ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

I am going to enjoy watching this NW shift that the Euro has been showing materialize starting 12z tomorrow morning. I think if it doesn't turn NW it will certainly have track implications.

[NDG]

The GFS has been doing a horrible job in forecasting the upper levels, I remember that it was forecasting a sheared environment over 90L in the western Caribbean, thus it was initially not showing 90L to develop.
Now with 99L it shows an ULL to track right along on top of it all the way into the Bahamas while the Euro has been persistently showing an UL ridge to build on top of 99L and moves the ULL away from it.
My money is on the model that has been performing the best these last few days

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I am going to enjoy watching this NW shift that the Euro has been showing materialize starting 12z tomorrow morning. I think if it doesn't turn NW it will certainly have track implications.

EC does weaken the cane on the run quite quickly as it starts a re-curve NNE.

Its likely you already know.

[AtlanticWind]

Looking for convection to blow up as system passes 55 west and waters temps rise.

[Bocadude85]

I really don't think Florida is under the gun with this one, trough is strong and High isn';t quite strong enough to steer it into Florida, that could change, but as of now Florida looks to be pretty safe from this one

As of right now the whole US East coast is in the clear except for maybe the OBX.

[AtlanticWind]

I really don't think Florida is under the gun with this one, trough is strong and High isn';t quite strong enough to steer it into Florida, that could change, but as of now Florida looks to be pretty safe from this one

As of right now the whole US East coast is in the clear except for maybe the OBX.

Too early for any all clears,maybe in a couple days

[txwatcher91]

I really don't think Florida is under the gun with this one, trough is strong and High isn';t quite strong enough to steer it into Florida, that could change, but as of now Florida looks to be pretty safe from this one

As of right now the whole US East coast is in the clear except for maybe the OBX.

This is 5 to 7 days out. A lot will change and small shifts upstream can have big track changes. Plus, the system hasn’t even formed yet.

[weathaguyry]

I really don't think Florida is under the gun with this one, trough is strong and High isn';t quite strong enough to steer it into Florida, that could change, but as of now Florida looks to be pretty safe from this one

As of right now the whole US East coast is in the clear except for maybe the OBX.

This is 5 to 7 days out. A lot will change and small shifts upstream can have big track changes. Plus, the system hasn’t even formed yet.

I have no idea what may happen to any other areas, for all I know this could end up being a Cat 3 into the Outer Banks with a secondary landfall in NYC, or this could be a weak inverted trof that moves a little west of Bermuda. I was trying to imply that based on the current forecast for the steering pattern, Florida would likely not be affected by this, but that could very well change.

[txwatcher91]

As of right now the whole US East coast is in the clear except for maybe the OBX.

This is 5 to 7 days out. A lot will change and small shifts upstream can have big track changes. Plus, the system hasn’t even formed yet.

I have no idea what may happen to any other areas, for all I know this could end up being a Cat 3 into the Outer Banks with a secondary landfall in NYC, or this could be a weak inverted trof that moves a little west of Bermuda. I was trying to imply that based on the current forecast for the steering pattern, Florida would likely not be affected by this, but that could very well change.

The key imo is where does the actual center consolidate and also how long the ridging holds. If I had to guess, I would expect models to trend a bit stronger as we get inside 5 days with it.

[floridasun78]

As of right now the whole US East coast is in the clear except for maybe the OBX.

This is 5 to 7 days out. A lot will change and small shifts upstream can have big track changes. Plus, the system hasn’t even formed yet.

I have no idea what may happen to any other areas, for all I know this could end up being a Cat 3 into the Outer Banks with a secondary landfall in NYC, or this could be a weak inverted trof that moves a little west of Bermuda. I was trying to imply that based on the current forecast for the steering pattern, Florida would likely not be affected by this, but that could very well change.

those strong word to say we cannot scare people in outer bank or nyc we not sure what 7 day from now will bring i bet mets here will agree about putting red flag those area yet

[txwatcher91]

So far the GFS has a stronger HP through 72. Not really showing any development still but ridging is a good bit stronger it seems.

[AtlanticWind]

GFS still has nada this evening thru 72 hours ,which model is right?

[floridasun78]

GFS still has nada this evening thru 72 hours ,which model is right?

none untill we good area to track we dont have now

[AdamFirst]

GFS tracks a weak vortmax into the vicinity of the NW Bahamas (just east), loses it completely after Day 6.

[Siker]

00z UKMET has dropped this.

[Steve]

00z UKMET has dropped this.

Canadian has been the consistent recurve from last week. It's a little farther east, and the track has an eastward component by SC (latitude). So it's showing no hit. It develops from the northern side of the system fwiw.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=84

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though it's starting to organize, wouldn't be surprised if this tries to be a depression the next 2 to 3 days

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Looks as though it's starting to organize, wouldn't be surprised if this tries to be a depression the next 2 to 3 days

Yeah looks less spread out than it did earlier. Wxman57 did mention more favorable conditions toward 55 and 60

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GEFS-WRF Ensemble surface winds. Best keep a open mind for now nothing is in stone.
http://www.steve-weather.com/genswrf/smc-wind1.shtml

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro coming in weaker compared to the past two runs. 72hrs: