ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO at 40%-60%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 300 miles east of the Turks and Caicos
Islands have changed little in organization since this morning.
Dry air aloft and unfavorable upper-level winds have limited
significant development during the past few days. Environmental
conditions, however, are expected to become a little more conducive
for development during the next day or two, and this system could
become a tropical depression over the weekend. The low is forecast
to move generally northwestward through the weekend and is likely
to turn northeastward away from the United States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[ScottNAtlanta]

A convective burst just went off right over the LLC that has been out front for the last couple of days, and its not going NW. It is going W. I dont think models have a grip on this system at all

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2017081200, , BEST, 0, 225N, 670W, 25, 1012, LO

[Nimbus]

Just a single hot tower over the center this evening.
The water vapor imagery is starting to show a little more moisture in the upper levels, but usually there is considerable moisture feedback for the inflow from a wide precipitation field.
Models will start getting interesting once they are initialized with a TD.

[xironman]

Looks like it is through the worst of the mid level dry air, maybe dmax will show something

[AutoPenalti]

A convective burst just went off right over the LLC that has been out front for the last couple of days, and its not going NW. It is going W. I dont think models have a grip on this system at all

Not sure what you're looking at but it's actually moving WNW/NW, most likely its the convection building from west to east that gives it the illusion.

[Hammy]

We're not getting an ASCAT pass tonight as it looks like it's going to be directly between the two passes. Outflow looks like it's improving on all but the SE quad which has me wondering if this is too small for the models to even pick up.

[txwatcher91]

We're not getting an ASCAT pass tonight as it looks like it's going to be directly between the two passes. Outflow looks like it's improving on all but the SE quad which has me wondering if this is too small for the models to even pick up.

Of note, the 18z 3km NAM has this as a 973mb cane at the end of its run. Yes that seems extreme but if it has low shear then I could easily see this becoming a hurricane.

[Nimbus]

Extrapolated motion from 20N -60w through its current location would take it into Cape Canaveral.
But there is still a digging trough forecast by the models(I think).

[Sciencerocks]

Best chance for this to get named is once it recurves off to the northwest, north and northeast. Conditions could be more favorable for it to get named....

[ScottNAtlanta]

A convective burst just went off right over the LLC that has been out front for the last couple of days, and its not going NW. It is going W. I dont think models have a grip on this system at all

Not sure what you're looking at but it's actually moving WNW/NW, most likely its the convection building from west to east that gives it the illusion.

I'm not sure where you are getting your motion. I am following the LLC we have been following for a couple of days. I see no northward component in association with that
This is what I am looking at
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[AutoPenalti]

A convective burst just went off right over the LLC that has been out front for the last couple of days, and its not going NW. It is going W. I dont think models have a grip on this system at all

Not sure what you're looking at but it's actually moving WNW/NW, most likely its the convection building from west to east that gives it the illusion.

I'm not sure where you are getting your motion. I am following the LLC we have been following for a couple of days. I see no northward component in association with that
This is what I am looking at
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I'm starting to see what you mean, that's actually quite interesting. Hopefully I'm wrong but that could definitely impede the track further to the west.

[StormTracker]

Looks flat-lined west between 67-68 W to me, but WX57 says it's right on point with the NHC's trajectory!

[StormTracker]

No model watching tonight? OMG!
Users browsing this forum: StormTracker and 3 guests @12:18 a.m.!

[AutoPenalti]

No model watching tonight? OMG!
Users browsing this forum: StormTracker and 3 guests @12:18 a.m.!

There could be two or three reasons why:

A) a lot of confidence that it will be OTS
B) some models are starting to drop development (again)
C) all of the above

[StormTracker]

No model watching tonight? OMG!
Users browsing this forum: StormTracker and 3 guests @12:18 a.m.!

There could be two or three reasons why:

A) a lot of confidence that it will be OTS
B) some models are starting to drop development (again)
C) all of the above

Yep, that's about it, in the middle of August! Who would've thunk it?

[Hammy]

No model watching tonight? OMG!
Users browsing this forum: StormTracker and 3 guests @12:18 a.m.!

There could be two or three reasons why:

A) a lot of confidence that it will be OTS
B) some models are starting to drop development (again)
C) all of the above

Yep, that's about it, in the middle of August! Who would've thunk it?

No different than this time last year really.N

[AxaltaRacing24]

There could be two or three reasons why:

A) a lot of confidence that it will be OTS
B) some models are starting to drop development (again)
C) all of the above

Yep, that's about it, in the middle of August! Who would've thunk it?

No different than this time last year really.N

IMO things were even worse last year due to lingering Nino/PDO effects. Then eventually once the PDO crashed, the shear soon followed and the rest is history.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

No model watching tonight? OMG!
Users browsing this forum: StormTracker and 3 guests @12:18 a.m.!

There could be two or three reasons why:

A) a lot of confidence that it will be OTS
B) some models are starting to drop development (again)
C) all of the above

Ill take D none of the above as i was enjoying some margaritas lol but just noticed yours and scottnatlantas convo and a couple pages back even saw this going more west than what models were showing, getting close to predicted curve ots and instead is goin toward the islands

[CyclonicFury]

No model watching tonight? OMG!
Users browsing this forum: StormTracker and 3 guests @12:18 a.m.!

There could be two or three reasons why:

A) a lot of confidence that it will be OTS
B) some models are starting to drop development (again)
C) all of the above

Which models are dropping development? UKMET still has it, CMC actually came in a little stronger at 00z and GFS never developed it in the first place.