txwatcher91 wrote:The “fist” is beginning to form on IR. This always precedes RI from my experience.
Yeah, that's a good indicator that it's going to crank some. It's got maybe 30 hours to see what it can do. It's a bit ragged still though.
ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yeah, that's a good indicator that it's going to crank some. It's got maybe 30 hours to see what it can do. It's a bit ragged still though.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
While I don't think it'll make it to Cat 3 (it would have to more than double in intensity) I think Diana 1990 could be a good analog, and it's sort of looked that way for awhile already regarding the track as well.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 090414
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 49 20170809
040400 2059N 09304W 6965 03170 0065 +100 +021 046035 036 036 000 00
040430 2057N 09304W 6965 03169 0060 +103 +021 048035 037 035 004 00
040500 2055N 09305W 6963 03171 0061 +100 +021 046036 036 036 000 00
040530 2053N 09305W 6967 03167 0059 +105 +021 048035 036 036 000 00
040600 2051N 09305W 6968 03165 0055 +105 +021 045034 035 033 000 00
040630 2049N 09305W 6965 03170 0059 +102 +021 041035 036 033 000 00
040700 2047N 09306W 6966 03168 0062 +099 +022 040036 036 034 001 00
040730 2045N 09306W 6971 03162 0066 +097 +022 038036 036 034 000 00
040800 2043N 09306W 6964 03170 0063 +100 +022 036034 036 035 000 00
040830 2041N 09306W 6966 03165 0058 +100 +022 035034 035 035 000 00
040900 2039N 09307W 6971 03160 0057 +103 +022 035033 034 035 001 00
040930 2037N 09307W 6964 03168 0066 +096 +022 032033 034 034 001 00
041000 2035N 09307W 6973 03159 0063 +100 +021 033034 034 032 001 00
041030 2033N 09308W 6966 03166 0062 +100 +021 029034 034 032 000 00
041100 2031N 09308W 6963 03169 0061 +099 +020 027035 035 031 000 00
041130 2029N 09308W 6971 03160 0063 +100 +020 026035 035 029 000 00
041200 2027N 09308W 6971 03162 0069 +095 +020 023033 034 029 000 00
041230 2025N 09309W 6962 03171 0067 +095 +020 018033 033 027 001 00
041300 2023N 09309W 6970 03163 0067 +095 +019 013034 034 030 001 00
041330 2021N 09309W 6968 03165 0081 +086 +019 015034 035 030 005 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 090414
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 49 20170809
040400 2059N 09304W 6965 03170 0065 +100 +021 046035 036 036 000 00
040430 2057N 09304W 6965 03169 0060 +103 +021 048035 037 035 004 00
040500 2055N 09305W 6963 03171 0061 +100 +021 046036 036 036 000 00
040530 2053N 09305W 6967 03167 0059 +105 +021 048035 036 036 000 00
040600 2051N 09305W 6968 03165 0055 +105 +021 045034 035 033 000 00
040630 2049N 09305W 6965 03170 0059 +102 +021 041035 036 033 000 00
040700 2047N 09306W 6966 03168 0062 +099 +022 040036 036 034 001 00
040730 2045N 09306W 6971 03162 0066 +097 +022 038036 036 034 000 00
040800 2043N 09306W 6964 03170 0063 +100 +022 036034 036 035 000 00
040830 2041N 09306W 6966 03165 0058 +100 +022 035034 035 035 000 00
040900 2039N 09307W 6971 03160 0057 +103 +022 035033 034 035 001 00
040930 2037N 09307W 6964 03168 0066 +096 +022 032033 034 034 001 00
041000 2035N 09307W 6973 03159 0063 +100 +021 033034 034 032 001 00
041030 2033N 09308W 6966 03166 0062 +100 +021 029034 034 032 000 00
041100 2031N 09308W 6963 03169 0061 +099 +020 027035 035 031 000 00
041130 2029N 09308W 6971 03160 0063 +100 +020 026035 035 029 000 00
041200 2027N 09308W 6971 03162 0069 +095 +020 023033 034 029 000 00
041230 2025N 09309W 6962 03171 0067 +095 +020 018033 033 027 001 00
041300 2023N 09309W 6970 03163 0067 +095 +019 013034 034 030 001 00
041330 2021N 09309W 6968 03165 0081 +086 +019 015034 035 030 005 00
$$
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Chris_in_Tampa
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 090424
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 50 20170809
041400 2019N 09310W 6963 03170 0076 +089 +016 010032 033 033 002 00
041430 2017N 09310W 6973 03160 0068 +096 +011 013031 033 032 001 00
