ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#941 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:22 am

BoC Buoy

Image

Image
1 likes   
Top
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9155
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#942 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:22 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 091019
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 12 20170809
100930 2436N 09118W 3927 07762 0450 -164 -293 102015 016 /// /// 03
101000 2433N 09119W 3927 07762 0450 -164 -309 102015 015 028 000 00
101030 2431N 09120W 3929 07759 0449 -167 -265 098015 016 028 000 00
101100 2428N 09120W 3930 07745 0435 -168 -272 095015 016 028 000 00
101130 2426N 09121W 3927 07738 0426 -165 -259 099015 016 028 000 00
101200 2424N 09122W 3927 07735 0422 -165 -291 097015 016 028 000 00
101230 2421N 09122W 3929 07731 0420 -164 -288 089013 014 028 000 00
101300 2419N 09123W 3929 07730 0418 -165 -266 076013 013 029 000 00
101330 2416N 09124W 3929 07727 0417 -165 -259 066012 013 029 000 00
101400 2414N 09124W 3929 07729 0417 -165 -258 066013 013 028 000 00
101430 2411N 09125W 3929 07726 0417 -167 -257 071014 014 028 000 00
101500 2409N 09126W 3929 07727 0416 -168 -241 067013 014 028 000 00
101530 2406N 09126W 3926 07731 0417 -168 -260 071013 014 028 000 00
101600 2404N 09127W 3928 07727 0416 -169 -233 074015 015 030 000 00
101630 2401N 09128W 3929 07726 0416 -170 -238 073016 016 030 000 00
101700 2359N 09128W 3927 07727 0415 -166 -250 071016 017 030 000 00
101730 2356N 09129W 3927 07729 0415 -169 -241 069016 017 030 000 00
101800 2354N 09130W 3930 07724 0415 -168 -246 073017 018 030 000 00
101830 2351N 09130W 3927 07727 0414 -169 -244 068018 019 031 000 00
101900 2349N 09131W 3926 07727 0414 -165 -247 065019 019 030 000 00
$$
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#943 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:43 am

Pros and cons with this.

Expecting to see a large increase in latent heat flux and energy being pumped into the system around 1800Z.

500mb vort looks closed off by then. This, IMHO, was distrupting Franklin's intensification.

Air column is forecast to dry out some below 500mb.

Core will need to stay in a higher altitude to overcome this.

It is also well known shear could put a lid on it as well.



Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
2 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#944 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:44 am

Recon is in the system now..im going with 70 to maybe 80mph
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#945 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:48 am

Towers firing off on the west of the CoC. A good sign of intensification.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#946 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:56 am

Mid-level spin looks good now. Definitely closing off the 500mb vort ellipse.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#947 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:58 am

Nice wall building rapidly.
Might see a pink donut on 37 GHz.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#948 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:00 am

Lots of 50 knot barbs on recon.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#949 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:08 am

Per recon Franklin still lacks a good core, highest flight level winds well north of the LLC, but found lower pressure.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#950 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:11 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#951 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:14 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2124
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#952 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:17 am

:uarrow: A few 64kt barbs there.
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#953 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:18 am

Big blow up on the feeder band to the west.
Looks like COAMPS was right and will be running into a huge latent heat ridge.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#954 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:19 am

Kazmit wrote::uarrow: A few 64kt barbs there.


And just lost their telemetry.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3383
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:
Contact tropicwatch

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#955 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:25 am

Significant pressure drop 989mb 11:18Z
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#956 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:30 am

Looks like they may be shooting for a new center developing around that wall of towers.
I think they are in the biggest tower now.
Could see some higher winds on the southern wall.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#957 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:33 am

core is getting better organized for sure.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#958 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:41 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#959 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:43 am

Pressure down to 987mb per VDM.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#960 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:53 am

.FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
7:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 9
Location: 20.2°N 93.4°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests