Texas Summer 2017

[Texas Snowman]

I totally understand the frustration in the Metroplex.

Just a reminder I guess that even with multiple meteorologists, high powered computers and several models, it's still a forecast and not a guarantee.

Sometimes Charley doesn't want to go to Tampa.

[Ntxw]

I totally understand the frustration in the Metroplex.

Just a reminder I guess that even with multiple meteorologists, high powered computers and several models, it's still a forecast and not a guarantee.

Sometimes Charley doesn't want to go to Tampa.

Our central Texas friends got plenty overnight, it was worthwhile sacrifice since DFW is ahead for the year anyway. Hopefully we can get a few more chances, in August even 1" of rain is more than good. Cooler temps still on track

[weatherdude1108]

I saw a reference to the DFW discussion and how this complex was not in any of the models, producing low confidence in the forecast. EWX also alluded to that.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 071114
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
614 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

.AVIATION...
Complex of showers and storms continue to push east and will affect
the Austin and San Antonio TAF sites this morning. Should see periods
of thunderstorms through the late morning hours before the system
weakens with the loss of the low-level jet. The forecast beyond this
morning is low-confidence as models do not have any sort of handle on
this event. Think the atmosphere will be pretty worked over and there
is a chance not much more will happen today. Will only mention VCSH
this afternoon and overnight due to the low confidence forecast.

[Portastorm]

I saw a reference to the DFW discussion and how this complex was not in any of the models, producing low confidence in the forecast. EWX also alluded to that.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 071114
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
614 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

.AVIATION...
Complex of showers and storms continue to push east and will affect
the Austin and San Antonio TAF sites this morning. Should see periods
of thunderstorms through the late morning hours before the system
weakens with the loss of the low-level jet. The forecast beyond this
morning is low-confidence as models do not have any sort of handle on
this event. Think the atmosphere will be pretty worked over and there
is a chance not much more will happen today. Will only mention VCSH
this afternoon and overnight due to the low confidence forecast.

It should stop raining here around lunchtime and I doubt we see any more rain today. The atmosphere is worked over pretty good and it would take a great deal of forcing to re-initiate convection. And that is fine with me. Not just me but I know so many people I have already run into today who are THRILLED about the rain and cooler temperatures.

[Shoshana]

I also woke up sometime before 3 am. I didn't hear the thunder at first, but the dog did and pawed at me until I got up and got her Thundershirt and put it on her.

I did get to watch the storm later.

We've had a bit more than 3 inches as of 9:15 when I emptied the rain gauge and it's still raining.

Edited to add: I'm hearing thunder again

[weatherguy425]

Not to jump the gun, but most guidance suggests a similar setup late this weekend, into next week; 8/11 - 8/15. That 'chance' to score in the rain department may come sooner rather than later.

[weatherdude1108]

I saw a reference to the DFW discussion and how this complex was not in any of the models, producing low confidence in the forecast. EWX also alluded to that.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 071114
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
614 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

.AVIATION...
Complex of showers and storms continue to push east and will affect
the Austin and San Antonio TAF sites this morning. Should see periods
of thunderstorms through the late morning hours before the system
weakens with the loss of the low-level jet. The forecast beyond this
morning is low-confidence as models do not have any sort of handle on
this event. Think the atmosphere will be pretty worked over and there
is a chance not much more will happen today. Will only mention VCSH
this afternoon and overnight due to the low confidence forecast.

It should stop raining here around lunchtime and I doubt we see any more rain today. The atmosphere is worked over pretty good and it would take a great deal of forcing to re-initiate convection. And that is fine with me. Not just me but I know so many people I have already run into today who are THRILLED about the rain and cooler temperatures.

I'm ecstatic too! This is normally the hottest part of year (last week in July through the first two weeks of August). Although this year, starting with this past insanely warm Winter, it has been FAR from "normal".

Why not cap it off with a cool and wet August?

I love this cooler and wet time!!

[aggiecutter]

4.75" of rain in Texarkana the past 24 hours. That brings the 5 week total to 12.40".

[CaptinCrunch]

If you didn't live in Montague, Wise, Parker counties then you saw little if any measurable rainfall. I did however make a trip to Bowie yesterday evening and drove right through the middle of that strong cell. Lightening was intense with heavy rainfall, even saw a few storm chasers along 287 just south of Decatur watching the cell as it pushed in.

[JDawg512]

I saw a reference to the DFW discussion and how this complex was not in any of the models, producing low confidence in the forecast. EWX also alluded to that.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 071114
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
614 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

.AVIATION...
Complex of showers and storms continue to push east and will affect
the Austin and San Antonio TAF sites this morning. Should see periods
of thunderstorms through the late morning hours before the system
weakens with the loss of the low-level jet. The forecast beyond this
morning is low-confidence as models do not have any sort of handle on
this event. Think the atmosphere will be pretty worked over and there
is a chance not much more will happen today. Will only mention VCSH
this afternoon and overnight due to the low confidence forecast.

It should stop raining here around lunchtime and I doubt we see any more rain today. The atmosphere is worked over pretty good and it would take a great deal of forcing to re-initiate convection. And that is fine with me. Not just me but I know so many people I have already run into today who are THRILLED about the rain and cooler temperatures.

I'm ecstatic too! This is normally the hottest part of year (last week in July through the first two weeks of August). Although this year, starting with this past insanely warm Winter, it has been FAR from "normal".

Why not cap it off with a cool and wet August?

I love this cooler and wet time!!

Interesting enough, last year was similar in that we almost saw nothing in July but then several inches in August, 10 inches in my yard. I even said a few days ago that it would be awesome if this August ends up the same way lol. Maybe not 10 inches but definitely way more rain just overnight than we saw in all of July.


Over 2 and a half inches here. Other than some light sprinkles, the rain is done.