041500 2016N 09310W 6964 03169 0067 +095 +009 019029 030 032 000 00
041530 2014N 09310W 6967 03166 0068 +096 +008 008031 033 032 002 00
041600 2012N 09311W 6972 03164 0078 +090 +009 001033 034 031 004 00
041630 2010N 09311W 6961 03171 0094 +074 +008 009040 041 033 006 00
041700 2008N 09311W 6974 03157 0077 +089 +004 008039 040 036 004 00
041730 2006N 09311W 6966 03168 0095 +076 -000 003033 037 034 007 00
041800 2004N 09312W 6964 03169 0090 +079 -006 006033 037 037 010 00
041830 2002N 09312W 6970 03164 0094 +078 -010 355026 031 039 019 00
041900 2000N 09312W 6967 03165 0087 +081 -012 000030 032 041 020 03
041930 1958N 09313W 6999 03132 0093 +080 -014 008033 035 048 021 00
042000 1956N 09313W 6961 03175 0072 +095 -015 008033 034 031 004 00
042030 1954N 09313W 6968 03169 0073 +095 -015 008031 033 028 000 00
042100 1952N 09313W 6967 03169 0071 +099 -014 358029 031 027 000 00
042130 1950N 09313W 6965 03172 0071 +097 -009 353027 028 028 001 00
042200 1948N 09313W 6970 03166 0073 +097 -004 357025 026 031 001 00
042230 1946N 09312W 6967 03171 0072 +097 +001 002026 027 032 001 00
042300 1944N 09312W 6967 03170 0072 +096 +004 353021 025 033 005 00
042330 1943N 09311W 6974 03164 0083 +088 +007 344028 029 044 008 00
$$
;
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 50 20170809
041400 2019N 09310W 6963 03170 0076 +089 +016 010032 033 033 002 00
041430 2017N 09310W 6973 03160 0068 +096 +011 013031 033 032 001 00
041500 2016N 09310W 6964 03169 0067 +095 +009 019029 030 032 000 00
041530 2014N 09310W 6967 03166 0068 +096 +008 008031 033 032 002 00
041600 2012N 09311W 6972 03164 0078 +090 +009 001033 034 031 004 00
041630 2010N 09311W 6961 03171 0094 +074 +008 009040 041 033 006 00
041700 2008N 09311W 6974 03157 0077 +089 +004 008039 040 036 004 00
041730 2006N 09311W 6966 03168 0095 +076 -000 003033 037 034 007 00
041800 2004N 09312W 6964 03169 0090 +079 -006 006033 037 037 010 00
041830 2002N 09312W 6970 03164 0094 +078 -010 355026 031 039 019 00
041900 2000N 09312W 6967 03165 0087 +081 -012 000030 032 041 020 03
041930 1958N 09313W 6999 03132 0093 +080 -014 008033 035 048 021 00
042000 1956N 09313W 6961 03175 0072 +095 -015 008033 034 031 004 00
042030 1954N 09313W 6968 03169 0073 +095 -015 008031 033 028 000 00
042100 1952N 09313W 6967 03169 0071 +099 -014 358029 031 027 000 00
042130 1950N 09313W 6965 03172 0071 +097 -009 353027 028 028 001 00
042200 1948N 09313W 6970 03166 0073 +097 -004 357025 026 031 001 00
042230 1946N 09312W 6967 03171 0072 +097 +001 002026 027 032 001 00
042300 1944N 09312W 6967 03170 0072 +096 +004 353021 025 033 005 00
042330 1943N 09311W 6974 03164 0083 +088 +007 344028 029 044 008 00
$$
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 090434
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 51 20170809
042400 1941N 09310W 6966 03172 0077 +093 +006 347026 028 037 003 03
042430 1939N 09310W 6963 03175 0076 +093 +006 346026 026 032 001 00
042500 1937N 09310W 6973 03163 0077 +091 +006 347026 027 031 002 00
042530 1935N 09310W 6965 03172 0077 +091 +006 349027 027 030 002 00
042600 1933N 09311W 6972 03166 0077 +094 +006 350026 026 030 002 03
042630 1932N 09312W 6961 03178 0078 +091 +006 354025 026 027 003 00
042700 1931N 09313W 6965 03174 0082 +090 +006 000026 027 028 002 00
042730 1930N 09315W 6966 03172 0083 +089 +005 358029 029 028 002 00
042800 1929N 09317W 6968 03167 0080 +090 +005 353032 033 030 001 00
042830 1928N 09319W 6969 03164 0085 +084 +005 348035 036 032 003 00
042900 1927N 09320W 6967 03164 0102 +069 +004 345033 036 036 016 00
042930 1927N 09322W 6963 03170 0105 +067 +000 345035 037 037 015 00
043000 1925N 09323W 6966 03167 0104 +069 -005 346035 037 036 011 00
043030 1923N 09323W 6971 03164 0095 +079 -010 340033 036 033 006 00
043100 1921N 09323W 6967 03167 0091 +081 -015 331032 033 031 005 00
043130 1919N 09323W 6966 03171 0086 +088 -019 333032 033 030 003 00
043200 1917N 09323W 6969 03169 0088 +086 -020 331031 031 030 001 00
043230 1917N 09323W 6969 03169 0088 +087 -017 330030 031 031 002 00
