ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion
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TheAustinMan
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Radar echoes from Franklin look structurally sound at the range that the NOAA reconnaissance is at right now... looks like a configuration that is set to take advantage of favorable conditions, should they present themselves.
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Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 090004
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 24 20170808
235400 2041N 09124W 8426 01517 0037 +170 +087 055030 032 030 002 00
235430 2039N 09123W 8433 01509 0038 +169 +086 056028 029 031 001 00
235500 2038N 09122W 8425 01515 0036 +167 +085 058028 029 031 001 00
235530 2037N 09121W 8432 01507 0034 +167 +085 056027 027 029 002 00
235600 2036N 09119W 8430 01511 0034 +168 +083 055028 029 030 002 00
235630 2035N 09118W 8426 01512 0030 +173 +082 049026 027 029 001 00
235700 2034N 09117W 8432 01506 0030 +172 +081 051026 026 028 001 00
235730 2033N 09116W 8433 01503 0026 +175 +081 051025 026 028 001 00
235800 2032N 09114W 8429 01505 0024 +175 +082 050025 025 028 001 00
235830 2031N 09113W 8430 01503 0023 +175 +083 049025 025 030 001 00
235900 2030N 09112W 8428 01506 0020 +179 +084 051025 026 029 001 00
235930 2029N 09111W 8432 01498 0017 +179 +085 058026 027 029 000 00
000000 2028N 09109W 8428 01500 0014 +179 +086 056025 026 030 000 00
000030 2026N 09108W 8430 01496 0015 +176 +087 051025 026 031 000 00
000100 2025N 09107W 8428 01498 0015 +174 +088 052028 030 031 000 00
000130 2024N 09106W 8429 01495 0013 +172 +088 051028 030 029 002 00
000200 2023N 09105W 8430 01492 0013 +171 +088 050026 028 030 002 00
000230 2021N 09104W 8429 01492 0011 +172 +088 050027 028 031 000 00
000300 2020N 09102W 8430 01489 0007 +175 +087 051029 029 032 000 00
000330 2019N 09101W 8430 01489 0004 +178 +087 052028 029 030 001 00
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 090004
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 24 20170808
235400 2041N 09124W 8426 01517 0037 +170 +087 055030 032 030 002 00
235430 2039N 09123W 8433 01509 0038 +169 +086 056028 029 031 001 00
235500 2038N 09122W 8425 01515 0036 +167 +085 058028 029 031 001 00
235530 2037N 09121W 8432 01507 0034 +167 +085 056027 027 029 002 00
235600 2036N 09119W 8430 01511 0034 +168 +083 055028 029 030 002 00
235630 2035N 09118W 8426 01512 0030 +173 +082 049026 027 029 001 00
235700 2034N 09117W 8432 01506 0030 +172 +081 051026 026 028 001 00
235730 2033N 09116W 8433 01503 0026 +175 +081 051025 026 028 001 00
235800 2032N 09114W 8429 01505 0024 +175 +082 050025 025 028 001 00
235830 2031N 09113W 8430 01503 0023 +175 +083 049025 025 030 001 00
235900 2030N 09112W 8428 01506 0020 +179 +084 051025 026 029 001 00
235930 2029N 09111W 8432 01498 0017 +179 +085 058026 027 029 000 00
000000 2028N 09109W 8428 01500 0014 +179 +086 056025 026 030 000 00
000030 2026N 09108W 8430 01496 0015 +176 +087 051025 026 031 000 00
000100 2025N 09107W 8428 01498 0015 +174 +088 052028 030 031 000 00
000130 2024N 09106W 8429 01495 0013 +172 +088 051028 030 029 002 00
000200 2023N 09105W 8430 01492 0013 +171 +088 050026 028 030 002 00
000230 2021N 09104W 8429 01492 0011 +172 +088 050027 028 031 000 00
000300 2020N 09102W 8430 01489 0007 +175 +087 051029 029 032 000 00
000330 2019N 09101W 8430 01489 0004 +178 +087 052028 029 030 001 00
$$
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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hammy wrote:GCANE wrote:Campeche is reporting 1000.67mb.
Looks like Franklin didn't take much of a hit.
That's only what, 3-4mb higher than landfall?
I'm honestly surprised how well Franklin held together--yesterday I was expecting to see a large gaping dry area in the center which is common with Yucatan systems, but the drier air seems well north of the inner core.
