ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 090320
NOAA2 0207A FRANKLIN HDOB 32 20170809
031100 2424N 08825W 4449 06850 0424 -085 -353 112022 023 021 001 00
031130 2425N 08822W 4451 06849 0425 -086 -354 113022 022 020 001 00
031200 2426N 08820W 4452 06847 0425 -086 -353 116021 022 019 001 00
031230 2427N 08817W 4448 06851 0425 -088 -354 121021 021 020 001 00
031300 2428N 08814W 4450 06850 0425 -087 -353 116020 020 019 001 00
031330 2430N 08812W 4449 06850 0424 -086 -350 113020 021 019 001 00
031400 2431N 08809W 4450 06848 0424 -087 -349 110019 020 016 002 00
031430 2433N 08807W 4450 06849 0425 -089 -349 115019 020 018 001 00
031500 2435N 08805W 4449 06850 0425 -090 -348 115020 020 019 000 00
031530 2436N 08802W 4452 06848 0425 -090 -348 118019 020 018 000 00
031600 2438N 08800W 4449 06850 0424 -089 -351 112019 020 019 000 00
031630 2440N 08758W 4448 06850 0424 -089 -366 105019 020 018 001 00
031700 2441N 08755W 4450 06849 0425 -089 -385 106018 019 018 001 00
031730 2443N 08753W 4450 06850 0425 -089 -384 108019 020 020 001 00
031800 2445N 08751W 4449 06851 0424 -088 -373 109020 020 020 001 00
031830 2446N 08748W 4448 06850 0423 -089 -371 109020 020 021 001 00
031900 2448N 08746W 4447 06852 0423 -090 -378 107020 020 021 001 00
031930 2450N 08744W 4450 06848 0423 -088 -347 101019 020 022 001 00
032000 2451N 08741W 4449 06851 0425 -089 -335 102017 018 023 001 00
032030 2453N 08739W 4451 06848 0427 -091 -360 112015 015 022 001 00

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090314
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 43 20170809
030400 1943N 09201W 6963 03147 0057 +082 +028 325016 019 032 006 00
030430 1945N 09159W 6968 03138 0036 +097 +025 323015 015 030 004 00
030500 1946N 09158W 6966 03142 0036 +098 +023 320015 015 024 001 00
030530 1947N 09157W 6966 03141 0035 +100 +022 322015 016 023 000 00
030600 1947N 09157W 6966 03141 0035 +100 +023 320016 017 023 000 00
030630 1950N 09154W 6970 03140 0032 +100 +024 317017 017 023 000 00
030700 1951N 09153W 6966 03142 0029 +104 +025 315018 018 022 000 00
030730 1952N 09152W 6966 03141 0029 +103 +027 316018 018 022 000 00
030800 1953N 09150W 6970 03135 0028 +101 +028 315017 018 025 003 00
030830 1954N 09149W 6963 03142 0021 +105 +029 313014 016 025 002 00
030900 1956N 09148W 6965 03137 0016 +108 +030 308015 016 022 000 00
030930 1957N 09147W 6968 03134 0015 +109 +032 312016 016 020 000 00
031000 1958N 09145W 6965 03135 0009 +111 +033 310016 016 024 001 00
031030 1959N 09144W 6971 03126 0007 +110 +034 311017 018 022 000 00
031100 2001N 09143W 6965 03132 0010 +108 +035 309017 017 025 000 03
031130 2002N 09141W 6967 03129 0012 +105 +036 312015 017 025 000 00
031200 2003N 09140W 6969 03125 0006 +109 +037 311012 014 023 000 00
031230 2004N 09139W 6962 03134 0009 +106 +037 305012 013 024 002 00
031300 2006N 09137W 6966 03126 0012 +101 +037 313010 013 025 002 00
031330 2007N 09136W 6966 03124 0015 +096 +034 297010 011 026 003 00
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090324
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 44 20170809
031400 2008N 09135W 6966 03123 0010 +101 +031 288012 012 028 001 03
031430 2009N 09134W 6964 03121 9997 +109 +029 294012 013 029 001 00
031500 2011N 09133W 6967 03115 9983 +119 +029 273012 013 029 001 03
031530 2013N 09132W 6967 03112 9976 +122 +030 264015 015 028 001 00
031600 2014N 09131W 6966 03112 9973 +120 +032 259016 016 027 001 00
031630 2016N 09130W 6966 03107 9966 +122 +035 247016 017 024 001 00
031700 2018N 09130W 6969 03100 9966 +119 +038 247013 016 023 000 00
031730 2020N 09130W 6967 03098 9963 +117 +040 197004 011 020 000 00
031800 2021N 09131W 6967 03096 9962 +115 +041 107008 009 017 000 00
031830 2023N 09131W 6966 03098 9968 +114 +042 101011 013 021 001 00
031900 2024N 09132W 6970 03095 9965 +115 +043 085017 018 021 001 03
031930 2024N 09134W 6951 03117 9959 +120 +044 070015 018 /// /// 03
032000 2022N 09134W 6959 03112 9969 +116 +045 059010 013 020 001 00
032030 2021N 09134W 6967 03100 9967 +115 +046 050004 008 016 000 03
032100 2019N 09133W 6967 03102 9969 +114 +046 236003 006 017 000 00
032130 2018N 09131W 6960 03109 9970 +113 +046 249013 016 013 001 03
032200 2019N 09130W 6973 03095 9968 +116 +046 226014 017 /// /// 03
032230 2020N 09130W 6961 03107 9964 +116 +048 183007 014 018 000 03
032300 2021N 09131W 6967 03097 9964 +117 +048 120007 008 018 000 00
032330 2023N 09133W 6967 03100 9962 +118 +047 096010 011 018 000 00
$$