043300 1913N 09322W 6967 03174 0086 +090 -015 332029 030 031 003 00
043330 1912N 09322W 6966 03175 0087 +090 -012 330030 031 031 001 00
$$
URNT15 KNHC 090434
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 51 20170809
042400 1941N 09310W 6966 03172 0077 +093 +006 347026 028 037 003 03
042430 1939N 09310W 6963 03175 0076 +093 +006 346026 026 032 001 00
042500 1937N 09310W 6973 03163 0077 +091 +006 347026 027 031 002 00
042530 1935N 09310W 6965 03172 0077 +091 +006 349027 027 030 002 00
042600 1933N 09311W 6972 03166 0077 +094 +006 350026 026 030 002 03
042630 1932N 09312W 6961 03178 0078 +091 +006 354025 026 027 003 00
042700 1931N 09313W 6965 03174 0082 +090 +006 000026 027 028 002 00
042730 1930N 09315W 6966 03172 0083 +089 +005 358029 029 028 002 00
042800 1929N 09317W 6968 03167 0080 +090 +005 353032 033 030 001 00
042830 1928N 09319W 6969 03164 0085 +084 +005 348035 036 032 003 00
042900 1927N 09320W 6967 03164 0102 +069 +004 345033 036 036 016 00
042930 1927N 09322W 6963 03170 0105 +067 +000 345035 037 037 015 00
043000 1925N 09323W 6966 03167 0104 +069 -005 346035 037 036 011 00
043030 1923N 09323W 6971 03164 0095 +079 -010 340033 036 033 006 00
043100 1921N 09323W 6967 03167 0091 +081 -015 331032 033 031 005 00
043130 1919N 09323W 6966 03171 0086 +088 -019 333032 033 030 003 00
043200 1917N 09323W 6969 03169 0088 +086 -020 331031 031 030 001 00
043230 1917N 09323W 6969 03169 0088 +087 -017 330030 031 031 002 00
043300 1913N 09322W 6967 03174 0086 +090 -015 332029 030 031 003 00
043330 1912N 09322W 6966 03175 0087 +090 -012 330030 031 031 001 00
$$
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 090445
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 52 20170809
043400 1910N 09321W 6970 03171 0088 +089 -010 323032 033 027 001 00
043430 1908N 09321W 6966 03176 0092 +086 -007 322032 033 027 001 00
043500 1906N 09320W 6965 03176 0112 +069 -005 316031 033 026 004 03
043530 1905N 09319W 6972 03169 0101 +078 -004 309027 030 /// /// 03
043600 1906N 09317W 6969 03173 0092 +086 -005 308025 028 032 001 00
043630 1908N 09316W 6967 03173 0086 +089 -005 314027 027 031 001 00
043700 1909N 09315W 6969 03169 0082 +089 -004 309028 029 031 003 00
043730 1910N 09314W 6966 03170 0080 +088 -004 310023 027 032 004 00
043800 1911N 09312W 6965 03170 0085 +085 -003 315026 027 032 002 00
043830 1912N 09311W 6967 03166 0086 +082 -004 315024 028 035 005 03
043900 1914N 09310W 6956 03178 0105 +065 -006 310030 036 038 030 03
043930 1915N 09308W 6990 03137 0099 +071 -007 333026 035 050 043 00
044000 1916N 09307W 6972 03160 0103 +068 -009 326025 029 043 023 00
044030 1917N 09306W 6967 03164 0087 +080 -009 333029 030 033 007 00
044100 1918N 09305W 6967 03163 0076 +087 -010 339028 028 031 002 00
044130 1920N 09304W 6968 03161 0073 +090 -011 341027 028 029 001 00
044200 1921N 09302W 6967 03163 0067 +094 -009 347023 027 029 001 00
044230 1922N 09301W 6967 03163 0060 +099 -005 346021 022 027 001 00
044300 1923N 09300W 6967 03161 0063 +097 +000 344020 020 028 001 00
044330 1924N 09259W 6967 03160 0068 +093 +005 339019 020 030 002 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 090445
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 52 20170809
043400 1910N 09321W 6970 03171 0088 +089 -010 323032 033 027 001 00
043430 1908N 09321W 6966 03176 0092 +086 -007 322032 033 027 001 00
043500 1906N 09320W 6965 03176 0112 +069 -005 316031 033 026 004 03
043530 1905N 09319W 6972 03169 0101 +078 -004 309027 030 /// /// 03
043600 1906N 09317W 6969 03173 0092 +086 -005 308025 028 032 001 00
043630 1908N 09316W 6967 03173 0086 +089 -005 314027 027 031 001 00
043700 1909N 09315W 6969 03169 0082 +089 -004 309028 029 031 003 00
043730 1910N 09314W 6966 03170 0080 +088 -004 310023 027 032 004 00
043800 1911N 09312W 6965 03170 0085 +085 -003 315026 027 032 002 00
043830 1912N 09311W 6967 03166 0086 +082 -004 315024 028 035 005 03
043900 1914N 09310W 6956 03178 0105 +065 -006 310030 036 038 030 03
043930 1915N 09308W 6990 03137 0099 +071 -007 333026 035 050 043 00
