Trough along the SE US Coast

[northjaxpro]

My computer back up and running.

Latest 850mb vorticity analysis. Definitely a marked increase over the Bahamas since yesterday.

[Stormcenter]

Game on folks.

Disorganized shower activity over the Bahamas is associated with a trough of low pressure. Although development appears unlikely, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


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[northjaxpro]

I swear no sooner than I posted about this system getting more attention, NHC gives it a mention in the 2:00 TWO
Well, someone there must be looking at this site uh.. Lol..

[northjaxpro]

Also. the thread title should be changed to encompass all of the Bahamas currently.

[LarryWx]

Per the 12Z models, this trough/wave looks to be move WNW and then NW/NNW in the vicinity of the FL peninsula tomorrow as it rotates clockwise around the Bermuda high. I agree with the NHC very low probability of it ever becoming a TC due to the lack of model support, it not currently looking organized, and it going over land by tomorrow. I also agree that the chance is greater than 0% (5% at most) meaning worth keeping a eye on it just in case it suddenly does the very unexpected, especially considering the very warm waters in the W. Bahamas. Kudos to northjax for being in top of this! The last 2 Euros actually have a VERY weak surface circulation developing at the last minute before it goes over FL fwiw. So, I'm calling it a VERY small chance it makes it to TD status by tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

It was mentioned this morning in the New Orleans NWS discussion.

a robust but open tropical wave over the eastern Bahamas will
continue to move west into the Gulf and south of the area over the
weekend. This feature is moving into a very hostile area as it
moves over the Gulf. Most of the sh/ts associated will be sheared
and pulled north into the current East Coast trough

[jlauderdal]

I swear no sooner than I posted about this system getting more attention, NHC gives it a mention in the 2:00 TWO
Well, someone there must be looking at this site uh.. Lol..

after ts emily we can never let our guard down in florida for these close in tstorms...

[jlauderdal]

[Patrick99]

To my untrained eye, if I look at recent water vapor loops, the ULL that had been associated with this has taken a dive SW over Cuba and filled in. Maybe a brief window to get something going before land.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Maybe we could get a quick spin up like Julia last year for Florida from this entity.

[northjaxpro]

To my untrained eye, if I look at recent water vapor loops, the ULL that had been associated with this has taken a dive SW over Cuba and filled in. Maybe a brief window to get something going before land.

Yes, the ULL did move WSW and filled. I discussed this earlier too as well.

[Blown Away]

I like that it was important to label the Lauderdale-By-The-Sea community...

[boca]

I'm hoping we get rain because the summer has been absent from afternoon and evening thunderstorms especially on the east coast

[jlauderdal]

I like that it was important to label the Lauderdale-By-The-Sea community...

gr level allows you to always show cities of your choosing, image has been rectified..

[JPmia]

I look forward to the nice tropical showers and breezes from this disturbance. It's hotter than hell down here.

[NDG]

Interesting little vorticity indeed.

[jlauderdal]

I'm hoping we get rain because the summer has been absent from afternoon and evening thunderstorms especially on the east coast

appears you will get rain over the next 24 hours

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just glad our east coast trough is once again back with a vengeance to promote a lot of shear over the gulf to tear this thing apart. Need a break from rain around the northern gulf coast. Have had a 60-70% chance everyday since Saturday and continues though this weekend. Very unsummer like for down here especially nearing mid August when it's usually our hottest and driest time

[jlauderdal]

I look forward to the nice tropical showers and breezes from this disturbance. It's hotter than hell down here.

its been a tough summer and the data reflects the higher than normal temperatures

[Hurricaneman]

Might get a short lived tropical depression from this if organization continues