ATL: HARVEY - Models

[AubreyStorm]

Really?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91L_41.png

[tolakram]

Weaker trend, just like the other models. So far anyway.

[Siker]

Looks like it's takin in some SAL from the southwest on the Euro.

[WeatherEmperor]

Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[tolakram]

Looking at Weatherbell, 0Z vs 12Z run. Location the same (possibly a little SW of 0Z run) but weaker.

[tolakram]

[Steve]

Looking at Weatherbell, 0Z vs 12Z run. Location the same (possibly a little SW of 0Z run) but weaker.

Agree @ 96 hours. Now heading for the central islands like French Martinique and Dominica instead of the northern ones (French Guadeloupe and Montserrat). It's also heading about due west at 96 hours.

South of Puerto Rico at 120 hours. Much weaker for now but big low exiting off the NE Coast so probably high pressure coming in behind. We'll see.

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

dissipated

I stand by my statement of nothing imminent in the tropical Atlantic

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

dissipated

I stand by my statement of nothing imminent in the tropical Atlantic

It's developing the next wave, which I suspect will have a similar outcome.

[South Texas Storms]

dissipated

I stand by my statement of nothing imminent in the tropical Atlantic

Way too early to say that with any confidence.

[RL3AO]

Like I said before the Euro. If we get no development, that's more interesting than if they do. These should both develop.

[Alyono]

dissipated

I stand by my statement of nothing imminent in the tropical Atlantic

It's developing the next wave, which I suspect will have a similar outcome.

yep, showing something is very hostile in the Atlantic given that it always develops the waves over Africa, then gradually backs off once they reach the water. Not sure what it is. But, I am becoming more confident to NOT use Kelvin Waves in forecasting genesis. There may be another type of wave that is counter acting, not sure. Beyond my expertise.

[HurricaneBrain]

Regenerates at 168... Wonder if it'll show a strengthening system as it approaches YP.

[Alyono]

dissipated

I stand by my statement of nothing imminent in the tropical Atlantic

Way too early to say that with any confidence.

may form once it approaches the Yucatan or in the BOC. May not be that different from Franklin

[South Texas Storms]

I'm thinking this system's best chance at development may very well be in the western Caribbean. That's been where a lot of storms have developed over the past few years.

[tolakram]

[srainhoutx]

dissipated

I stand by my statement of nothing imminent in the tropical Atlantic

Key word...imminent. Careful about dismissing this area of disturbed weather completely. Ironically today marks the Anniversary of a twave that trekked across the Atlantic and Caribbean only to quickly organize on August 13, 1932 near the Yucatan and make landfall on August 14th at Freeport, TX as a Category 4 Major Hurricane. I will go with climatology over any one run of a dynamical computer model any day.

[AutoPenalti]

It's one model run that, frankly, hasn't been doing so well so far this season with genesis.

It's 10+ days out, between then and now, models can change their output 30-40 times.