ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

Higher flight level winds on the eastern side of the core with the most recent NOAA2 pass compared to the previous pass. Franklin continues to tighten. Would be shocked if this did not deepen to a middle of the road Category 1 Hurricane by landfall.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091359
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 34 20170809
134930 2020N 09502W 8427 01531 0055 +166 //// 002040 043 025 011 01
135000 2018N 09502W 8437 01519 0048 +171 //// 001036 037 025 013 01
135030 2016N 09502W 8417 01543 0049 +171 //// 359037 038 020 009 01
135100 2014N 09503W 8433 01526 0044 +176 +169 359036 037 023 005 00
135130 2012N 09503W 8428 01532 0046 +176 +168 000036 038 023 007 00
135200 2010N 09503W 8440 01524 0049 +175 //// 357039 040 024 005 01
135230 2008N 09504W 8428 01532 0047 +176 +161 359039 040 024 006 00
135300 2006N 09504W 8428 01534 0049 +176 +162 358040 041 026 005 00
135330 2005N 09504W 8432 01530 0049 +175 +169 355039 040 028 005 00
135400 2003N 09505W 8429 01537 0049 +173 //// 349038 041 031 009 01
135430 2001N 09505W 8432 01529 //// +174 //// 351042 044 032 008 01
135500 1959N 09505W 8434 01526 //// +178 //// 350042 044 028 008 01
135530 1957N 09506W 8432 01530 //// +171 //// 357045 047 031 005 01
135600 1955N 09506W 8423 01536 //// +173 //// 350041 043 032 005 01
135630 1953N 09506W 8429 01532 //// +172 //// 346041 041 031 007 01
135700 1951N 09507W 8430 01530 0048 +171 //// 345041 041 032 007 01
135730 1949N 09507W 8426 01534 0047 +171 //// 342042 043 033 006 01
135800 1947N 09507W 8426 01532 0051 +166 //// 336043 044 033 007 01
135830 1945N 09508W 8429 01530 0051 +165 //// 332044 045 033 007 01
135900 1943N 09508W 8428 01532 0051 +170 +168 331045 045 029 008 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

T4.0/4.0, hurricane next advisory?

When you have two recon planes, you don't need to follow Dvorak.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091409
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 35 20170809
135930 1941N 09508W 8426 01534 0053 +165 //// 327043 044 034 006 01
140000 1939N 09508W 8428 01535 0055 +168 +154 325043 043 034 006 00
140030 1937N 09509W 8425 01537 0054 +166 +163 326042 043 034 007 00
140100 1935N 09509W 8432 01532 0061 +158 //// 326043 043 034 007 01
140130 1934N 09509W 8426 01539 0057 +167 +165 324043 043 033 009 00
140200 1932N 09510W 8426 01540 0057 +170 +160 323042 043 034 007 00
140230 1930N 09510W 8426 01540 0059 +168 +166 324042 043 034 008 00
140300 1928N 09510W 8429 01539 0061 +168 +167 324043 043 033 007 03
140330 1926N 09511W 8428 01541 0061 +166 +166 323044 045 031 007 00
140400 1924N 09511W 8429 01540 0062 +167 //// 323046 047 031 007 01
140430 1922N 09511W 8429 01541 0063 +167 +164 322048 048 028 007 00
140500 1921N 09512W 8428 01542 0064 +166 +165 321048 049 026 007 00
140530 1919N 09512W 8428 01547 0069 +161 //// 321051 052 027 006 01
140600 1917N 09512W 8428 01548 0071 +160 //// 320050 052 027 006 01
140630 1915N 09513W 8429 01546 0072 +163 //// 321051 052 025 006 01
140700 1913N 09513W 8428 01549 0073 +165 +165 320049 050 028 006 00
140730 1911N 09513W 8424 01556 0075 +166 +165 315049 051 030 006 00
140800 1909N 09513W 8431 01551 0076 +168 +159 311049 050 031 005 00
140830 1907N 09514W 8429 01552 0075 +171 +156 312046 049 028 006 00
140900 1906N 09514W 8426 01558 0079 +170 +151 310046 047 029 004 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091419
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 36 20170809
140930 1904N 09514W 8429 01554 0080 +167 +150 308049 050 019 007 03
141000 1902N 09513W 8427 01557 0080 +167 +158 304043 048 /// /// 03
141030 1903N 09512W 8424 01558 0079 +168 +155 304041 043 017 007 03
141100 1904N 09511W 8430 01551 0079 +166 +151 305044 045 021 007 00
141130 1906N 09510W 8430 01551 0077 +168 +154 306045 046 025 006 00
141200 1907N 09509W 8426 01553 0075 +167 +161 308047 047 027 006 00
141230 1908N 09508W 8428 01549 0074 +165 //// 308045 047 030 006 01
141300 1909N 09506W 8433 01542 0072 +165 //// 312044 046 029 007 01
141330 1910N 09505W 8423 01551 0070 +162 //// 312045 046 031 004 01
141400 1911N 09504W 8427 01542 0066 +164 //// 315046 047 031 006 01
141430 1913N 09503W 8426 01543 0066 +161 //// 314046 048 029 008 01
141500 1914N 09502W 8429 01540 0065 +161 //// 314046 048 027 008 01
141530 1915N 09500W 8425 01541 0064 +160 //// 312045 046 030 007 01
141600 1916N 09459W 8426 01538 0063 +160 //// 312046 046 032 007 01
141630 1917N 09458W 8428 01535 0061 +161 //// 312045 046 034 010 01
141700 1918N 09457W 8427 01534 0063 +153 //// 313046 047 032 015 01
141730 1920N 09456W 8428 01531 0060 +154 //// 314046 046 036 016 01
141800 1921N 09454W 8428 01530 0056 +157 //// 312045 046 039 014 01
141830 1922N 09453W 8429 01531 0057 +157 //// 314046 046 039 013 01
141900 1923N 09452W 8425 01530 0047 +158 //// 312041 046 035 013 01
$$
;

[GCANE]

Getting the outflow fingers from the cirrus left by the latest rounds of towers firing off.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091429
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 37 20170809
141930 1924N 09451W 8429 01526 0049 +162 //// 312042 042 034 010 01
142000 1925N 09450W 8429 01526 0050 +159 //// 315042 043 034 012 01
142030 1926N 09448W 8422 01532 0048 +165 //// 314042 043 036 012 01
142100 1928N 09447W 8425 01530 0046 +167 //// 323040 043 036 012 01
142130 1929N 09446W 8426 01526 0039 +174 //// 332040 042 033 008 01
142200 1930N 09445W 8422 01531 0041 +171 //// 325041 042 034 008 01
142230 1931N 09444W 8430 01520 0036 +175 +174 329039 041 034 005 00
142300 1932N 09443W 8426 01524 0034 +179 +164 333040 040 031 007 00
142330 1933N 09441W 8426 01523 0033 +178 +165 331040 040 030 005 00
142400 1934N 09440W 8429 01518 0028 +180 +170 329041 042 029 005 00
142430 1935N 09439W 8425 01520 0026 +181 +166 332041 042 029 005 00
142500 1936N 09438W 8426 01517 0023 +182 +168 332043 045 027 006 00
142530 1937N 09437W 8425 01514 0022 +178 +177 329044 045 029 006 00
142600 1939N 09436W 8427 01514 0024 +172 //// 327046 047 030 011 01
142630 1940N 09435W 8423 01513 //// +166 //// 322043 047 030 011 01
142700 1941N 09433W 8443 01501 //// +163 //// 324044 048 037 018 01
142730 1942N 09432W 8433 01506 //// +166 //// 327042 045 028 011 01
142800 1943N 09431W 8422 01513 0016 +176 //// 325043 044 031 008 01
142830 1944N 09430W 8428 01504 0009 +183 //// 328043 044 029 008 01
142900 1945N 09429W 8429 01501 0008 +181 //// 327044 045 026 007 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091439
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 38 20170809
142930 1946N 09428W 8426 01502 0006 +182 //// 330045 046 026 007 01
143000 1947N 09426W 8429 01497 0002 +186 +178 332043 044 024 007 00
143030 1948N 09425W 8428 01496 0000 +175 //// 326044 047 026 010 01
143100 1950N 09424W 8434 01490 0003 +173 //// 327043 046 028 011 01
143130 1951N 09423W 8420 01501 9999 +180 //// 327041 043 033 011 01
143200 1952N 09422W 8426 01492 9998 +177 //// 325043 044 034 011 01
143230 1953N 09421W 8422 01497 //// +168 //// 328043 046 037 021 01
143300 1954N 09420W 8423 01490 9988 +183 //// 337036 038 034 021 01
143330 1955N 09418W 8426 01486 9984 +190 +177 338035 036 024 006 00
143400 1956N 09417W 8432 01479 9985 +185 +183 337037 037 024 007 00
143430 1957N 09416W 8425 01484 9981 +187 +184 336037 038 026 006 00
143500 1958N 09415W 8429 01478 9978 +189 +183 334037 038 026 006 00
143530 1959N 09414W 8427 01478 9974 +193 +172 334037 037 027 005 00
143600 2001N 09413W 8432 01470 9970 +195 +180 334036 037 026 006 00
143630 2002N 09411W 8425 01474 9966 +194 +183 330036 037 025 006 00
143700 2003N 09410W 8428 01468 9963 +193 +176 331033 036 020 007 03
143730 2004N 09409W 8425 01468 9962 +189 +179 331032 033 023 006 00
143800 2004N 09407W 8428 01462 9957 +193 +173 332034 034 021 006 00
143830 2005N 09406W 8425 01461 9949 +203 +167 329033 035 025 004 00
143900 2006N 09404W 8425 01457 9946 +199 +169 332036 036 019 006 00
$$
;