What was incredibly was watching it make landfall with barely any convection near the center, and then seeing it explode with a nice convective mass covering all sides of the circulation. I think landfall helped tighten up the core from frictional affects.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like CoC is back over the water and convection refiring close in.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 081945.jpg
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 081945.jpg
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 090014
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 25 20170809
000400 2018N 09100W 8430 01486 0003 +176 +087 048027 028 030 001 00
000430 2016N 09059W 8431 01484 0001 +177 +087 046028 028 031 000 00
000500 2015N 09058W 8429 01484 9996 +180 +087 047024 027 029 001 00
000530 2014N 09057W 8432 01479 9995 +179 +088 057019 023 029 001 00
000600 2013N 09056W 8433 01474 9991 +182 +087 059013 016 026 002 00
000630 2011N 09055W 8426 01483 9990 +183 +088 059010 012 020 000 03
000700 2010N 09054W 8428 01480 9990 +181 +088 047012 013 018 000 03
000730 2009N 09053W 8430 01476 9989 +180 +089 055009 011 017 003 00
000800 2007N 09052W 8429 01475 9986 +184 +090 064007 008 018 002 00
000830 2006N 09051W 8429 01475 9986 +181 +091 077004 006 016 000 00
000900 2005N 09050W 8436 01467 9984 +181 +092 168001 003 017 000 00
000930 2003N 09049W 8436 01466 9984 +180 +093 256006 008 015 001 03
001000 2003N 09050W 8425 01479 9987 +177 +095 283006 008 /// /// 03
001030 2004N 09051W 8420 01484 9987 +179 +096 352001 004 018 000 00
001100 2005N 09052W 8430 01476 9989 +177 +096 064005 005 018 001 00
001130 2007N 09053W 8431 01474 9986 +183 +096 052006 007 018 000 00
001200 2008N 09053W 8432 01474 9988 +180 +095 067010 010 015 001 00
001230 2010N 09054W 8433 01473 9987 +183 +095 069011 011 016 001 00
001300 2012N 09054W 8429 01479 9989 +181 +095 071013 014 016 001 00
001330 2013N 09055W 8428 01480 9988 +185 +095 079017 018 019 001 00
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 090014
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 25 20170809
000400 2018N 09100W 8430 01486 0003 +176 +087 048027 028 030 001 00
000430 2016N 09059W 8431 01484 0001 +177 +087 046028 028 031 000 00
000500 2015N 09058W 8429 01484 9996 +180 +087 047024 027 029 001 00
000530 2014N 09057W 8432 01479 9995 +179 +088 057019 023 029 001 00
000600 2013N 09056W 8433 01474 9991 +182 +087 059013 016 026 002 00
000630 2011N 09055W 8426 01483 9990 +183 +088 059010 012 020 000 03
000700 2010N 09054W 8428 01480 9990 +181 +088 047012 013 018 000 03
000730 2009N 09053W 8430 01476 9989 +180 +089 055009 011 017 003 00
000800 2007N 09052W 8429 01475 9986 +184 +090 064007 008 018 002 00
000830 2006N 09051W 8429 01475 9986 +181 +091 077004 006 016 000 00
000900 2005N 09050W 8436 01467 9984 +181 +092 168001 003 017 000 00
000930 2003N 09049W 8436 01466 9984 +180 +093 256006 008 015 001 03
001000 2003N 09050W 8425 01479 9987 +177 +095 283006 008 /// /// 03
001030 2004N 09051W 8420 01484 9987 +179 +096 352001 004 018 000 00
001100 2005N 09052W 8430 01476 9989 +177 +096 064005 005 018 001 00
001130 2007N 09053W 8431 01474 9986 +183 +096 052006 007 018 000 00
001200 2008N 09053W 8432 01474 9988 +180 +095 067010 010 015 001 00
001230 2010N 09054W 8433 01473 9987 +183 +095 069011 011 016 001 00
001300 2012N 09054W 8429 01479 9989 +181 +095 071013 014 016 001 00
001330 2013N 09055W 8428 01480 9988 +185 +095 079017 018 019 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Latest radar from Recon.
Wonder if we get another happy face
Wonder if we get another happy face
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stormreader
Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
TheAustinMan wrote:Radar echoes from Franklin look structurally sound at the range that the NOAA reconnaissance is at right now... looks like a configuration that is set to take advantage of favorable conditions, should they present themselves.
Nice shot.
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 090024
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 26 20170809
001400 2015N 09056W 8430 01478 9991 +182 +094 084018 019 023 002 00
001430 2016N 09056W 8429 01479 9997 +171 +094 076021 022 029 001 00
001500 2018N 09057W 8434 01475 9996 +177 +092 072023 023 030 001 00
001530 2019N 09057W 8428 01485 9997 +178 +089 072026 026 030 001 00
001600 2021N 09058W 8432 01484 0001 +175 +088 070027 029 032 002 00
001630 2023N 09058W 8426 01490 0004 +175 +087 071028 029 032 001 00
001700 2024N 09059W 8433 01484 0005 +173 +087 066031 031 031 002 00
001730 2026N 09059W 8428 01491 0008 +170 +086 068033 034 032 000 00
001800 2027N 09100W 8433 01489 0012 +170 +085 068036 037 033 001 00
001830 2029N 09101W 8431 01492 0014 +171 +084 068036 038 032 001 00
001900 2030N 09101W 8429 01497 0017 +167 +083 074035 036 032 001 00
001930 2032N 09102W 8430 01496 0017 +170 +082 076035 036 032 000 00
002000 2033N 09102W 8428 01500 0020 +170 +081 079035 036 031 001 00
002030 2035N 09103W 8431 01498 0023 +170 +080 080035 036 032 001 00
002100 2037N 09103W 8430 01502 0024 +170 +079 081036 036 032 000 00
002130 2038N 09104W 8429 01503 0025 +170 +079 082037 038 033 001 00
002200 2040N 09105W 8430 01505 0028 +170 +079 082036 037 032 001 00
002230 2041N 09105W 8429 01506 0029 +170 +080 083038 038 032 001 00
002300 2043N 09106W 8430 01507 0031 +167 +080 082036 038 032 001 00
002330 2044N 09106W 8429 01509 0031 +171 +080 081036 036 034 000 00
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 090024
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 26 20170809
001400 2015N 09056W 8430 01478 9991 +182 +094 084018 019 023 002 00
001430 2016N 09056W 8429 01479 9997 +171 +094 076021 022 029 001 00
001500 2018N 09057W 8434 01475 9996 +177 +092 072023 023 030 001 00
001530 2019N 09057W 8428 01485 9997 +178 +089 072026 026 030 001 00
001600 2021N 09058W 8432 01484 0001 +175 +088 070027 029 032 002 00
001630 2023N 09058W 8426 01490 0004 +175 +087 071028 029 032 001 00
001700 2024N 09059W 8433 01484 0005 +173 +087 066031 031 031 002 00
001730 2026N 09059W 8428 01491 0008 +170 +086 068033 034 032 000 00
001800 2027N 09100W 8433 01489 0012 +170 +085 068036 037 033 001 00
001830 2029N 09101W 8431 01492 0014 +171 +084 068036 038 032 001 00
001900 2030N 09101W 8429 01497 0017 +167 +083 074035 036 032 001 00
001930 2032N 09102W 8430 01496 0017 +170 +082 076035 036 032 000 00
002000 2033N 09102W 8428 01500 0020 +170 +081 079035 036 031 001 00
002030 2035N 09103W 8431 01498 0023 +170 +080 080035 036 032 001 00
002100 2037N 09103W 8430 01502 0024 +170 +079 081036 036 032 000 00
002130 2038N 09104W 8429 01503 0025 +170 +079 082037 038 033 001 00
002200 2040N 09105W 8430 01505 0028 +170 +079 082036 037 032 001 00
002230 2041N 09105W 8429 01506 0029 +170 +080 083038 038 032 001 00
002300 2043N 09106W 8430 01507 0031 +167 +080 082036 038 032 001 00
002330 2044N 09106W 8429 01509 0031 +171 +080 081036 036 034 000 00
$$
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weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Pressure coming in at 999.3 from plane and they are just about at center, maybe pressure down to 998 now
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
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stormreader
Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:That BOC bowl is honey hole for development... Crazy, small area with land on 3 sides and systems just love it there...
Been a long time (I believe) since a BOC system strengthened and moved basically north to the northern gulf coast. It won't happen here. But we're probably due.
