ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[lrak]

Will the surface low close to the western edge of Houston have any effect on Franklin's track? It looks to be slowly drifting south. And could this low do the same thing like Emily?

The swell forecast is looking dangeroushttp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-gwes-latest-hs-gmex-, may have to wait until the surf drops a bit...getting too old darnit.

Unlikely. Take a look at the latest water vapor loops ... the mid-level ridge is holding strong in the Gulf. Also that mesoscale-induced low in east central TX is supposed to retrograde west per NWS discussions.

Thanks Porta, the WV loop shows a stretch of moisture moving a little to the NW while the eastern side is flattened is why I asked.

Also that low near Houston looks like it may move offshore. Please read my disclaimer, I only use satellites and radars for my forecasts

[Alyono]

in worse shape than I thought

GOES16 shows this has decoupled

[lrak]

in worse shape than I thought

GOES16 shows this has decoupled

I was just about to ask that Alyono, it looks like the land interaction chopped Franklin's head off.

[Siker]

12z HWRF and HMON have both trended a bit stronger at landfall, down around 975mb.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the trend of struggling TC's globally has carried over into the Atlantic, no surprise.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like the trend of struggling TC's globally has carried over into the Atlantic, no surprise.

Struggling? This is over land. Of course it is going to struggle.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the trend of struggling TC's globally has carried over into the Atlantic, no surprise.

Struggling? This is over land. Of course it is going to struggle.

It was struggling even before landfall.

[wxman57]

I'm looking at observations all around Franklin and not seeing anything over 15 kts. Diminishing convection around the center, which appears to be near 20N/90W.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm looking at observations all around Franklin and not seeing anything over 15 kts. I don't see any "decoupling". Just diminishing convection around the center.

http://wxman57.com/images/Franklin.JPG

I'm guessing chances that this becomes the seasons first hurricane are slim now?

[Alyono]

I'm looking at observations all around Franklin and not seeing anything over 15 kts. Diminishing convection around the center, which appears to be near 20N/90W.

http://wxman57.com/images/Franklin.JPG

that;s the MLC. The surface center is closer to 20.5N

[tolakram]

I don't know that it's decoupled or just lost convection. Clouds drifting lazily over the center is what I see.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5319&y=6798&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[wxman57]

I'm looking at observations all around Franklin and not seeing anything over 15 kts. I don't see any "decoupling". Just diminishing convection around the center.

http://wxman57.com/images/Franklin.JPG

I'm guessing chances that this becomes the seasons first hurricane are slim now?

It'll be over water for about 30 hours, which is plenty of time to become a hurricane if it can get its core going soon.

[MGC]

Franklin has been over land for some time now so expect the TC to look ragged. Should emerge in the BOC soon. Still has an outside shot at hurricane......MGC

[cycloneye]

...FRANKLIN BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 89.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[wxman57]

40 mph may be a bit generous, but I didn't expect the NHC would downgrade it as it nears the coast.

[weathaguyry]

Maybe when it emerges in the BOC, it can take better advantage of the convection to it's east, and also daytime thunderstorms over Mexico may provide more convection for Franklin to pull into it's core

[Aric Dunn]

definitely looks like the mid level center and surface center have seperated and the surface/low level center is farther north..

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah long loop. you can see mid level circ heading west while the low level circ still wnw.. low level should emerge to slightly north of guidance.

[Hammy]

Yeah long loop. you can see mid level circ heading west while the low level circ still wnw.. low level should emerge to slightly north of guidance.

Could see less intensification?

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah long loop. you can see mid level circ heading west while the low level circ still wnw.. low level should emerge to slightly north of guidance.

Could see less intensification?

hard to say.. if the low level center rebuild convection ( most likely ) then it will have to stack up again to really deepen. also the mid level circ appears to be weakening pretty quick. just have to watch how the convection develops. We wont have to wait too much longer.