Slim chance??? but scary just the same

Rainband · #1 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 8:24 am

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi?time=2003100100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

#2 Postby **TampaFl** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 8:41 am

Agree Rainband. noticed that early this morning also. :o Of course, this is only one model run. Lets just see what transpires.

Robert

GulfBreezer · #3 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 9:43 am

Let's wait for a trend to show itself and so far I have seen no trends with any of the models. Timing (once again) is going to be everything! :?

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 9:47 am

GulfBreezer wrote:Let's wait for a trend to show itself and so far I have seen no trends with any of the models. Timing (once again) is going to be everything! :?

Agreed

Steve H. · #5 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 10:08 am

Actually its not just one run. Its been several runs now. And with the strong Pacific jet and associated energy dropping into the SW next week, then across the CONUS, it is IMO a possibility that is more than slim. IF it stays over water AND if it stays in the BOC, things COULD get interesting next week. The scenario COULD play out. That siad it COULD go into Mexico, or play with the coastline there. But there is tropical trouble brewing there over the next few days. :roll:

GulfBreezer · #6 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 10:18 am

I agree Steve, it is just that the timing has to be right for any of the ablove scenarios and we are just simply back the the "wait and see" stage! Seems we do that alot lately. Usually with any system in the BOC or GOM we have more ideas on track and intensity but with all of the fronts coming down it is really just anyones guess. It is supposed to be 48 degrees Friday morning here!! BRRR

Steve H. · #7 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 11:09 am

12 Canadian pretty much the same through 72 hours. Might be a few miles further west near the MX coast. ETA has it hanging out in the BOC through 84 hours. GFS at 12Z still pushes it slowly into the SW BOC coastline, then into MX.

shaner · #8 Postby **shaner** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 11:11 am

Ok. I need your help guys. First, what is the BOC?

Secondly, what on that Pressure map looks alarming? Is it that low pressure storm hugging the Gulf coast?

Ginx snewx · #9 Postby **Ginx snewx** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 11:42 am

Bay of Campeche

shaner · #10 Postby **shaner** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 11:48 am

Ahhh...the Bay of Campeche. Thank you kind sir.

#11 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 12:34 pm

Ominous model, but that is a mighty sharp turn. Timing is key. If that model pans out, it will be serious for many.

ChaserUK · #12 Postby **ChaserUK** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 1:21 pm

Actually that run also looks scarey for the UK dare I say! What are the chanes of this one then?

#13 Postby **Deenac813** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 4:48 pm

Yikes.. I dont like the looks of that..

#14 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 5:03 pm

Does anyone have an updated link? This is from the 00Z run. Thanks, Lynn

Slim chance??? but scary just the same

Slim chance??? but scary just the same

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