ATL: TEN - Models

[jlauderdal]

12z Model Tracks/Intensity...


Definite uptick in intensity and north shift on 12z...

xtrp as good as anything until further notice..

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

12z Model Tracks/Intensity...


Definite uptick in intensity and north shift on 12z...

xtrp as good as anything until further notice..

This likely will be driving OTS if it any develops at all

[Florida1118]

12z Model Tracks/Intensity...

Definite uptick in intensity and north shift on 12z...

xtrp as good as anything until further notice..

This likely will be driving OTS if it any develops at all

And what leads you to say that?

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

xtrp as good as anything until further notice..

This likely will be driving OTS if it any develops at all

And what leads you to say that?

Well if you look at the pattern a huge trough is gonna dive down at day 5 ..... which will then lead to this turning OTS it may scrape the East coast or Florida but low chance This gets toward the Gulf or west coast of florida

[ronjon]

This likely will be driving OTS if it any develops at all

And what leads you to say that?

Well if you look at the pattern a huge trough is gonna dive down at day 5 ..... which will then lead to this turning OTS it may scrape the East coast or Florida but low chance This gets toward the Gulf or west coast of florida

The Canadian GEM is the only global model that has the OTS scenario. That is due to the disturbance near the Cabo Verde Islands turning into a mega hurricane and riding north in the western Atlantic which erodes the ridge. Doesn't seem likely with GEM;s penchant to overdo tropical systems. The other model with OTS is TABM model is a BETA advection model that doesn't respond well to global mid-level circulation patterns - you'll also notice that it's about a day later on reaching the Bahamas then the other suite of models.

[Steve]

GFS moves 92L into SE FL, has it crossing the peninsula, exiting south of tampa, and becoming more defined in the gulf. At that point a turn to the north into the central GOM is reasonable. CMC's latest run has 92L recurving east of FL and going OTS. Since it's so far out, I still expect the models to show quite a bit of shifting from run to run, but hopefully soon they will become more consistent so we will have a better handle on potential track. I don't expect it to be any stronger than a tropical storm at most, but we should watch to see if shear, the TUTT, and ULL have much less shearing impact than expected, for example, if 92L becomes oriented at a distance or position relative to TUTT to ventilate the system or enhance upper level divergence and forced ascent. In that case, there is potential for a stronger system, but I'm currently not expecting that at this time. Nevertheless, it is late August so keep paying attention to it.

CMC doesn't go out to sea. It hits Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts FWIW. I think it's a bit early for that scenario personally, but we could see that type of track in a few weeks.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=173

[storm4u]

Canadian would be devastating up here.. Likely won't happen but its not ots

And what leads you to say that?

Well if you look at the pattern a huge trough is gonna dive down at day 5 ..... which will then lead to this turning OTS it may scrape the East coast or Florida but low chance This gets toward the Gulf or west coast of florida

The Canadian GEM is the only global model that has the OTS scenario. That is due to the disturbance near the Cabo Verde Islands turning into a mega hurricane and riding north in the western Atlantic which erodes the ridge. Doesn't seem likely with GEM;s penchant to overdo tropical systems. The other model with OTS is TABM model is a BETA advection model that doesn't respond well to global mid-level circulation patterns - you'll also notice that it's about a day later on reaching the Bahamas then the other suite of models.

[gatorcane]

00Z COAMPS:

[gatorcane]

Word about the models: For Gert, the ECMWF was one of the first models to pick up on development. It didn't do so until 99L/Gert was a couple of hundred miles NE of Lesser Antilles a good bit further away than 92L is now. I am curious if the models start picking up on this when it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles. We always thought going into this season that the upgraded models may not give a lot of warning (like 3-5 days). This may be one of those cases.

[SFLcane]

57 i see you...ready to lay down the hammer on this one? Whats your take.

[gatorcane]

Fwiw, the 6z GFS shows stronger vorticity hitting south florida. Its not a TD or TS but its the stongest vort signal from the model in a while

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201708 ... 5ae18f.png


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Taking a closer look at the upper-level shearing charts, we see the GFS developing a pretty substantial upper-level high (anticyclonic upper-level flow) in the Bahamas which I think is why the vort is a bit stronger (plus the 92L is a bit north on this run to get under that High). GFS has been trending with upper anticyclonic flow in the vicinity of Florida. Oddly sometimes the upgraded GFS won't develop a cyclone underneath these conditions. It is especially perplexing that the GFS does not show substantial development in the Gulf with a huge anticyclone on top of it for days and days (finally at the end of the run it does). Need to watch this trend closely:

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS with no development

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the 12z GFS shear I'm not seeing much that would inhibit development in the Bahamas. I'm still not sure what the GFS is seeing.

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS with no development

Gfs is going to get destroyed on this forum if 92 develops next week

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[Bocadude85]

Looking at the 12z GFS shear I'm not seeing much that would inhibit development in the Bahamas. I'm still not sure what the GFS is seeing.

Well we had better batten down the hatches for the arrival of tropical wave 92L...atleast the models are consistent in bringing this to Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

Notice the forward speed that the GFS has this moving at. It has it approaching South/Central Florida by 12z on Tuesday. That is almost a full day to day and a half faster than what the NHC is showing on their 5 day chart.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS with no development

Gfs is going to get destroyed on this forum if 92 develops next week

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I think there will be plenty of criticism to go around considering that the Euro hasn't done much with 92L either. On the other hand, I'm keeping my bottle of ketchup handy in case I need it to help choke down some crow.

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS with no development

Gfs is going to get destroyed on this forum if 92 develops next week

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I think there will be plenty of criticism to go around considering that the Euro hasn't done much with 92L either. On the other hand, I'm keeping my bottle of ketchup handy in case I need it to help choke down some crow.

The ULL that the GFS has destroy 92L can be seen developing on the water vapor loop..the GFS may very well be correct this time.

[gatorcane]

UKMET bullish again:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 24.7N 74.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.08.2017 84 24.7N 74.6W 1012 28
1200UTC 22.08.2017 96 25.4N 76.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 23.08.2017 108 25.5N 77.8W 1007 29
1200UTC 23.08.2017 120 25.7N 78.3W 1000 41
0000UTC 24.08.2017 132 25.8N 78.3W 992 50
1200UTC 24.08.2017 144 26.1N 78.0W 985 58

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET very bullish again:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 24.7N 74.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.08.2017 84 24.7N 74.6W 1012 28
1200UTC 22.08.2017 96 25.4N 76.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 23.08.2017 108 25.5N 77.8W 1007 29
1200UTC 23.08.2017 120 25.7N 78.3W 1000 41
0000UTC 24.08.2017 132 25.8N 78.3W 992 50
1200UTC 24.08.2017 144 26.1N 78.0W 985 58

Gatorcane,

Enough! I cannot take any more of this!!


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