ATL: HARVEY - Models

[tolakram]

12Z Euro still dissipates after the islands.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Similar to the previous run except slower, regeneration near the coast.

[stormlover2013]

Huge shift north

[Alyono]

976mb near Tampico on the EC

[stormlover2013]

Aly, that's more north right ?

[stormreader]

Huge shift north

Definitely further north than runs a couple of days ago. But still, at this point, no threat to the USA. Bears watching.

[Alyono]

Aly, that's more north right ?

yeah, ec shifted north

[stormlover2013]

By how many miles u think ?

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

By how many miles u think ?

200 maybe 300

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM shifted north as well

[stormreader]

By how many miles u think ?

200 maybe 300

The northerly shift is significant. Has to be noted. It is the Euro. And we're still many many days from a potential entry into the GOM.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

By how many miles u think ?

200 maybe 300

The northerly shift is significant. Has to be noted. It is the Euro. And we're still many many days from a potential entry into the GOM.

Models seem to be trending North

[stormreader]

12Z NAVGEM shifted north as well

My hunch is that it won't shift back south either (going to have some northerly component in the Caribbean).

[stormreader]

200 maybe 300

The northerly shift is significant. Has to be noted. It is the Euro. And we're still many many days from a potential entry into the GOM.

Models seem to be trending North

Yeah, wondering about the GOM. Franklin was forced back west (and even south of west) in the GOM. Interesting to see the angle it takes in the Yucatan area. We will be in late August when "potential Harvey" arrives in GOM (if forecast bears out). Depends on conditions, but I think climo would call for at least some northerly component in the GOM if it makes a central to north Yucatan crossing. Not necessarily, but more likely than Franklin.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

The northerly shift is significant. Has to be noted. It is the Euro. And we're still many many days from a potential entry into the GOM.

Models seem to be trending North

Yeah, wondering about the GOM. Franklin was forced back west (and even south of west) in the GOM. Interesting to see the angle it takes in the Yucatan area. We will be in late August when "potential Harvey" arrives in GOM (if forecast bears out). Depends on conditions, but I think climo would call for at least some northerly component in the GOM if it makes a central to north Yucatan crossing. Not necessarily, but more likely than Franklin.

Some models like the EURO show a very complex steering pattern at day 5 through 8 which can slow the system and maybe even stall it !

[RL3AO]

I'm looking closer at the GFS and trying to figure out why it opens up the system into a wave.




I'm perplexed. We have a tropical storm entering the Caribbean with ever increasing mid-level moisture, decreasing shear, and an unstable environment. Even the VP anomalies show divergence over the Caribbean in the GFS forecast.

It appears to be producing limited convection unlike the waves in the eastern Atlantic which it has been over-doing convection with. I'm lost. Any other mets have an idea?

[hd44]

Gfs shows northerly shear, all be it light. I agree this system probably will degenerate and then re form.

[Emmett_Brown]

The Euro weakens it to an open wave in the central Caribbean, closing it off again in the gulf of Honduras, so both the Euro and GFS don't like it. Perhaps to fast a forward speed?

[Emmett_Brown]

The Euro also weakens it to an open wave in the central Caribbean, closing it off again in the gulf of Honduras, so both the Euro and GFS don't like it. Perhaps to fast a forward speed?