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 090330
NOAA2 0207A FRANKLIN HDOB 33 20170809
032100 2454N 08737W 4449 06851 0425 -091 -373 109015 016 021 001 00
032130 2456N 08734W 4448 06851 0423 -090 -368 112016 017 020 001 00
032200 2458N 08732W 4453 06846 0426 -090 -354 120015 016 019 001 00
032230 2459N 08730W 4447 06852 0424 -092 -355 113015 016 022 000 00
032300 2501N 08727W 4451 06847 0424 -095 -387 110015 016 020 001 00
032330 2503N 08725W 4449 06851 0423 -094 -371 107015 015 020 001 00
032400 2504N 08722W 4449 06851 0425 -092 -360 105015 015 020 001 00
032430 2506N 08720W 4448 06852 0426 -095 -374 111013 014 022 001 00
032500 2508N 08718W 4447 06853 0425 -094 -369 104014 014 020 001 00
032530 2509N 08715W 4450 06851 0426 -093 -346 106013 013 021 002 00
032600 2511N 08713W 4449 06852 0426 -095 -360 112012 012 023 001 00
032630 2513N 08711W 4450 06851 0426 -094 -378 111012 012 025 000 00
032700 2514N 08708W 4448 06854 0426 -093 -354 110012 012 022 001 00
032730 2516N 08706W 4450 06853 0428 -093 -304 112010 011 023 001 00
032800 2518N 08703W 4449 06854 0428 -093 -304 116010 010 024 001 00
032830 2519N 08701W 4449 06854 0428 -094 -331 117009 010 024 000 00
032900 2521N 08658W 4448 06856 0429 -094 -338 121009 009 025 000 00
032930 2523N 08656W 4450 06855 0430 -094 -320 124008 008 024 000 00
033000 2524N 08654W 4449 06857 0430 -094 -312 128008 008 025 000 00
033030 2526N 08651W 4450 06857 0432 -094 -323 138008 008 023 001 00

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090334
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 45 20170809
032400 2024N 09134W 6966 03101 9966 +115 +047 080015 016 021 000 30
032430 2025N 09135W 6970 03097 9964 +119 +046 076017 018 026 000 00
032500 2026N 09137W 6969 03100 9960 +120 +045 068019 019 028 000 00
032530 2028N 09138W 6967 03102 9964 +119 +045 064022 023 030 001 00
032600 2029N 09139W 6966 03104 9972 +114 +045 067026 028 031 000 00
032630 2030N 09141W 6967 03104 9977 +111 +044 069029 029 033 000 00
032700 2031N 09142W 6966 03109 9986 +107 +043 070032 033 036 002 00
032730 2033N 09144W 6967 03109 0000 +096 +041 072034 035 037 002 00
032800 2034N 09145W 6967 03111 9995 +100 +037 075039 040 036 002 00
032830 2035N 09146W 6966 03114 0011 +093 +032 075043 043 040 003 00
032900 2036N 09148W 6967 03115 0023 +085 +028 072046 048 046 005 00
032930 2038N 09149W 6961 03126 0033 +081 +022 067048 052 047 012 03
033000 2039N 09151W 6973 03115 0027 +089 +015 066052 054 047 013 00
033030 2040N 09152W 6968 03126 0009 +108 +009 063050 051 046 006 00
033100 2041N 09154W 6967 03131 0007 +113 +007 061051 052 043 003 00
033130 2043N 09155W 6965 03135 0018 +107 +009 062049 051 043 001 00
033200 2044N 09156W 6966 03136 0020 +106 +012 064046 049 041 001 00
033230 2045N 09158W 6969 03135 0024 +106 +015 061044 045 041 001 00
033300 2046N 09159W 6966 03141 0027 +105 +017 061042 044 041 000 00
033330 2048N 09200W 6967 03141 0032 +100 +019 061041 042 040 000 00
$$
;

[Steve]

There is not near 90 degree water ahead, excellent outflow channels, a strong convective burst ongoing, and about 30 hours till landfall. I see no reason this can’t reach a cat 2 if the northerly shear and dry air doesn’t impact it.

could go even higher than cat 2. Cat 3 would not surprise me at all

You know I usually agree with you. But it would more than surprise me. NHC takes it to 80 knots in gusts at the peak - max sustained 65k. So that's like 74mph sustained. To get to 96 knots (110ish mph) from where we're at in that short of time just seems unrealistic. An additional 24-48 hours, maybe? But I'm not even thinking Cat 2 sustained which I think is around 82 or 83 knots. I said 2% shot before, but maybe .2? And if we got to 3, sort of historic IMHO.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS coming in much stronger than the 18z. Takes Franklin down to 972mb.

[PTrackerLA]

This looks like a TC poised to strengthen if I've ever seen one

[WeatherEmperor]

There is not near 90 degree water ahead, excellent outflow channels, a strong convective burst ongoing, and about 30 hours till landfall. I see no reason this can’t reach a cat 2 if the northerly shear and dry air doesn’t impact it.

could go even higher than cat 2. Cat 3 would not surprise me at all

The 0z GFS agrees with you fwiw


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 090340
NOAA2 0207A FRANKLIN HDOB 34 20170809
033100 2528N 08649W 4448 06860 0433 -094 -318 140007 008 024 001 00
033130 2530N 08646W 4450 06859 0434 -094 -319 136007 007 026 000 00
033200 2531N 08644W 4449 06860 0434 -095 -286 133006 007 025 000 00
033230 2533N 08641W 4447 06862 0434 -094 -287 137007 007 024 001 00
033300 2535N 08639W 4447 06863 0434 -093 -333 139007 007 026 000 00
033330 2536N 08637W 4450 06858 0435 -093 -295 140007 007 023 001 00
033400 2538N 08634W 4448 06860 0433 -093 -282 141006 006 025 001 00
033430 2540N 08632W 4448 06856 0431 -094 -267 138006 006 025 000 00
033500 2541N 08629W 4449 06855 0429 -094 -311 144006 007 025 000 00
033530 2543N 08627W 4447 06857 0428 -096 -311 141006 007 024 001 00
033600 2545N 08624W 4447 06857 0429 -096 -311 142005 006 023 001 00
033630 2546N 08622W 4449 06856 0431 -095 -309 144005 005 025 001 00
033700 2548N 08619W 4445 06862 0431 -096 -262 144005 005 025 001 00
033730 2550N 08617W 4450 06859 0433 -096 -240 145006 007 025 000 00
033800 2552N 08614W 4448 06858 0430 -096 -254 148007 007 025 000 00
033830 2553N 08612W 4448 06857 0430 -095 -249 148006 007 025 001 00
033900 2555N 08609W 4448 06857 0430 -096 -256 152006 007 025 000 00
033930 2557N 08607W 4446 06858 0428 -096 -242 143006 006 025 000 00
034000 2558N 08604W 4449 06856 0429 -096 -241 148006 006 024 000 00
034030 2600N 08602W 4448 06857 0429 -096 -249 151006 006 023 001 00

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There is not near 90 degree water ahead, excellent outflow channels, a strong convective burst ongoing, and about 30 hours till landfall. I see no reason this can’t reach a cat 2 if the northerly shear and dry air doesn’t impact it.

could go even higher than cat 2. Cat 3 would not surprise me at all

You know I usually agree with you. But it would more than surprise me. NHC takes it to 80 knots in gusts at the peak - max sustained 65k. So that's like 74mph sustained. To get to 96 knots (110ish mph) from where we're at in that short of time just seems unrealistic. An additional 24-48 hours, maybe? But I'm not even thinking Cat 2 sustained which I think is around 82 or 83 knots. I said 2% shot before, but maybe .2? And if we got to 3, sort of historic IMHO.

It's not that unrealistic. Karl went from 50mph to 120mph in 24 hours. An extreme example, but it's not unheard of.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090345
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 46 20170809
033400 2049N 09202W 6967 03143 0039 +099 +021 062040 041 040 001 00
033430 2050N 09203W 6969 03145 0039 +100 +022 061040 041 040 000 00
033500 2051N 09205W 6967 03147 0042 +100 +022 062039 040 036 001 00
033530 2053N 09206W 6967 03147 0043 +098 +023 063039 039 037 000 00
033600 2054N 09207W 6967 03148 0049 +095 +023 061037 039 037 001 00
033630 2055N 09209W 6967 03150 0050 +095 +023 058035 036 037 001 00
033700 2056N 09210W 6969 03148 0048 +096 +023 058034 035 040 001 00
033730 2058N 09212W 6969 03148 0050 +095 +022 061035 035 039 002 00
033800 2059N 09213W 6966 03153 0056 +090 +022 065035 036 040 002 00
033830 2100N 09214W 6967 03153 0058 +091 +021 066036 036 039 002 00
033900 2101N 09216W 6969 03151 0055 +095 +021 062038 038 036 001 00
033930 2102N 09217W 6965 03156 0056 +092 +020 062039 039 036 001 00
034000 2104N 09218W 6966 03154 0052 +097 +020 064040 040 035 000 00
034030 2105N 09220W 6967 03154 0049 +100 +019 066039 040 035 000 00
034100 2106N 09221W 6967 03156 0050 +100 +020 065038 039 035 000 00
034130 2107N 09223W 6967 03157 0047 +101 +020 065039 040 034 000 00
034200 2109N 09224W 6967 03158 0052 +100 +021 065039 040 036 000 00
034230 2110N 09226W 6967 03159 0055 +100 +022 066039 039 036 000 00
034300 2111N 09227W 6966 03162 0055 +100 +022 069040 040 036 000 00
034330 2112N 09228W 6968 03159 0050 +104 +023 071041 042 037 000 00
$$
;

[txwatcher91]

There is not near 90 degree water ahead, excellent outflow channels, a strong convective burst ongoing, and about 30 hours till landfall. I see no reason this can’t reach a cat 2 if the northerly shear and dry air doesn’t impact it.

could go even higher than cat 2. Cat 3 would not surprise me at all

You know I usually agree with you. But it would more than surprise me. NHC takes it to 80 knots in gusts at the peak - max sustained 65k. So that's like 74mph sustained. To get to 96 knots (110ish mph) from where we're at in that short of time just seems unrealistic. An additional 24-48 hours, maybe? But I'm not even thinking Cat 2 sustained which I think is around 82 or 83 knots. I said 2% shot before, but maybe .2? And if we got to 3, sort of historic IMHO.

If the pressure quickly drops it could easily happen. It’s already at 996, a drop of 1mb per hour till landfall would put this in the 965 range for pressure, easily supportive of a cat 2. Don’t underestimate 90 degree water, it can do some amazing things.

[Alyono]

There is not near 90 degree water ahead, excellent outflow channels, a strong convective burst ongoing, and about 30 hours till landfall. I see no reason this can’t reach a cat 2 if the northerly shear and dry air doesn’t impact it.

could go even higher than cat 2. Cat 3 would not surprise me at all

You know I usually agree with you. But it would more than surprise me. NHC takes it to 80 knots in gusts at the peak - max sustained 65k. So that's like 74mph sustained. To get to 96 knots (110ish mph) from where we're at in that short of time just seems unrealistic. An additional 24-48 hours, maybe? But I'm not even thinking Cat 2 sustained which I think is around 82 or 83 knots. I said 2% shot before, but maybe .2? And if we got to 3, sort of historic IMHO.

wouldn't be historic. Would simply be another Karl

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT12 KNHC 090351 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072017
A. 09/03:20:30Z
B. 20 deg 21 min N
091 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 3062 m
D. 34 kt
E. 220 deg 80 nm
F. 311 deg 29 kt
G. 220 deg 80 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 10 C / 3048 m
J. 12 C / 3047 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0307A FRANKLIN OB 19 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 54 KT 317 / 24 NM 03:30:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 270 / 3 KT

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090354
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 47 20170809
034400 2114N 09230W 6966 03163 0051 +105 +023 070041 042 035 001 00
034430 2115N 09231W 6969 03159 0051 +105 +024 072042 042 034 000 00
034500 2116N 09233W 6967 03162 0056 +101 +024 071042 042 035 001 00
034530 2118N 09234W 6969 03161 0057 +100 +025 072042 043 036 001 00
034600 2119N 09236W 6965 03164 0059 +097 +024 072043 044 036 000 00
034630 2120N 09237W 6967 03163 0062 +098 +024 072043 044 036 000 00
034700 2121N 09239W 6967 03164 0060 +100 +024 071043 043 034 000 00
034730 2123N 09240W 6967 03164 0065 +095 +024 072043 044 035 001 00
034800 2124N 09241W 6967 03165 0069 +095 +023 071043 044 034 001 00
034830 2125N 09243W 6966 03167 0069 +095 +022 071044 045 035 000 00
034900 2127N 09244W 6967 03165 0072 +092 +022 070045 046 036 000 00
034930 2128N 09246W 6967 03168 0072 +093 +021 072043 044 035 000 00
035000 2129N 09247W 6967 03169 0077 +091 +020 073041 043 036 001 00
035030 2130N 09249W 6965 03173 0074 +091 +020 076041 042 035 001 00
035100 2132N 09250W 6967 03169 0074 +094 +019 076041 041 036 000 00
035130 2133N 09252W 6970 03169 0076 +095 +018 076041 041 035 000 00
035200 2134N 09253W 6967 03173 0075 +095 +018 075040 041 033 001 00
035230 2136N 09254W 6967 03174 0079 +095 +018 075040 040 032 000 00
035300 2137N 09256W 6967 03174 0081 +092 +018 071040 040 033 000 03
035330 2138N 09258W 6958 03182 0087 +086 +019 065039 040 026 001 03
$$
;

[latitude_20]

Just got internet back after a very long night last night. Took a quick run to Aventuras Akumal to watch Franklin. Surf was definitely up! Slept in the front yard, enjoying the very welcome cooler temps and winds were whipping the coconut palms like crazy. Got about an hour of sleep and drove down to central Akumal for breakfast, then had lunch at Lolha right on the beach, and the wind and waves were still rolling in hard.

[Steve]

Karl did intensify quickly. But we'll see if it ends up being an analog as to intensification. I always thought (and posted) it (Franklin) would be strengthening at landfall and said I think on Thursday or Friday I could see mid/upper TS to Cat1, 2% at Cat2. But it would still be a pretty rare event to pull off a Cat 3 with the time frame. Again, I think it makes a run at a decent system, but if I had money on it, I'd bet it's not getting to 3 (or even probably 2).

[txwatcher91]

The “fist” is beginning to form on IR. This always precedes RI from my experience.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090404
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 48 20170809
035400 2136N 09259W 6968 03173 0089 +085 +020 062038 039 030 001 00
035430 2134N 09259W 6968 03172 0088 +086 +020 063037 038 034 000 00
035500 2133N 09259W 6967 03174 0085 +089 +019 063036 037 034 000 00
035530 2131N 09259W 6968 03172 0077 +095 +018 065036 037 034 000 00
035600 2129N 09300W 6969 03172 0078 +093 +017 064036 037 034 000 00
035630 2127N 09300W 6965 03176 0077 +093 +017 065037 037 034 000 00
035700 2125N 09300W 6967 03171 0074 +095 +016 062037 038 035 000 00
035730 2123N 09301W 6963 03176 0074 +094 +017 062039 039 035 000 00
035800 2121N 09301W 6970 03165 0065 +100 +017 060037 038 035 001 00
035830 2120N 09301W 6965 03173 0064 +102 +017 058037 037 035 000 00
035900 2118N 09301W 6966 03170 0061 +105 +018 057037 038 035 000 00
035930 2116N 09302W 6970 03165 0057 +105 +019 058038 039 035 001 00
040000 2114N 09302W 6967 03167 0055 +106 +020 058038 039 034 001 00
040030 2112N 09302W 6961 03175 0059 +102 +022 058040 040 036 001 00
040100 2110N 09302W 6969 03165 0063 +100 +022 057041 041 035 000 00
040130 2108N 09303W 6972 03162 0065 +099 +023 055040 041 035 000 00
040200 2106N 09303W 6962 03173 0068 +095 +023 055039 041 034 000 00
040230 2104N 09303W 6971 03162 0064 +099 +022 053036 038 034 001 00
040300 2102N 09303W 6966 03168 0064 +100 +022 052036 037 034 000 00
040330 2100N 09304W 6970 03163 0063 +100 +021 050036 037 035 001 00
$$
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