Oh an this is why--- Avila: "The GFS and the ECMWF global models are just a little more enthusiastic in keeping the cyclone from dissipating in this last run, but who knows what they might forecast the next time."
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only 5?
and they are not concerned at the possibility of a TC in the GOM in 7 days? I don't know about you but that possibility, for the common amateur weather dude like me, is concerning. Especially when the EURO is sniffing. GFS is garbage this year which in post verification it will show the EURO crushed it this year.[/quote]
Five, yeah, but really I only talk with one about 20 times a day.
So far, no. Their thinking is that the models aren't handling what is an overload of weather data, along with 92l out there and the potential interaction. Basically, they think that there's way too many factors right now, so the uncertainty is even much higher than it normally would be, even under ideal model circumstances. I've not seen so much distrust in models like I have this season, and that's with over 15 years of this in my background. Doesn't mean they aren't paying attention though, and you can bet if we see another two Euro runs like that one, they'll be a little change in tone.
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And now let us inject Dr. Neil Frank, who has forgotten more about tropical cyclones than most of combined, always be vigilant. Never give up watching until a system is dead. ( Wxman 57 stated that too). Never let your guard down. He stated anywhere from Mexico to Louisiana should pay attention to this. When the NHC watches/plans a track on SHIPS as opposed to Euro/GFS, then that speaks to what Soupbone said. They just do not trust the models. Very quirky year.
it usually picks out a trend first then others follow. 08 was a prime example.