulled up tropicaltidbits, but I couldn't get it to zoom. It appeared that way though.
that UKMET is about 30 miles north of Tampico, near where Keith made landfall in 2000
Sorry, I meant the 12Z GFS.
yeah, its into Mexico
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Thetxhurricanemaster
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
HMON and HWRF are further North as well they bother show a Texas/Mexico border landfall !
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:HMON and HWRF are further North as well they bother show a Texas/Mexico border landfall !
they're well into Mexico, though HWRF is near where Alex made landfall
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
EC back near hurricane intensity
ping pong continues. Watch 0Z be back to weak south of the BOC the way this has gone, lol
ping pong continues. Watch 0Z be back to weak south of the BOC the way this has gone, lol
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Thetxhurricanemaster
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Alyono wrote:EC back near hurricane intensity
ping pong continues. Watch 0Z be back to weak south of the BOC the way this has gone, lol
Lol yeah the models have been flip flopping like crazy but we have a slightly better consensus now because most 12Z models do show a Northern Mexico landfall somewhere north of Tampico !
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:Alyono wrote:EC back near hurricane intensity
ping pong continues. Watch 0Z be back to weak south of the BOC the way this has gone, lol
Lol yeah the models have been flip flopping like crazy but we have a slightly better consensus now because most 12Z models do show a Northern Mexico landfall somewhere north of Tampico !
consensus would be very near Tampico, which is where the EC is
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Rgv20
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
12zHWRF has a NE Mexico Landfall by Friday Morning as a Hurricane and 12zHMON has a landfall north of Tampico in the same time frame. Going to be interesting to see where exactly and how strong the remnants of Harvey are when they emerge over the BOC.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Thru day 4 the 12zECMWF Ensembles are coming in more aggressive with redevelopment of Harvey in the BOC.
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Thetxhurricanemaster
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Rgv20 wrote:Thru day 4 the 12zECMWF Ensembles are coming in more aggressive with redevelopment of Harvey in the BOC.
Did they trend North ? Or did the Euro ensembles trend south ?
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Rgv20
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:Rgv20 wrote:Thru day 4 the 12zECMWF Ensembles are coming in more aggressive with redevelopment of Harvey in the BOC.
Did they trend North ? Or did the Euro ensembles trend south ?
There is quite a spread on them anywhere from Veracruz to NE Mexico. The Ensemble Control Run has an identical track but weaker as the Operational Run.
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Thetxhurricanemaster
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Rgv20 wrote:Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:Rgv20 wrote:Thru day 4 the 12zECMWF Ensembles are coming in more aggressive with redevelopment of Harvey in the BOC.
Did they trend North ? Or did the Euro ensembles trend south ?
There is quite a spread on them anywhere from Veracruz to NE Mexico. The Ensemble Control Run has an identical track but weaker as the Operational Run.
Do any of them show southern texas landfall ? I'm just wondering
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Rgv20
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
One Ensemble has landfall just South of Brownsville moving NW and another one that goes rogue and moves to mid LA coast as a strong hurricane.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Here's a good example of why the NAM south of 25N isn't very good. We all know that sometimes it's decent for further north latitude systems. But when something is as far south as Harvey's remnants, it's likely to fail.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
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Thetxhurricanemaster
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Rgv20 wrote::uarrow: One Ensemble has landfall just South of Brownsville moving NW and another one that goes rogue and moves to mid LA coast as a strong hurricane.
Lol its probably not going to LA but I cant rule out the southern texas coast ..... really IMO anyone from Matagorda Bay to Veracruz Mexico needs to watch this ..... the models are still flip flopping so I'm not gonna predict landfall yet that would be crazy
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South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
18z GFS coming in much farther north. Looks like we're starting to get a consensus that this will redevelop in the southwest Gulf and make landfall somewhere north of Veracruz late this week.
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