ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Good look at the players

[Steve]

Isn't this about the time where the CMC makes it SW dip?

It is on a different trajectory. It's showing a potential threat to the SE instead of the ENC Gulf.

[stormlover2013]

Gah these models are giving me headaches !!

[SouthFLTropics]

There's the dip at 126 hours

[AxaltaRacing24]

108 Hrs begins the SW dip

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the 00z CMC is going to follow it's 12z ensembles with a recurve east of Florida

[SouthFLTropics]

It's gonna hook up the spine of the Peninsula or the West Coast this time.

[Steve]

As comedic as those maps look, I think they are closer to what we see by miles than the GFS depictions. A stark difference is that the GFS favors a stronger and larger Harvey, while Canadian likes Irma.

[Hurricaneman]

Canadian stays off the east coast

[SouthFLTropics]

Ha...Pulls a Jacquin...Stalls and then up and out

[sma10]

Based on the uk output, i think it comes as no surprise that the truth between the model camps is the murky middle.

Have a feeling development will be greatly delayed and 5 days from now we will have a stalled "something" right off the SE FL coast

[SouthFLTropics]

Slower progression allows the trough to dig further and kicks it out before it can approach Florida. Throw another piece into the puzzle. We've got a new solution to toy with.

[Steve]

It stalls out and moves north but misses the connection with the exiting low. Does another ridge come down from VA or so and block? Critical timing up there for a recurve or a shortcut storm.

Also would J storm pump the ridge to its south, or would it erode the western side of the ridge for an alleyway?

[SouthFLTropics]

I think it will follow 93L out to sea.

[PTrackerLA]

OTS on CMC and Harvey dives WSW into Mexico as a cane at the end. Anyone have the 00z UKMet yet?

[SouthFLTropics]

Could be a close call for Cape Cod

[sma10]

It stalls out and moves north but misses the connection with the exiting low. Does another ridge come down from VA or so and block? Critical timing up there for a recurve or a shortcut storm.

And let's not forget the biggest wild card of all: it's the Canadian model at 7-8 days out!

[stormlover2013]

I mean are the models that bad now ?

[sma10]

OTS on CMC and Harvey dives WSW into Mexico as a cane at the end. Anyone have the 00z UKMet yet?

Uk delays development until hr 120. It has the system meandering, but strengthening at 27.0 79.0 which is just east of west palm beach

[AxaltaRacing24]

I mean are the models that bad now ?

Yes. Literally anything is in play.