ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

...FRANKLIN APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 86.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[Yellow Evan]

Don't know what the justification is not keeping this at 50 knots.

[Hammy]

We may not see much more strengthening in the Caribbean--pressure was almost leveled off when the plane left, inner core convection doesn't look great, and it looks like landfall will be occurring in the next few hours.

[txwatcher91]

One thing to watch for is if the landfall and frictional affects of land cause the core to tighten up some. I’ve seen this happen several times with tropical systems as they approach or make landfall.

[tropicwatch]

Convection kind of went poof

[Kazmit]

Fortunately for Mexico, Franklin doesn't look like it'll strengthen much more before landfall in a few hours. It'll have another shot at hurricane status once it reemerges.

[ROCK]

Clears out an eye but is choking on some dry air. Just a sloppy wanna be cane. It's got the hottest water in the ALT basin and cannot RI..what a waste next please..

[TheAustinMan]

What a funky structure convectively. Haven't seen much like it... almost like an exaggerated eyewall replacement cycle but with no secondary eyewall to be found.

[Nimbus]

Looks like it pulled in a little dry air from the Yucatan prior to landfall.
Seems to be following the forecast.

[CrazyC83]

It does have the Gulf to go through though.

[tatertawt24]

What a funky structure convectively. Haven't seen much like it... almost like an exaggerated eyewall replacement cycle but with no secondary eyewall to be found.

Reminds me of that hot mess Typhoon Winnie:

[Alyono]

core may tighten up a bit crossing the Yucatan

[tolakram]

SLIDER view

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5521&y=6974&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=18&p%5B1%5D=21&opacity%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B1%5D=0.21&hidden%5B0%5D=0&hidden%5B1%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

GeoColor
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5575&y=6774&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Sciencerocks]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The deep convective band was fragmented from the core with more time it would had
had intense storms wrapping into the core.

[Steve]

I'm sure someone's mentioned it, but its' a fairly large storm despite the breaks. I'm not drawing the comparison to the season, but 2005 featured some pretty big system envelopes. Many of the storms have been smaller this season, but this is a true tropical system, and it's big. Here's hoping we see mostly homebrew this year.

[Kingarabian]

Think the large scale sinking motion is affecting it? Don't see much mid-low level dry air.

[weathaguyry]

Think the large scale sinking motion is affecting it? Don't see much mid-low level dry air.

I'm pretty sure it was pulling in some dry air from the Yucatan, and also since the system is so large, a portion of it is over land, which doesn't really help it.

[Hammy]

Inner core has essentially collapsed based on NHC discussion, and with that happening before it even mores onshore and given the shear forecasts are often underestimated, I'm betting against hurricane intensity in the BoC. Probably slightly stronger than it currently is at most.

[weathaguyry]

Inner core has essentially collapsed based on NHC discussion, and with that happening before it even mores onshore and given the shear forecasts are often underestimated, I'm betting against hurricane intensity in the BoC. Probably slightly stronger than it currently is at most.

The core may tighten up a bit over the Yucatan, so we'll see if that helps it out a little bit