[tropicwatch]

Depending on next center fix, I think Franklin's movement is slowing down.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091449
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 39 20170809
143930 2007N 09403W 8430 01449 9946 +190 +180 326036 036 017 007 00
144000 2008N 09401W 8429 01447 9942 +190 +182 320036 039 019 006 00
144030 2008N 09400W 8426 01446 9937 +194 +173 323042 043 025 005 00
144100 2009N 09358W 8436 01429 9931 +191 +182 327038 042 026 005 00
144130 2010N 09357W 8425 01438 9927 +189 +188 330031 036 024 006 00
144200 2011N 09355W 8429 01428 9920 +190 //// 335027 029 024 007 01
144230 2012N 09353W 8427 01427 9917 +192 +178 333026 027 020 006 00
144300 2012N 09352W 8429 01422 //// +189 //// 337021 023 013 007 01
144330 2013N 09350W 8426 01423 //// +193 //// 336018 021 014 006 05
144400 2014N 09349W 8425 01419 //// +197 //// 329016 017 012 007 01
144430 2014N 09347W 8422 01417 //// +203 //// 317017 018 014 007 05
144500 2015N 09346W 8431 01407 //// +197 //// 305014 018 010 006 05
144530 2017N 09345W 8423 01407 9886 +200 +195 298012 014 014 007 03
144600 2018N 09344W 8436 01390 9881 +200 +198 284005 011 014 007 03
144630 2020N 09343W 8429 01395 9878 +201 +193 130004 006 /// /// 03
144700 2021N 09342W 8425 01395 9874 +201 +195 108011 015 /// /// 03
144730 2022N 09341W 8431 01386 9869 +203 +200 111021 024 014 007 00
144800 2024N 09340W 8425 01397 9872 +207 +191 119032 035 018 007 00
144830 2025N 09339W 8429 01396 9878 +203 +197 125040 043 026 006 00
144900 2026N 09338W 8430 01400 9880 +206 +202 128051 058 043 008 00
$$
;

Pressure steady at 987mb.

[Kazmit]

Depending on next center fix, I think Franklin's movement is slowing down.