Some areas across Llano and Burnet counties saw 6-8 inches. If that much rain is gonna fall in our area, that is the most ideal location since the runoff goes into not only the Colorado but the Llano River and Sandy Creek which both flow into the Colorado River.

[Portastorm]

It was 74 degrees at 1 pm at Camp Mabry. 74 degrees!!!!

Yeah, this is glorious weather. The Portastorm Weather Center has recorded 2.28" of rain since midnight.

It also has been great to see ample rains today in areas along and to the SE of I-35 which have been suffering from the worst drought.

[South Texas Storms]

What a great day it's been! I'm very happy to report that SA received about 3.00 inches of beneficial rain today! Very thankful

[weatherdude1108]

What a great day it's been! I'm very happy to report that SA received about 3.00 inches of beneficial rain today! Very thankful

One of my brothers in north SA near the airport reported 3.25 inches of rain just after 12 noon, and counting (at the time).
I'm sure he got slightly more than that.

[gpsnowman]

Very happy for the south cental folks. You definitely deserved this go around. But man, what a colossal bust for DFW. Barely saw some sprinkles last night. The humidity is still high but the temp is tolerable. 86 at last check. Looks like another system next weekend will be our next shot at some rain. Keep em comin.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like Sandy Creek, which feeds into Lake Marble Falls (and eventually downstream into Lake Travis) is just over "Bank Full Stage". That is the only gauge in the highland lakes chain network of gauges that is higher than normal.

[Texas Snowman]

We only had about 0.75 of an inch in Denison last night. But as alluded to earlier, 6-8 inches to our northeast and 2-3 inches about 20 miles to our north on the other side of Lake Texoma.

Also rained very hard in southern Grayson County. A friend of mine in Luella (southeast of Sherman and about 34 miles from McKinney) reported 4.21 inches overnight. Said his 3-acre pond was flowing over its spillway this morning.

That doesn't happen in August very often.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, most of us here in south and central Texas benefitted from the early August gift. It looks like a slow and steady return of heat and dryness doldrums after Wednesday - to be expected climatologically, but boooo.


I'm thankful for the abundant, beneficial rain today. Lasted long and steady enough, and temperatures are cool enough (70s with high dewpoints) to get down into the soil before the ridge sets back in.

However, I'm pulling for the GFS front-related outflow boundaries late this weekend/early next week, rather than the ECMWF's hot and dry doldrums.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
351 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to dissipate across most of
South Central Texas except in the Rio Grande Plains in Maverick
County where some weak instability is helping maintain storms. An MCV
left behind by today`s widespread showers and thunderstorms is
currently pushing into Lee County with an outflow boundary or weak
front along the Gulf Coast near Corpus Christi. Cloud cover has
persisted over most of the region to keep temperatures in the upper
70s to mid 80s, but we are beginning to see some breaks in the clouds
in the Hill Country. SPC Mesoanalysis and aircraft soundings into
SAT and AUS show the atmosphere is fairly stable, but daytime
heating may still allow isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms to redevelop in the Hill Country and possibly our far
eastern counties. Otherwise, storms are generally not expected into
the early evening hours, with the lowest rain chances along the I-35
corridor from Austin to San Antonio where we have 20 POPs in place.

We are expecting that there will be some redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms late in the evening and overnight hours. Most hi-res
models and the current position of the MCV suggest that this will be
in the Coastal Plains well east of the San Antonio metro and I-35
corridor. This makes sense considering the midlevel circulation is
rather deep and will likely cause some large-scale subsidence and
negative vorticity advection on the west side of this MCV. Based on
the confidence in convective redevelopment occurring over the Coastal
Plains counties which have generally only received 1-2 inches of rain
or less (even zero in parts of Karnes County), a Flash Flood Watch is
not necessary at this time. We will only need to consider a watch if
the MCV stalls and a more S-SE LLJ is predicted with model guidance
trending further west with convective redevelopment. However, that
scenario seems unlikely at this time with most areas outside of the
Coastal Plains only seeing isolated showers and thunderstorms with
lows in the 70s.

Models are continuing to trend towards lower convective coverage
tomorrow due to the strength and progression of the MCV and outflow
boundary/front associated with this morning`s storms. Nevertheless,
we still are forecasting isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms as the front potentially tries to lift north as it
dissipates with abundant moisture over the region. Temperatures
warming up into the upper 80s to mid 90s should also increase
instability over the region to allow for less organized convection to
develop. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are not expected since
large scale subsidence is expected to due isentropic descent and NVA
west of the midlevel circulation that will likely be located over
far southeast Texas tomorrow. We will still have to watch for any
shortwave that triggers storms over west Texas tonight leaving
behind an MCV that could move into our area as well, but at this
point it seems more likely that the 30-40 POPs will be decreased in
future forecast cycles than increased.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may continue into Wednesday as the
front dissipates further and the subtropical ridge begins to build
back over the region. Slight rain chances will be limited to only
the Coastal Plains for Thursday and Friday with the entire region
remaining dry on Saturday. High temperatures will also increase back
to near or slightly above normal values in the upper 90s and lower
100s. This subtropical ridge should also keep Tropical Storm Franklin
well south of Texas in the Bay of Campeche as it pushes west through
Mexico and into the East Pacific late Friday into Saturday. The GFS
suggests that slight rain chances may return to our northern counties
on Sunday or Monday as another weak front triggers storms over north
Texas that may push outflow boundaries into our region. However, the
ECMWF generally keeps the region hot and dry which would be the more
likely scenario climatologically for mid-August.

[aggiecutter]

The rain just wont stop north of I-20 and east of a Sulphur Springs to Paris line:

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/894727129421627392

[Cpv17]

Might be an interesting night tonight over SETX with that MCV around. Radar really beginning to light up.