ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

It looks like ASCAT is going to catch it tonight, per my calculations, hopefully.

[NDG]

Just a sharp trough of low pressure at the surface.

[chaser1]

Alright damn it, If each S2K Member can pitch in one lousy dollar and one of us forego's their planned "beer run" for a quick stop at their local 24 hr. Walmart and just buy a cheap drone.... we'll figure out how to fly our own data mining mission I'll donate one of my barometers if someone else will donate one of their cheap hand held anemometers. Heck, maybe even mount a small camera on the thing and we can all watch live as it drops into a death spin and perhaps nail us the equivalent of a poor man's vortex message. We'll get ourselves some cyclonic confirmation yet!

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Any indication its starting to recurve at all or is it moving wnw? Right now to my untrained eye it looks like its moving wnw

[Hurricaneman]

Any indication its starting to recurve at all or is it moving wnw? Right now to my untrained eye it looks like its moving wnw

Not expected to start to recurve for 72 hrs or so

[Emmett_Brown]

Any indication its starting to recurve at all or is it moving wnw? Right now to my untrained eye it looks like its moving wnw

Not expected to start to recurve for 72 hrs or so

Well, one thing that was predicted by the Euro didn't happen today, and that was the large northward jump of the vort. It looks like the southern vortex is the one that is more dominant.

[chaser1]

Any indication its starting to recurve at all or is it moving wnw? Right now to my untrained eye it looks like its moving wnw

Not expected to start to re-curve for 72 hrs or so

Well, one thing that was predicted by the Euro didn't happen today, and that was the large northward jump of the vort. It looks like the southern vortex is the one that is more dominant.

My guess is that the EURO will stubbornly try yanking it more pole-ward once again on this evenings 0Z run. On an entirely different note however....... imagine the shear fear that would overtake several million along the N. Gulf Coast if tonight's 0Z EURO out of nowhere had an explosive brain-fart and suddenly bombed out this tiny Westward moving COC just East of Miami, at some point approx 150 miles N.W. of Key West in roughly 60 or so hours?? It'll be Model Mania Popapalooza the likes we've yet to see lol

[HURAKAN]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands remain limited in extent and organization. Some slow development of this system is possible by this weekend while the trough moves northwestward over the western Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[HURAKAN]

00Z EC run shows no development

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017081000/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_5.png[img]

00Z EC run shows no development

Good to have you back!

[Aric Dunn]

The circ is exposed again. very easily seen on night time visible. convection building around it again though. shear is still high

[Nimbus]

The ULL to the north of 99l hasn't filled in yet so even though we likely have a TD near the corner of the Hebert box "development if any will be slow". HWRF got the location of 99l correct 7 days ago but overdid the intensity.

My Storm2K paypal donation receipt ended in 9292Y, and 1992 was the year hurricane Andrew devastated Florida after meandering as a weak TD for days.

[NDG]

Big comeback by the GFS at the end with 99L, it ended up tricking both models

[cycloneye]

8 AM EDT TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located about a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands have changed little overnight. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the weekend while the
system moves northwestward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Morning everyone,

Not much change in presentation since yesterday. The COC is still running out in front of and any storms attempting to build. It appears we still have a bit of wind shear keeping anything from forming.

[Aric Dunn]

The circ is still very well defined. With convection again developing over the center.. technically this is classifiable assuming of course reocn was there.. so it wont.

[wxman57]

It's behaving/tracking precisely as has been predicted for the past week. Still looks like it has a fair chance of becoming a TS as it recurves east of the Bahamas this weekend. I don't see any significant risk to the East U.S. Coast.

Nice view from the GOES-16 slider page. Weak LLC is easy to see.

[gatorcane]

Tough one for NHC and Storm2K members on this wave since it left Africa. In the end it may not develop but yet the NHC tracked it across the entire Atlantic with development chances as high as 80% at some point as models seemed to not really have a good grasp on this wave. When the wave was in the Eastern Atlantic it was the GFS which was too bullish while the ECMWF did not show development. Now in the Western Atlantic it was the reverse for a few days but now the ECMWF is finally caving in with no development.

[wxman57]

Tough one for NHC and Storm2K members on this wave since it left Africa. In the end it may not develop but yet the NHC tracked it across the entire Atlantic with development chances as high as 80% at some point as models seemed to not really have a good grasp on this wave. When the wave was in the Eastern Atlantic it was the GFS which was too bullish while the ECMWF did not show development. Now in the Western Atlantic it was the reverse for a few days but now the ECMWF is finally caving in with no development.

I think that the models, with the exception of the GFS earlier on, did very well. The Euro never did develop this wave or indicate any significant low until it neared the Bahamas. The NHC went all-in with the GFS with the wave struggling in the SAL outbreak.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Back when it was leaving the coast of Africa, it seemed even the NHC had high hopes of this wave developing. But because of SAL and the over all environment it just never got going.