That would mean more time over water, and more time to strengthen.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

...FRANKLIN ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 93.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

Franklin continues to become better organized, with increasing
inner-core convection and banding features. The initial intensity
is set at 60 kt based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface
winds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
Observations from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure is
falling, which presages intensification. Radar observations from
the NOAA aircraft indicate that a well-defined eyewall has not yet
developed, however. The tropical cyclone will continue to traverse
SSTs of near 30 deg C until landfall, with northerly shear possibly
impeding strengthening. However, the only evidence of this shear at
this time is a slight restriction of the upper-level outflow over
the northern portion of the circulation. Given the otherwise
favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, additional
strengthening is forecast up to landfall. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance.

Center fixes from the aircraft give a generally westward motion, or
270/11 kt. A large mid-level high pressure system to the north of
Franklin should maintain the generally westward track until
landfall in eastern Mexico. A slightly more southward motion could
occur while the center crosses the coast, due to interaction with
the topography of Mexico. The official track forecast is close to
the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 20.2N 93.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 20.1N 95.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 19.7N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Craters]

I can't even imagine the amount of rain they're going to get as this thing hits those mountains in Mexico.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091459
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 40 20170809
144930 2027N 09336W 8427 01413 9899 +192 //// 133060 061 048 011 01
145000 2028N 09335W 8425 01421 9907 +193 //// 131059 061 054 011 01
145030 2029N 09334W 8417 01438 //// +180 //// 130058 060 055 012 01
145100 2030N 09333W 8429 01438 //// +172 //// 129067 072 056 013 01
145130 2031N 09332W 8420 01452 //// +168 //// 128074 078 058 016 01
145200 2032N 09331W 8429 01449 9954 +174 //// 126075 076 059 014 05
145230 2033N 09330W 8425 01462 9955 +186 //// 127073 074 058 010 01
145300 2034N 09328W 8432 01456 9963 +182 //// 129078 079 060 009 01
145330 2035N 09327W 8429 01470 9968 +189 +185 129077 078 058 008 00
145400 2036N 09326W 8425 01477 9973 +188 +183 133073 076 052 010 00
145430 2037N 09325W 8427 01481 9981 +184 +182 133071 073 051 011 00
145500 2038N 09324W 8428 01483 9979 +194 +177 134072 072 052 011 00
145530 2040N 09323W 8425 01489 9985 +192 +172 137070 072 049 012 00
145600 2041N 09321W 8429 01489 9991 +190 +172 138067 068 046 013 00
145630 2042N 09320W 8433 01489 9997 +188 +165 137069 070 046 012 00
145700 2043N 09319W 8427 01498 0004 +181 +162 138070 071 046 010 00
145730 2044N 09318W 8429 01497 0008 +179 +164 138071 074 043 009 00
145800 2045N 09317W 8424 01507 0014 +175 +162 139073 074 044 008 00
145830 2046N 09315W 8434 01502 0022 +174 +162 139071 072 039 007 00
145900 2047N 09314W 8429 01512 0027 +171 +165 141071 072 041 007 00
$$
;

79 kt FL, 60 kt SFMR. Just below hurricane strength.

[wxman57]

Not a hurricane yet, according to recon. I think it'll reach hurricane strength in the next few hours, though. Will probably be upgraded with the 18Z intermediate advisory. It's moving right along, not slowing down. Should be inland in about 14 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

And there we go.. more than enough hurricane force winds. 75 to 80 mph

[HurricaneRyan]

So excited for our first hurricane of the season to happen

[stormreader]

Depending on next center fix, I think Franklin's movement is slowing down.

That would mean more time over water, and more time to strengthen.

I mentioned that possibility a couple of pages back. Knew that a south of west movement was mentioned in advisory as possible. Often leads to a slowing.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 091509
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 41 20170809
145930 2048N 09313W 8425 01518 0030 +170 +161 141068 071 038 007 01
150000 2050N 09312W 8428 01519 //// +170 //// 140067 067 037 007 01
150030 2051N 09311W 8428 01522 //// +169 //// 139069 069 041 005 01
150100 2052N 09309W 8426 01525 //// +167 //// 139070 070 039 006 01
150130 2053N 09308W 8427 01525 //// +165 //// 139069 070 039 006 01
150200 2054N 09307W 8428 01526 //// +165 //// 139069 070 041 007 01
150230 2055N 09306W 8425 01531 0047 +169 +154 140069 070 039 008 00
150300 2056N 09305W 8431 01524 //// +163 //// 140064 069 036 007 01
150330 2057N 09303W 8430 01530 //// +168 //// 139066 067 035 007 01
150400 2059N 09302W 8424 01539 //// +170 //// 140066 067 037 006 01
150430 2100N 09301W 8429 01539 //// +171 //// 138065 066 035 006 01
150500 2101N 09300W 8427 01542 //// +175 //// 136063 065 036 006 01
150530 2102N 09258W 8428 01544 0061 +175 +154 134062 062 034 006 00
150600 2103N 09257W 8425 01548 //// +171 //// 135060 062 034 006 01
150630 2104N 09256W 8428 01546 //// +176 //// 138062 063 033 007 01
150700 2105N 09255W 8431 01548 //// +178 //// 137064 066 033 006 01
150730 2106N 09254W 8425 01556 //// +177 //// 139062 063 033 006 01
150800 2107N 09252W 8427 01552 //// +180 //// 138059 060 035 005 01
150830 2109N 09251W 8426 01556 0071 +180 +145 138059 059 031 007 00
150900 2110N 09250W 8429 01552 0071 +174 +144 139058 058 030 007 01

000
URNT15 KNHC 091519
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 42 20170809
150930 2111N 09249W 8434 01547 //// +166 //// 141052 057 031 007 01
151000 2112N 09247W 8431 01556 //// +168 //// 141057 058 029 007 01
151030 2113N 09246W 8418 01570 //// +178 //// 135057 058 027 007 01
151100 2114N 09245W 8432 01557 //// +178 //// 136056 057 029 006 01
151130 2115N 09244W 8429 01562 0085 +175 +156 139056 056 030 006 01
151200 2116N 09242W 8429 01565 0089 +174 +148 140055 056 030 006 00
151230 2118N 09241W 8422 01574 0092 +171 +151 137054 055 030 006 00
151300 2119N 09240W 8432 01568 0098 +165 +154 138054 054 029 006 00
151330 2120N 09239W 8424 01578 0102 +165 +156 139054 055 028 006 00
151400 2121N 09238W 8421 01580 0102 +167 +156 140053 055 027 006 00
151430 2122N 09236W 8432 01568 0097 +172 +149 136054 056 026 007 00
151500 2123N 09235W 8432 01569 0100 +167 +152 136052 053 026 006 00
151530 2124N 09234W 8426 01575 0097 +167 +156 135052 052 028 006 00
151600 2125N 09233W 8422 01567 0083 +174 +150 136052 052 027 006 00
151630 2127N 09231W 8429 01558 0081 +173 +152 138053 054 024 007 00
151700 2128N 09230W 8430 01555 0082 +169 +161 140051 052 020 007 00
151730 2129N 09229W 8436 01556 0085 +168 +160 141051 052 026 007 00
151800 2130N 09228W 8422 01568 0085 +156 //// 140049 052 050 027 05
151830 2131N 09226W 8423 01564 0092 +154 //// 135044 050 050 029 01
151900 2132N 09225W 8433 01557 0090 +164 //// 139048 050 025 008 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 091516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072017
A. 09/14:46:20Z
B. 20 deg 19 min N
093 deg 43 min W
C. 850 mb 1317 m
D. 39 kt
E. 230 deg 87 nm
F. 324 deg 48 kt
G. 232 deg 61 nm
H. EXTRAP 987 mb
I. 16 C / 1529 m
J. 20 C / 1528 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. OPEN W
M. E36/40/20
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 0507A FRANKLIN OB 12
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 79 KT 045 / 19 NM 14:53:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 239 / 24 NM FROM FL CNTR
;