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 090034
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 27 20170809
002400 2046N 09107W 8424 01515 0033 +172 +081 084037 037 034 001 00
002430 2048N 09108W 8431 01511 0037 +168 +081 082036 037 033 001 00
002500 2049N 09108W 8429 01514 0038 +168 +081 081036 036 033 001 00
002530 2051N 09109W 8429 01516 0042 +165 +081 082035 035 033 001 00
002600 2052N 09109W 8429 01517 0044 +165 +081 084035 036 033 001 00
002630 2054N 09110W 8429 01518 0045 +165 +080 085035 035 033 001 00
002700 2056N 09110W 8429 01518 0046 +165 +080 086034 035 034 002 00
002730 2057N 09111W 8430 01519 0049 +165 +079 086035 035 033 002 00
002800 2059N 09112W 8430 01522 0050 +165 +079 087035 036 032 002 00
002830 2100N 09112W 8432 01520 0051 +165 +079 087035 036 032 001 00
002900 2102N 09113W 8430 01523 0052 +165 +078 086036 037 032 001 00
002930 2104N 09113W 8429 01524 0052 +165 +078 088037 037 033 002 00
003000 2105N 09114W 8430 01523 0054 +164 +078 089035 036 033 000 00
003030 2107N 09115W 8431 01523 0054 +163 +077 092036 036 032 002 00
003100 2109N 09115W 8433 01524 0054 +168 +077 091037 038 034 001 00
003130 2110N 09116W 8428 01529 0057 +165 +077 090037 038 034 001 00
003200 2112N 09117W 8430 01528 0058 +163 +077 089038 038 034 001 00
003230 2113N 09117W 8429 01530 0057 +168 +077 090041 042 034 001 00
003300 2115N 09118W 8430 01530 0058 +170 +078 090044 044 034 001 00
003330 2117N 09118W 8425 01535 0060 +165 +078 091042 043 033 001 00
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 090034
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 27 20170809
002400 2046N 09107W 8424 01515 0033 +172 +081 084037 037 034 001 00
002430 2048N 09108W 8431 01511 0037 +168 +081 082036 037 033 001 00
002500 2049N 09108W 8429 01514 0038 +168 +081 081036 036 033 001 00
002530 2051N 09109W 8429 01516 0042 +165 +081 082035 035 033 001 00
002600 2052N 09109W 8429 01517 0044 +165 +081 084035 036 033 001 00
002630 2054N 09110W 8429 01518 0045 +165 +080 085035 035 033 001 00
002700 2056N 09110W 8429 01518 0046 +165 +080 086034 035 034 002 00
002730 2057N 09111W 8430 01519 0049 +165 +079 086035 035 033 002 00
002800 2059N 09112W 8430 01522 0050 +165 +079 087035 036 032 002 00
002830 2100N 09112W 8432 01520 0051 +165 +079 087035 036 032 001 00
002900 2102N 09113W 8430 01523 0052 +165 +078 086036 037 032 001 00
002930 2104N 09113W 8429 01524 0052 +165 +078 088037 037 033 002 00
003000 2105N 09114W 8430 01523 0054 +164 +078 089035 036 033 000 00
003030 2107N 09115W 8431 01523 0054 +163 +077 092036 036 032 002 00
003100 2109N 09115W 8433 01524 0054 +168 +077 091037 038 034 001 00
003130 2110N 09116W 8428 01529 0057 +165 +077 090037 038 034 001 00
003200 2112N 09117W 8430 01528 0058 +163 +077 089038 038 034 001 00
003230 2113N 09117W 8429 01530 0057 +168 +077 090041 042 034 001 00
003300 2115N 09118W 8430 01530 0058 +170 +078 090044 044 034 001 00
003330 2117N 09118W 8425 01535 0060 +165 +078 091042 043 033 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Woah, the NOAA Recon plane found sub-995 mb pressures. Winds don't seem to be as strong as this would imply (yet), though....
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... b&latest=1
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... b&latest=1
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I'm a busy grad student, not a professional forecaster. Please refer to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts.
Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Stongest convection right at the CoC (20N 91W)
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weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Wow, 994 is pretty darn low!
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
With the structure improvements and partial eyewall reported by recon, I'd expect NHC to forecast a hurricane and Mexico to issue a hurricane warning soon.
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon
000
URNT12 KNHC 090030
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072017
A. 09/00:09:20Z
B. 20 deg 04 min N
090 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1402 m
D. 37 kt
E. 314 deg 103 nm
F. 049 deg 39 kt
G. 314 deg 86 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 17 C / 1525 m
J. 19 C / 1522 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. E05/22/16
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0307A FRANKLIN OB 11
MAX FL WIND 39 KT 314 / 86 NM 23:42:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 335 / 5 KT
URNT12 KNHC 090030
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072017
A. 09/00:09:20Z
B. 20 deg 04 min N
090 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1402 m
D. 37 kt
E. 314 deg 103 nm
F. 049 deg 39 kt
G. 314 deg 86 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 17 C / 1525 m
J. 19 C / 1522 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. E05/22/16
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0307A FRANKLIN OB 11
MAX FL WIND 39 KT 314 / 86 NM 23:42:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 335 / 5 KT
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Just an hour or so over water and the pressure's already back to where it was (if not lower) prior to the 18-hour trek over land.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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