ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at a zoomed out visible, observe the near perfect outflow in a clockwise direction around Franklin, plus the atmospheric wave (not sure what it is) moving east on the right side of the convection. Pretty darn neat.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6372&y=6131&z=2&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

It is a pressure wave caused by the displacement of the atmosphere around that huge convective burst in that feeder band. Not too different from a gravity wave in appearance. Its always cool to see as the crest and peaks of the wave enhance and then suppress cloud formation.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071753
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 24 20170807
174300 1709N 08602W 8428 01583 0127 +165 -400 270010 010 030 000 00
174330 1708N 08603W 8432 01583 0130 +165 -398 277010 011 029 000 00
174400 1707N 08605W 8426 01589 0130 +166 -397 279011 011 030 000 00
174430 1706N 08606W 8433 01583 0131 +167 -396 272010 011 030 000 00
174500 1705N 08607W 8427 01592 0132 +170 -395 272012 012 029 000 00
174530 1704N 08608W 8425 01593 0132 +170 -394 274013 013 028 000 00
174600 1703N 08609W 8430 01588 0133 +170 -393 281012 012 027 001 00
174630 1701N 08610W 8433 01588 0135 +167 -392 282012 012 028 000 00
174700 1700N 08612W 8425 01595 0135 +167 -390 285014 014 028 000 00
174730 1659N 08613W 8429 01589 0135 +169 -389 286015 015 027 001 00
174800 1658N 08614W 8433 01588 0136 +170 -388 288015 015 029 001 00
174830 1657N 08615W 8425 01597 0138 +166 -388 286014 015 029 001 00
174900 1656N 08616W 8429 01591 0138 +165 -387 282012 013 029 002 00
174930 1655N 08618W 8434 01587 0139 +165 -387 284012 013 031 001 00
175000 1654N 08619W 8427 01594 0139 +165 -387 283011 012 030 001 00
175030 1653N 08620W 8430 01589 0135 +166 -387 279011 012 029 002 03
175100 1651N 08620W 8429 01593 0136 +167 -386 277013 014 /// /// 03
175130 1651N 08619W 8426 01582 0123 +167 -385 266014 014 027 002 00
175200 1651N 08617W 8428 01588 0130 +170 -386 257014 014 029 001 00
175230 1651N 08615W 8432 01588 0133 +170 -386 266013 014 029 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE BEFORE LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071749
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072017
A. 07/17:20:10Z
B. 17 deg 59 min N
085 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1405 m
D. 48 kt
E. 025 deg 58 nm
F. 121 deg 46 kt
G. 024 deg 21 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 16 C / 1530 m
J. 19 C / 1521 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C16
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0107A FRANKLIN OB 07
MAX FL WIND 46 KT 024 / 21 NM 17:13:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 220 / 8 KT
;

[hipshot]

Looking at a zoomed out visible, observe the near perfect outflow in a clockwise direction around Franklin, plus the atmospheric wave (not sure what it is) moving east on the right side of the convection. Pretty darn neat.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6372&y=6131&z=2&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

I don't know what the winds speeds are but that sure as heck looks like a 'cane.

[TheAustinMan]

Based on recon VDM, which reported a circular eye of 8 nmi radius, I've outlined the eye in red under Franklin's cloud canopy, assuming that the eye is aligned with the VDM's center fix.

[weathaguyry]

999mb seems like a pretty high reading for Franklin's appearance

[tolakram]

Euro landfall location.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071803
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 25 20170807
175300 1651N 08613W 8425 01594 0133 +167 -386 272015 016 028 000 00
175330 1651N 08611W 8431 01591 0136 +165 -385 269015 016 028 000 00
175400 1651N 08609W 8426 01593 0137 +164 -385 276013 014 032 002 00
175430 1651N 08608W 8429 01594 0143 +159 -385 268013 015 030 002 00
175500 1651N 08606W 8424 01599 0142 +160 -386 272016 016 030 003 00
175530 1651N 08604W 8427 01594 0136 +169 -386 275016 017 029 000 00
175600 1651N 08602W 8430 01592 0139 +167 -387 268015 016 028 000 00
175630 1651N 08600W 8427 01595 0143 +158 -388 262014 015 031 005 00
175700 1651N 08558W 8424 01595 0140 +159 -389 263017 018 030 006 00
175730 1651N 08557W 8436 01585 0136 +166 -389 263018 018 030 000 00
175800 1651N 08555W 8426 01595 0138 +165 -390 263017 017 029 000 00
175830 1651N 08553W 8425 01594 0138 +163 -390 255017 017 028 001 00
175900 1651N 08551W 8432 01588 0138 +164 -391 247017 017 028 000 00
175930 1651N 08549W 8432 01589 0139 +164 -391 247017 017 030 000 00
180000 1651N 08547W 8424 01595 0139 +160 -391 245017 018 029 001 00
180030 1651N 08545W 8433 01587 0139 +163 -390 241018 018 029 000 00
180100 1650N 08544W 8432 01591 0138 +165 -390 239018 019 028 000 00
180130 1650N 08542W 8428 01593 0138 +165 -390 236019 019 027 000 00
180200 1650N 08540W 8430 01589 0135 +168 -389 237020 020 027 000 00
180230 1650N 08538W 8426 01593 0140 +163 -389 236021 024 029 003 03
$$
;

