ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Hurricaneman]

Way north of the islands on this run should recurve but we'll see.

Not with that ridge on top

[Miami Storm Tracker]

wow no consistency I know it in the super long range, and nothing has developed. But what a swing from the privous run.

[FLpanhandle91]

Ridging much stronger this run. I expect no recurve going further into this run.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

BLP,

And a strong ridge at that. Will be interesting to see what the ERUO shows later this evening.

[blp]

I would not look at the strength of the system. GFS way too inconsistent. Look at the 500mb level for the ridge versus through placement.

[blp]

That is a blocking pattern. Has to go west.

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.4N 63.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2017 108 15.4N 63.3W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.08.2017 120 15.2N 67.7W 1007 28
1200UTC 19.08.2017 132 16.0N 71.5W 1007 31
0000UTC 20.08.2017 144 16.1N 75.0W 1005 33

Canadian DISSIPATES entirely

May be yet ANOTHER false alarm from the models

[Alyono]

mentioned in other thread, CMC dissipates the west system and 91L

Maybe a 50/50 or greater chance this was a one off from the models over reacting to the large convective envelope earlier today.

[FLpanhandle91]

mentioned in other thread, CMC dissipates the west system and 91L

Maybe a 50/50 or greater chance this was a one off from the models over reacting to the large convective envelope earlier today.

What a crazy next week it's going to be. Thoughts on the system CMC has developing behind these two being foretasted in the Caribbean?

[Alyono]

mentioned in other thread, CMC dissipates the west system and 91L

Maybe a 50/50 or greater chance this was a one off from the models over reacting to the large convective envelope earlier today.

What a crazy next week it's going to be. Thoughts on the system CMC has developing behind these two being foretasted in the Caribbean?

I don't even care what it is saying that far out. The models are struggling with 3 day genesis, much less 10

[SFLcane]

Intensifying moving wsw in Bahamas

[blp]

mentioned in other thread, CMC dissipates the west system and 91L

Maybe a 50/50 or greater chance this was a one off from the models over reacting to the large convective envelope earlier today.

What a crazy next week it's going to be. Thoughts on the system CMC has developing behind these two being foretasted in the Caribbean?

I don't even care what it is saying that far out. The models are struggling with 3 day genesis, much less 10

Amazing don't recall seeing so much inconsistency in the short to medium range.

[blp]

Not even bothering with the GFS. Can't even get a consistent upper environment forecast from run to run.

This is why I don't care much for upgrades. Most of the time they don't live up to the hype and the new features introduce regression bugs that break things that were working fine before.

[Kingarabian]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.4N 63.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2017 108 15.4N 63.3W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.08.2017 120 15.2N 67.7W 1007 28
1200UTC 19.08.2017 132 16.0N 71.5W 1007 31
0000UTC 20.08.2017 144 16.1N 75.0W 1005 33

Canadian DISSIPATES entirely

May be yet ANOTHER false alarm from the models

What a terrible year to be a global model.

[Kingarabian]

mentioned in other thread, CMC dissipates the west system and 91L

Maybe a 50/50 or greater chance this was a one off from the models over reacting to the large convective envelope earlier today.

What a crazy next week it's going to be. Thoughts on the system CMC has developing behind these two being foretasted in the Caribbean?

I don't even care what it is saying that far out. The models are struggling with 3 day genesis, much less 10

Variance in the long range from run to run is acceptable. But I can't recall models as a whole struggling in their 3-5 day forecasts.

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.4N 63.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2017 108 15.4N 63.3W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.08.2017 120 15.2N 67.7W 1007 28
1200UTC 19.08.2017 132 16.0N 71.5W 1007 31
0000UTC 20.08.2017 144 16.1N 75.0W 1005 33

Canadian DISSIPATES entirely

May be yet ANOTHER false alarm from the models

What a terrible year to be a global model.

it's like back to the early 2000s

[northjaxpro]

Yeah the 500 mb ridge looks very strong on that run. That is an omnious sign as no recurve scenario in that scenario if this comes to fruition.

[HurricaneEric]

00z Euro has a 1009mb TD in 48 hrs from the feature west of 91L

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

[northjaxpro]

I am leaning as well that this robust area near 35 Longitude will take over as the main area. 91L will merge into it.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has this about to enter a wide open GOM as an intensifying TC.