ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS does not even factor in 99L's improved Vort today.

[northjaxpro]

99L is FINALLY beginning to get itself together. It won"t be very long for this to be labeled a TD or TS. Structure has improved significantly since earlier today.

Gonna need recon or an ASCAT pass for the NHC to bite.

I agree. But my sneaking suspicion is that ASCAT will confirm a well defined LLC. I have been wrong like others I am sure. But this, I feel quite confident!!

[NDG]

99L is FINALLY beginning to get itself together. It won"t be very long for this to be labeled a TD or TS. Structure has improved significantly since earlier today.

Gonna need recon or an ASCAT pass for the NHC to bite.

I agree. But my sneaking suspicion is that ASCAT will confirm a well defined LLC. I have been wrong like others I am sure. But this, I feel quite confident!!

Hopefully tonight will catch it, it has been missing it for the past 24 hrs.

[Kingarabian]

99L is FINALLY beginning to get itself together. It won"t be very long for this to be labeled a TD or TS. Structure has improved significantly since earlier today.

Gonna need recon or an ASCAT pass for the NHC to bite.

I agree. But my sneaking suspicion is that ASCAT will confirm a well defined LLC. I have been wrong like others I am sure. But this, I feel quite confident!!

Based on those earlier microwave passes I agree that it's certainly a defined and closed LLC. I think the NHC simply just wants ASCAT evidence.

I wonder since it's so small that models are not picking up on today's developments.

[HURRICANELONNY]

You can faintly see the ull low to its north slowly moving away in watervape loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Siker]

Gonna need recon or an ASCAT pass for the NHC to bite.

I agree. But my sneaking suspicion is that ASCAT will confirm a well defined LLC. I have been wrong like others I am sure. But this, I feel quite confident!!

Based on those earlier microwave passes I agree that it's certainly a defined and closed LLC. I think the NHC simply just wants ASCAT evidence.

I wonder since it's so small that models are not picking up on today's developments.

I think even if we had an ASCAT pass confirm it in the next 5 minutes they'd still wait until at least 5:00am if not 11:00am to name it just for persistence.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO at 20%-50%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located about 250 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands have become a little better organized during the afternoon.
The environment is forecast to become more conducive for development
by this weekend while the trough moves northwestward over the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/895417595993534464

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ens now showing a broad weak LPA east of the Bahamas sunaday , Moves it into the gulf
west of Florida. Close's off the low (weak) then tracks it NNE as a rain entity over the SE.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/895436091221614593

[blp]

You can faintly see the ull low to its north slowly moving away in watervape loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Yes indeed. It might now be in a position to help ventilate the system instead off shearing it. Very interesting.

[OuterBanker]

18z GFS does not even factor in 99L's improved Vort today.

http://i.imgur.com/xQ9e3t2.gif

King, is that not the Bahamas X that'she climbing up the FL coast to the Carolinas?
Yet, it doesn't even show 99l. Go figure.

[Hammy]

I'm going to say this looks almost closed at the moment--last light high-res visible showed some very slow west to east movement with the low cloud elements, turning SW to NE as it got closer to the convection.

[OuterBanker]

It also looks like it's going to cross just shy of 20n 60w. I.E. the 20/60 rule. Could still pose a threat to the seus. Not writing it off just yet.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2017081000, , BEST, 0, 184N, 578W, 25, 1013, LO

[Hammy]

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS does not even factor in 99L's improved Vort today.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/xQ9e3t2.gif[img]

King, is that not the Bahamas X that'she climbing up the FL coast to the Carolinas?
Yet, it doesn't even show 99l. Go figure.

It is. NHC needs to declare it an Invest.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

EC atm shifts the LPA around Bermuda, big split in the modelling.
Prefer to see some consist runs from the GFS before giving it any weight against the EC
solutions.

[AJC3]

I think even if we had an ASCAT pass confirm it in the next 5 minutes they'd still wait until at least 5:00am if not 11:00am to name it just for persistence.

Unfortunately, If I eyeballed this correctly, it looks like the METOP-B ascending pass was a clean miss, and the same will go for the upcoming METOP-A.

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't be surprised to see recon by Friday morning