044000 1916N 09307W 6972 03160 0103 +068 -009 326025 029 043 023 00
044030 1917N 09306W 6967 03164 0087 +080 -009 333029 030 033 007 00
044100 1918N 09305W 6967 03163 0076 +087 -010 339028 028 031 002 00
044130 1920N 09304W 6968 03161 0073 +090 -011 341027 028 029 001 00
044200 1921N 09302W 6967 03163 0067 +094 -009 347023 027 029 001 00
044230 1922N 09301W 6967 03163 0060 +099 -005 346021 022 027 001 00
044300 1923N 09300W 6967 03161 0063 +097 +000 344020 020 028 001 00
044330 1924N 09259W 6967 03160 0068 +093 +005 339019 020 030 002 00
$$
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 090454
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 53 20170809
044400 1925N 09258W 6967 03163 0074 +089 +008 332019 021 029 004 00
044430 1927N 09256W 6967 03160 0073 +087 +009 331021 023 029 005 00
044500 1928N 09255W 6969 03158 0067 +091 +008 344021 023 029 002 00
044530 1929N 09254W 6966 03159 0062 +094 +006 332021 021 026 001 00
044600 1930N 09253W 6965 03161 0079 +081 +005 336021 023 027 002 00
044630 1931N 09251W 6969 03154 0060 +095 +005 346019 021 027 000 00
044700 1932N 09250W 6967 03158 0060 +095 +005 341019 021 025 000 00
044730 1934N 09249W 6968 03154 0057 +096 +007 341022 022 026 001 00
044800 1935N 09248W 6966 03155 0061 +090 +010 345023 026 028 001 00
044830 1936N 09247W 6967 03153 0058 +091 +012 347024 026 029 003 00
044900 1937N 09245W 6965 03155 0057 +092 +012 344024 024 028 004 00
044930 1938N 09244W 6966 03153 0054 +094 +011 341024 024 026 001 00
045000 1939N 09243W 6967 03149 0051 +095 +012 343023 024 025 001 00
045030 1940N 09242W 6967 03149 0046 +100 +014 344023 024 024 000 00
045100 1942N 09241W 6963 03154 0040 +102 +017 342020 022 026 004 00
045130 1943N 09239W 6967 03149 0044 +100 +020 342020 020 025 002 00
045200 1944N 09238W 6967 03149 0040 +100 +022 340020 021 025 001 00
045230 1945N 09237W 6967 03148 0041 +100 +025 337019 020 023 001 00
045300 1946N 09236W 6967 03148 0042 +099 +027 339019 019 022 000 00
045330 1948N 09234W 6966 03149 0044 +097 +028 341020 021 023 001 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 090454
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 53 20170809
044400 1925N 09258W 6967 03163 0074 +089 +008 332019 021 029 004 00
044430 1927N 09256W 6967 03160 0073 +087 +009 331021 023 029 005 00
044500 1928N 09255W 6969 03158 0067 +091 +008 344021 023 029 002 00
044530 1929N 09254W 6966 03159 0062 +094 +006 332021 021 026 001 00
044600 1930N 09253W 6965 03161 0079 +081 +005 336021 023 027 002 00
044630 1931N 09251W 6969 03154 0060 +095 +005 346019 021 027 000 00
044700 1932N 09250W 6967 03158 0060 +095 +005 341019 021 025 000 00
044730 1934N 09249W 6968 03154 0057 +096 +007 341022 022 026 001 00
044800 1935N 09248W 6966 03155 0061 +090 +010 345023 026 028 001 00
044830 1936N 09247W 6967 03153 0058 +091 +012 347024 026 029 003 00
044900 1937N 09245W 6965 03155 0057 +092 +012 344024 024 028 004 00
044930 1938N 09244W 6966 03153 0054 +094 +011 341024 024 026 001 00
045000 1939N 09243W 6967 03149 0051 +095 +012 343023 024 025 001 00
045030 1940N 09242W 6967 03149 0046 +100 +014 344023 024 024 000 00
045100 1942N 09241W 6963 03154 0040 +102 +017 342020 022 026 004 00
045130 1943N 09239W 6967 03149 0044 +100 +020 342020 020 025 002 00
045200 1944N 09238W 6967 03149 0040 +100 +022 340020 021 025 001 00
045230 1945N 09237W 6967 03148 0041 +100 +025 337019 020 023 001 00
045300 1946N 09236W 6967 03148 0042 +099 +027 339019 019 022 000 00
045330 1948N 09234W 6966 03149 0044 +097 +028 341020 021 023 001 00
$$
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mrbagyo
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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Digital-TC-Chaser
Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Upper level divergence is better now than it has been on cimss plots since the birth,
of the storm. If its right the storm will vent a lot better now and move the mass air
more efficiently.
of the storm. If its right the storm will vent a lot better now and move the mass air
more efficiently.
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
Last one for at least 45 minutes
000
URNT15 KNHC 090504
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 54 20170809
045400 1949N 09233W 6966 03147 0041 +097 +029 341018 021 023 001 00
045430 1950N 09232W 6965 03147 0045 +094 +030 332019 021 021 001 00
045500 1951N 09231W 6969 03143 0040 +098 +030 344021 022 020 001 00
045530 1952N 09230W 6967 03143 0036 +099 +029 343021 021 021 000 00
045600 1953N 09228W 6969 03140 0025 +108 +029 345021 022 023 000 00
045630 1955N 09227W 6967 03141 0028 +103 +030 344019 021 023 000 00
045700 1956N 09226W 6967 03140 0028 +102 +031 341019 020 023 000 00
045730 1957N 09225W 6967 03137 0022 +106 +032 344020 020 023 000 03
045800 1958N 09223W 6963 03141 0017 +110 +033 339020 021 025 001 00
045830 1959N 09222W 6967 03136 0017 +110 +034 336020 021 026 001 00
045900 2000N 09220W 6967 03138 0024 +105 +035 335021 022 029 001 00
045930 2001N 09219W 6966 03138 0021 +107 +035 333022 022 027 001 00
050000 2002N 09217W 6966 03138 0018 +109 +036 332023 024 029 000 00
050030 2003N 09216W 6969 03134 0016 +110 +036 333026 027 030 000 00
050100 2003N 09214W 6965 03137 0011 +110 +037 326024 026 030 000 00
050130 2004N 09213W 6970 03129 0007 +112 +037 318023 023 028 000 00
050200 2005N 09211W 6966 03131 0008 +110 +038 313025 026 027 000 00
050230 2006N 09210W 6966 03130 0008 +110 +038 307025 026 025 000 00
050300 2007N 09208W 6969 03126 0009 +107 +039 313018 023 024 000 00
050330 2008N 09207W 6967 03125 0008 +105 +039 324018 018 023 001 00
$$
000
URNT15 KNHC 090504
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 54 20170809
045400 1949N 09233W 6966 03147 0041 +097 +029 341018 021 023 001 00
045430 1950N 09232W 6965 03147 0045 +094 +030 332019 021 021 001 00
045500 1951N 09231W 6969 03143 0040 +098 +030 344021 022 020 001 00
045530 1952N 09230W 6967 03143 0036 +099 +029 343021 021 021 000 00
045600 1953N 09228W 6969 03140 0025 +108 +029 345021 022 023 000 00
045630 1955N 09227W 6967 03141 0028 +103 +030 344019 021 023 000 00
045700 1956N 09226W 6967 03140 0028 +102 +031 341019 020 023 000 00
045730 1957N 09225W 6967 03137 0022 +106 +032 344020 020 023 000 03
045800 1958N 09223W 6963 03141 0017 +110 +033 339020 021 025 001 00
045830 1959N 09222W 6967 03136 0017 +110 +034 336020 021 026 001 00
045900 2000N 09220W 6967 03138 0024 +105 +035 335021 022 029 001 00
045930 2001N 09219W 6966 03138 0021 +107 +035 333022 022 027 001 00
050000 2002N 09217W 6966 03138 0018 +109 +036 332023 024 029 000 00
050030 2003N 09216W 6969 03134 0016 +110 +036 333026 027 030 000 00
050100 2003N 09214W 6965 03137 0011 +110 +037 326024 026 030 000 00
050130 2004N 09213W 6970 03129 0007 +112 +037 318023 023 028 000 00
050200 2005N 09211W 6966 03131 0008 +110 +038 313025 026 027 000 00
050230 2006N 09210W 6966 03130 0008 +110 +038 307025 026 025 000 00
050300 2007N 09208W 6969 03126 0009 +107 +039 313018 023 024 000 00
050330 2008N 09207W 6967 03125 0008 +105 +039 324018 018 023 001 00
$$
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-
Sciencerocks
- Category 5
- Posts: 9155
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 090534
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 57 20170809
052400 2044N 09143W 6980 03118 0068 +067 +006 129042 043 042 021 00
052430 2045N 09142W 6963 03139 0059 +075 -000 129041 042 049 011 00
052500 2046N 09140W 6974 03126 0063 +074 -006 123044 046 047 016 03
052530 2047N 09139W 6957 03149 0057 +079 -009 132043 046 050 018 00
052600 2049N 09138W 6971 03134 0062 +079 -010 132040 041 052 019 03
052630 2050N 09137W 6961 03147 0045 +092 -012 134040 042 055 009 00
052700 2051N 09136W 6969 03142 0071 +076 -014 134044 047 050 008 03
052730 2051N 09136W 6969 03142 0094 +060 -015 123056 065 049 017 03
052800 2054N 09134W 6971 03139 0097 +057 -018 111057 065 050 017 03
052830 2055N 09133W 6966 03150 0089 +066 -022 109053 056 050 011 03
052900 2056N 09132W 6967 03151 0059 +092 -026 110051 052 048 007 00
052930 2057N 09131W 6971 03147 0061 +091 -028 112051 051 046 006 00
053000 2058N 09130W 6966 03154 0060 +093 -028 114051 051 046 004 00
053030 2100N 09128W 6966 03154 0073 +084 -027 117049 050 046 005 00
053100 2101N 09127W 6965 03158 0089 +072 -026 124050 050 046 008 00
053130 2102N 09126W 6970 03152 0074 +085 -025 123048 050 045 008 03
053200 2103N 09125W 6966 03158 0078 +083 -024 126049 051 045 008 00
053230 2105N 09124W 6968 03158 0075 +087 -023 128050 051 043 009 03
053300 2106N 09123W 6969 03159 0085 +080 -021 131051 052 042 007 00
053330 2107N 09122W 6966 03162 0091 +075 -019 132052 052 043 008 00
$$
URNT15 KNHC 090534
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 57 20170809
052400 2044N 09143W 6980 03118 0068 +067 +006 129042 043 042 021 00
052430 2045N 09142W 6963 03139 0059 +075 -000 129041 042 049 011 00
052500 2046N 09140W 6974 03126 0063 +074 -006 123044 046 047 016 03
052530 2047N 09139W 6957 03149 0057 +079 -009 132043 046 050 018 00
052600 2049N 09138W 6971 03134 0062 +079 -010 132040 041 052 019 03
052630 2050N 09137W 6961 03147 0045 +092 -012 134040 042 055 009 00
052700 2051N 09136W 6969 03142 0071 +076 -014 134044 047 050 008 03
052730 2051N 09136W 6969 03142 0094 +060 -015 123056 065 049 017 03
052800 2054N 09134W 6971 03139 0097 +057 -018 111057 065 050 017 03
052830 2055N 09133W 6966 03150 0089 +066 -022 109053 056 050 011 03
052900 2056N 09132W 6967 03151 0059 +092 -026 110051 052 048 007 00
052930 2057N 09131W 6971 03147 0061 +091 -028 112051 051 046 006 00
053000 2058N 09130W 6966 03154 0060 +093 -028 114051 051 046 004 00
053030 2100N 09128W 6966 03154 0073 +084 -027 117049 050 046 005 00
053100 2101N 09127W 6965 03158 0089 +072 -026 124050 050 046 008 00
053130 2102N 09126W 6970 03152 0074 +085 -025 123048 050 045 008 03
053200 2103N 09125W 6966 03158 0078 +083 -024 126049 051 045 008 00
053230 2105N 09124W 6968 03158 0075 +087 -023 128050 051 043 009 03
053300 2106N 09123W 6969 03159 0085 +080 -021 131051 052 042 007 00
053330 2107N 09122W 6966 03162 0091 +075 -019 132052 052 043 008 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Franklin has now regained all intensity that was lost crossing land, and after less than six hours over water. Certainly won't continue strengthening at that pace (10mph every three hours) but unless something drastic changes I don't see any reason this won't continue to at least slowly strengthen until landfall.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Sciencerocks
- Category 5
- Posts: 9155
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 090604
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 60 20170809
055400 2159N 09033W 5127 05686 0296 -032 //// 111037 038 /// /// 05
055430 2200N 09032W 4965 05940 0316 -047 //// 116036 037 /// /// 05
055500 2201N 09031W 4824 06167 0332 -051 //// 114037 039 033 000 05
055530 2203N 09030W 4673 06418 0351 -064 //// 107036 039 /// /// 05
055600 2204N 09029W 4537 06652 0368 -073 //// 105040 041 /// /// 05
055630 2206N 09028W 4420 06858 0384 -090 //// 104040 041 030 000 01
055700 2208N 09027W 4311 07050 0398 -107 //// 106041 042 031 000 01
055730 2209N 09027W 4222 07210 0410 -117 //// 109035 039 030 000 01
055800 2211N 09026W 4127 07383 0421 -124 //// 104029 032 030 000 01
055830 2213N 09025W 4027 07570 0433 -135 //// 097031 032 030 000 01
055900 2215N 09025W 3939 07740 0446 -148 //// 097029 031 028 000 01
055930 2217N 09024W 3918 07779 0449 -155 //// 096028 029 028 000 01
060000 2219N 09023W 3922 07770 0447 -155 //// 097030 031 028 000 01
060030 2221N 09022W 3922 07769 0446 -155 //// 095031 032 030 000 01
060100 2223N 09021W 3923 07765 0446 -155 //// 097029 030 030 000 01
060130 2226N 09020W 3925 07764 0446 -155 -158 100029 029 030 000 01
060200 2228N 09019W 3927 07762 0448 -154 -167 100028 029 029 000 00
060230 2230N 09018W 3921 07773 0448 -154 -177 100027 027 029 000 00
060300 2233N 09017W 3929 07757 0448 -151 -185 097027 028 029 000 00
060330 2235N 09017W 3926 07765 0450 -150 -191 097028 028 029 000 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 090604
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 60 20170809
055400 2159N 09033W 5127 05686 0296 -032 //// 111037 038 /// /// 05
055430 2200N 09032W 4965 05940 0316 -047 //// 116036 037 /// /// 05
055500 2201N 09031W 4824 06167 0332 -051 //// 114037 039 033 000 05
055530 2203N 09030W 4673 06418 0351 -064 //// 107036 039 /// /// 05
055600 2204N 09029W 4537 06652 0368 -073 //// 105040 041 /// /// 05
055630 2206N 09028W 4420 06858 0384 -090 //// 104040 041 030 000 01
055700 2208N 09027W 4311 07050 0398 -107 //// 106041 042 031 000 01
055730 2209N 09027W 4222 07210 0410 -117 //// 109035 039 030 000 01
055800 2211N 09026W 4127 07383 0421 -124 //// 104029 032 030 000 01
055830 2213N 09025W 4027 07570 0433 -135 //// 097031 032 030 000 01
055900 2215N 09025W 3939 07740 0446 -148 //// 097029 031 028 000 01
055930 2217N 09024W 3918 07779 0449 -155 //// 096028 029 028 000 01
060000 2219N 09023W 3922 07770 0447 -155 //// 097030 031 028 000 01
060030 2221N 09022W 3922 07769 0446 -155 //// 095031 032 030 000 01
060100 2223N 09021W 3923 07765 0446 -155 //// 097029 030 030 000 01
060130 2226N 09020W 3925 07764 0446 -155 -158 100029 029 030 000 01
060200 2228N 09019W 3927 07762 0448 -154 -167 100028 029 029 000 00
060230 2230N 09018W 3921 07773 0448 -154 -177 100027 027 029 000 00
060300 2233N 09017W 3929 07757 0448 -151 -185 097027 028 029 000 00
060330 2235N 09017W 3926 07765 0450 -150 -191 097028 028 029 000 00
$$
;
0 likes
-
Sciencerocks
- Category 5
- Posts: 9155
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 090614
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 61 20170809
060400 2237N 09016W 3922 07773 0450 -154 -194 095028 029 028 000 00
060430 2239N 09015W 3929 07758 0450 -154 -197 090025 028 028 000 00
060500 2242N 09014W 3922 07774 0451 -152 -200 089023 024 028 000 00
060530 2244N 09013W 3933 07753 0451 -150 -203 090023 024 029 000 00
060600 2247N 09012W 3923 07772 0453 -151 -205 092024 025 033 000 00
060630 2249N 09011W 3926 07768 0453 -152 -207 094023 025 032 000 00
060700 2251N 09010W 3931 07760 0453 -151 -208 092023 023 031 000 00
060730 2254N 09009W 3922 07778 0454 -154 -208 092026 028 030 000 00
060800 2256N 09008W 3929 07763 0453 -150 -208 102027 029 029 000 00
060830 2259N 09007W 3926 07769 0454 -149 -209 103026 027 030 000 00
060900 2301N 09006W 3923 07774 0455 -148 -211 097026 027 028 001 00
060930 2304N 09005W 3930 07762 0455 -149 -214 094026 027 027 000 00
061000 2306N 09004W 3925 07774 0455 -148 -220 092025 026 027 000 00
061030 2309N 09003W 3926 07771 0455 -152 -227 087025 026 027 000 00
061100 2311N 09002W 3927 07767 0455 -153 -233 082022 025 027 000 00
061130 2313N 09001W 3923 07776 0456 -152 -236 082020 020 026 000 00
061200 2316N 09000W 3929 07767 0456 -153 -240 081020 020 026 000 00
061230 2318N 08959W 3923 07776 0456 -159 -243 081020 020 026 000 00
061300 2321N 08958W 3926 07770 0456 -160 -246 083020 020 026 000 00
061330 2323N 08957W 3926 07771 0457 -160 -248 081020 020 026 000 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 090614
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 61 20170809
060400 2237N 09016W 3922 07773 0450 -154 -194 095028 029 028 000 00
060430 2239N 09015W 3929 07758 0450 -154 -197 090025 028 028 000 00
060500 2242N 09014W 3922 07774 0451 -152 -200 089023 024 028 000 00
060530 2244N 09013W 3933 07753 0451 -150 -203 090023 024 029 000 00
060600 2247N 09012W 3923 07772 0453 -151 -205 092024 025 033 000 00
060630 2249N 09011W 3926 07768 0453 -152 -207 094023 025 032 000 00
060700 2251N 09010W 3931 07760 0453 -151 -208 092023 023 031 000 00
060730 2254N 09009W 3922 07778 0454 -154 -208 092026 028 030 000 00
060800 2256N 09008W 3929 07763 0453 -150 -208 102027 029 029 000 00
060830 2259N 09007W 3926 07769 0454 -149 -209 103026 027 030 000 00
060900 2301N 09006W 3923 07774 0455 -148 -211 097026 027 028 001 00
060930 2304N 09005W 3930 07762 0455 -149 -214 094026 027 027 000 00
061000 2306N 09004W 3925 07774 0455 -148 -220 092025 026 027 000 00
061030 2309N 09003W 3926 07771 0455 -152 -227 087025 026 027 000 00
061100 2311N 09002W 3927 07767 0455 -153 -233 082022 025 027 000 00
061130 2313N 09001W 3923 07776 0456 -152 -236 082020 020 026 000 00
061200 2316N 09000W 3929 07767 0456 -153 -240 081020 020 026 000 00
061230 2318N 08959W 3923 07776 0456 -159 -243 081020 020 026 000 00
061300 2321N 08958W 3926 07770 0456 -160 -246 083020 020 026 000 00
061330 2323N 08957W 3926 07771 0457 -160 -248 081020 020 026 000 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017
...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The
Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the
coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas,
located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph
(81 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017
...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The
Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the
coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas,
located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph
(81 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
0500 UTC showed 700-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt about 40 n mi
northeast of the center, and surface wind estimates from the SFMR
of 50-55 kt in the same area. Satellite imagery has shown increased
organization, with a well-defined convective band that yields
satellite intensity estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.
The initial motion is now 280/11, a little faster than before.
A mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northwest of Franklin
should keep the cyclone moving generally westward for the next
24 hours or so, followed by a south of west motion as Franklin's
circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The
new forecast track, which is nudged a little north of the previous
track, has the center making landfall in the Mexican state of
Veracruz just past the 24 hour point, followed by a motion into the
mountains of eastern Mexico. The new track is in good agreement
with the various consensus models.
Franklin is crossing the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche
and continued strengthening appears likely. Indeed, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40-50 percent chance of 25 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 hours. However, the large-scale
models forecast moderate northeasterly shear to develop during that
time, which may slow intensification below rapid levels. The new
intensity forecast calls for Franklin to become a hurricane in 12 h
and reach a peak intensity of 70 kt near the time of landfall. This
forecast again lies close to the upper edge of the intensity
guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast as Franklin
moves into the mountains of eastern Mexico, and the low-level center
is likely to dissipate completely by 48 h. It should be noted that
some large-scale models re-form the low-level center over the
Pacific as the remnants of Franklin reach that basin in about 72 h.
The initial 34-kt wind radii were revised based on a combination of
aircraft, surface, and scatterometer data. However, Franklin is
expected to increase in size, and this requires a northward
extension of the Tropical Storm Warning on the eastern coast of
Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 20.4N 92.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
0500 UTC showed 700-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt about 40 n mi
northeast of the center, and surface wind estimates from the SFMR
of 50-55 kt in the same area. Satellite imagery has shown increased
organization, with a well-defined convective band that yields
satellite intensity estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.
The initial motion is now 280/11, a little faster than before.
A mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northwest of Franklin
should keep the cyclone moving generally westward for the next
24 hours or so, followed by a south of west motion as Franklin's
circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The
new forecast track, which is nudged a little north of the previous
track, has the center making landfall in the Mexican state of
Veracruz just past the 24 hour point, followed by a motion into the
mountains of eastern Mexico. The new track is in good agreement
with the various consensus models.
Franklin is crossing the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche
and continued strengthening appears likely. Indeed, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40-50 percent chance of 25 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 hours. However, the large-scale
models forecast moderate northeasterly shear to develop during that
time, which may slow intensification below rapid levels. The new
intensity forecast calls for Franklin to become a hurricane in 12 h
and reach a peak intensity of 70 kt near the time of landfall. This
forecast again lies close to the upper edge of the intensity
guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast as Franklin
moves into the mountains of eastern Mexico, and the low-level center
is likely to dissipate completely by 48 h. It should be noted that
some large-scale models re-form the low-level center over the
Pacific as the remnants of Franklin reach that basin in about 72 h.
The initial 34-kt wind radii were revised based on a combination of
aircraft, surface, and scatterometer data. However, Franklin is
expected to increase in size, and this requires a northward
extension of the Tropical Storm Warning on the eastern coast of
Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 20.4N 92.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
looks like its making a run for hurricane.. convection building all around center in a developing eyewall. recon should be interesting.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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