ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Ivanhater]

Gulf Bound!

[gatorcane]

How the run ends. weakness over Florida and EGOM probably would head right up into South Florida or EGOM

[Alyono]

988mb approaching the Florida Keys on the EC at 240 hrs

[sma10]

Never forget the tried and true "Tropical Bulls-Eye Law": It's a decent bet that this system doesn't directly hit Hispaniola.

[Alyono]

on the full res EC, it gets down to 991mb and makes a direct hit on Dominica

Looks like it makes landfall on Martinique as a strong tropical storm on the full resolution ECMWF: See this link

you're right. Got my islands mixed up

[tolakram]

It's also possible that this system does indeed merge with what is now 91L.

[floridasun78]

Alyono is this one that i put sat pic that round 30 w ? i talk to nhc their say dont good low with it their more intest with 91l

[blp]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/896695602720931841

[floridasun78]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/896695602720931841

that one by cape(91l) we talking about one by 35w

[Alyono]

Alyono is this one that i put sat pic that round 30 w ? i talk to nhc their say dont good low with it their more intest with 91l

looks to be around 11.5N, 33.5W

[WeatherEmperor]

It's also possible that this system does indeed merge with what is now 91L.

The NHC agrees with your thinking as per the 2pm update.


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[floridasun78]

Alyono is this one that i put sat pic that round 30 w ? i talk to nhc their say dont good low with it their more intest with 91l

looks to be around 11.5N, 33.5W

yes that one that was sat at 30west now at 35w i surprise that nhc not picking up this one their like 91l better

[Kingarabian]

So in the long range: GFS has a cat.3 recurving well east of Florida and the Euro has a system about to enter the gulf. So a split of their respective tracks would mean SE USA may be under the gun.

[Alyono]

So in the long range: GFS has a cat.3 recurving well east of Florida and the Euro has a system about to enter the gulf. So a split of their respective tracks would mean SE USA may be under the gun.

dont think you can split the tracks since they are two separate systems. GFS develops 91L. EC develops this one. Seems to be more model support for this system

[northjaxpro]

Very, very interesting runs just posted. Things may get very interesting the next 7-10 days on this forum if the newest runs come to fruition.

[Kingarabian]

So in the long range: GFS has a cat.3 recurving well east of Florida and the Euro has a system about to enter the gulf. So a split of their respective tracks would mean SE USA may be under the gun.

dont think you can split the tracks since they are two separate systems. GFS develops 91L. EC develops this one. Seems to be more model support for this system

You don't think they'll merge?

[floridasun78]

91invest vs maybe invest 92? this likely wont part of invest 91 maybe new invest more toward west i bet people in windwards are looking big tropical wave coming day

[p1nheadlarry]

It's also possible that this system does indeed merge with what is now 91L.

The NHC agrees with your thinking as per the 2pm update.


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If that's the case it won't likely develop as quickly as the GFS has it I would surmise.

[Alyono]

So in the long range: GFS has a cat.3 recurving well east of Florida and the Euro has a system about to enter the gulf. So a split of their respective tracks would mean SE USA may be under the gun.

dont think you can split the tracks since they are two separate systems. GFS develops 91L. EC develops this one. Seems to be more model support for this system

You don't think they'll merge?

not sure. There's so much model support for this lead one that I do not know if it will merge

[WAcyclone]

That's an interesting track predicted by the UKMET. No sign of gaining any latitude through 168 hours: