ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Alyono]

UKMET calling for development in the eastern Caribbean

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.3N 71.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.08.2017 96 14.3N 71.1W 1006 29
1200UTC 20.08.2017 108 14.8N 75.5W 1006 31
0000UTC 21.08.2017 120 15.6N 78.8W 1006 31
1200UTC 21.08.2017 132 16.1N 82.8W 1006 28
0000UTC 22.08.2017 144 16.9N 85.7W 1008 28

[Alyono]

Canadian also calling for eastern Caribbean development

NHC seems to be in the wrong when they say the environment will become less favorable with time. It appears as if it may be the opposite. This could be because the trailing systems block any SAL surges going forward

[StormTracker]

Canadian also calling for eastern Caribbean development

NHC seems to be in the wrong when they say the environment will become less favorable with time. It appears as if it may be the opposite. This could be because the trailing systems block any SAL surges going forward

I was just wondering about that, plus the ULL helping to ventilate it, depending on it's positioning, right?

[Alyono]

EC has this moving at turtle speed in the Gulf of Honduras, allowing it to intensify significantly

[Alyono]

into the BOC

[hd44]

This has a good shot form with both Jma/ Ecmwf on board.

[hd44]

[Alyono]

GFS has a convective feedback driven mega EPAC cane(it's 25th of the season), so it does not allow this to develop in the western Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm for Nicaragua/Honduras on 12z GFS.

[Alyono]

Tropical Storm for Nicaragua/Honduras on 12z GFS.

gets pulled to into the EPAC due to a convective feedback phantom

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=170

here is the CMC

Alyono can we trust the GFS anymore???

[hd44]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2017081612&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=170

here is the CMC

Alyono can we trust the GFS anymore???

When you dont see phanton jumping low pressures , yes it can be given some weight. Gfs does decent with steering .

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.8N 55.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2017 36 13.8N 57.2W 1009 28
1200UTC 18.08.2017 48 14.0N 61.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 19.08.2017 60 14.4N 64.9W 1007 29
1200UTC 19.08.2017 72 14.4N 69.0W 1005 32
0000UTC 20.08.2017 84 14.8N 72.9W 1004 35
1200UTC 20.08.2017 96 15.1N 77.4W 1001 39
0000UTC 21.08.2017 108 15.3N 81.6W 999 39
1200UTC 21.08.2017 120 15.6N 85.2W 1003 36
0000UTC 22.08.2017 132 16.1N 88.5W 1006 28
1200UTC 22.08.2017 144 CEASED TRACKING

caribbean #1

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Lol with the resolution that would be a category 5 hurricane by the JMA

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF develops just east of islands and gets stronger in Caribbean Sea.

[cycloneye]

Belize landfall.

[stormreader]

I think this model run is significant. Even though I know its early and there are usually changes back and forth. But the Euro is now showing a more northerly component in the Caribbean (after many consecutive runs (so I've been told) of due west into Central America. Showing a stronger system, too, which probably factors into this. According to mets here, conditions in the Caribbean seem to be improving. After much fretting about 92 L it is possible that Texas (and I'll go out on a limb) and possibly even SW La may have to deal with this system.

[Bocadude85]

I think this model run is significant. Even though I know its early and there are usually changes back and forth. But the Euro is now showing a more northerly component in the Caribbean (after many consecutive runs (so I've been told) of due west into Central America. Showing a stronger system, too, which probably factors into this. According to mets here, conditions in the Caribbean seem to be improving. After much fretting about 92 L it is possible that Texas (and I'll go out on a limb) and possibly even SW La may have to deal with this system.

The 8-16-17 12Z run of the JMA is weaker and and farther south, landfall in Belize.

[stormreader]

So I know its just one Euro run. But I think we still have to be wary. If the Euro is hinting further north (for the first time), I'm going to take notice. Especially since it is implying a stronger storm (makes sense). Storm definitely organizing. This pic shows heavy t-storms now congregating over a location which appears to be very close to the "center" of f91l.

[cycloneye]