[Kazmit]

It sure doesn't look like a 60mph, 999mb storm. I'll be surprised if it isn't a hurricane by 5pm.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071814
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 26 20170807
180300 1650N 08536W 8442 01576 0149 +148 -389 239018 020 038 008 00
180330 1650N 08534W 8429 01593 0144 +156 -389 236020 021 028 001 00
180400 1650N 08532W 8426 01597 0143 +155 -390 228020 022 028 003 00
180430 1650N 08531W 8426 01593 0137 +164 -392 228019 019 028 001 00
180500 1650N 08529W 8428 01593 0138 +165 -393 233019 019 031 000 00
180530 1650N 08527W 8433 01587 0138 +165 -394 229018 019 031 000 00
180600 1650N 08525W 8427 01594 0139 +165 -394 226019 020 030 000 00
180630 1650N 08523W 8429 01592 0138 +166 -394 226018 019 028 001 00
180700 1650N 08521W 8429 01594 0138 +165 -394 225018 019 028 001 00
180730 1650N 08520W 8425 01597 0141 +161 -393 223018 019 028 000 00
180800 1650N 08518W 8427 01597 0143 +161 -392 217018 019 028 000 00
180830 1650N 08516W 8424 01598 0141 +160 -391 217018 018 028 000 00
180900 1650N 08514W 8431 01592 0142 +161 -390 214018 019 028 001 00
180930 1650N 08512W 8428 01594 0141 +160 -390 216019 019 030 000 00
181000 1650N 08511W 8430 01593 0142 +163 -390 214019 019 030 001 00
181030 1650N 08509W 8424 01598 0144 +159 -390 216017 019 030 004 00
181100 1650N 08507W 8433 01593 0151 +151 -390 209017 019 033 006 00
181130 1650N 08505W 8429 01598 0148 +157 -391 207018 019 029 007 00
181200 1650N 08504W 8428 01598 0147 +160 -391 209019 022 030 000 00
181230 1650N 08502W 8430 01597 0149 +160 -392 208023 023 028 000 00
$$
;

[vbhoutex]

Based on recon VDM, which reported a circular eye of 8 nmi radius, I've outlined the eye in red under Franklin's cloud canopy, assuming that the eye is aligned with the VDM's center fix.

http://i.imgur.com/yNGYbZI.png

I think you are pretty close. In visible loops the "eye" appears to be slightly tilted as tolakram stated earlier. I think that Franklin will stack very soon and continue to intensify. A Cat 1 at Yucatan landfall will not be a surprise at all. It is going to be interesting to watch and see if RI begins before this. If that happens things will get very interesting.

[tolakram]

latest

[ronjon]

Wind just kicked up to about 30 mph, dark and pouring rain again.

Stay safe. Franklin will be right over you tonight, most likely as a hurricane.

Thanks, will do. Prepped up and ready!

Lat 20 looks like NHC has landfall in the Quintana Roo area south of you. However, if Franklin wobbles north you might get the northern eyewall at Tulum so it'll be an interesting night for sure!

[weathaguyry]

Very cool storm to look at! Really is the first quality Atlantic storm of 2017!

[GCANE]

If this BAT doesn't RI it, I don't what does.

[weathaguyry]

If this BAT doesn't RI it, I don't what does.

http://i.imgur.com/dsGzFlU.png

It will be interesting to see what recon finds when it does another pass over there

[GCANE]

Actually, another BAT on the north eyewall as well.
Angle of the sun makes it hard to see on vis, but clear on IR.

[latitude_20]

Stay safe. Franklin will be right over you tonight, most likely as a hurricane.

Thanks, will do. Prepped up and ready!

Lat 20 looks like NHC has landfall in the Quintana Roo area south of you. However, if Franklin wobbles north you might get the northern eyewall at Tulum so it'll be an interesting night for sure!

Thanks! We're ready! 4th rain band moving through now. Our house is in the jungle, and the birds that are normally having siesta right now are going crazy, digging the cooler temperature and rainfall.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

any chance is stays intact over mexico and crosses into the epac as another named storm?