ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

why I not an artist.. lol

anyway. Convection building in all quads around the center. proto eyewall starting to take shape. another 6 to 8 hours could have a eye just before landfall.

[gatorcane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/894546758839132160

That's a pretty impressive stat. I thought these types of systems happen more often this time of year than that.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

About to take off.

Code: Select all

000
URNT15 KNHC 071403
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN           HDOB 01 20170807
135300 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// //// +320 //// 000000 000 /// /// 25
135330 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// //// +320 //// 000000 000 /// /// 25
135400 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// //// +320 //// 000000 000 /// /// 25
135430 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// //// +320 //// 000000 000 /// /// 25
135500 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// //// +320 //// 000000 000 /// /// 25
135530 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// //// +320 //// 000000 000 /// /// 25
135600 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// //// +320 //// 000000 000 /// /// 25
135630 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// //// +320 //// 000000 000 /// /// 25
135700 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// //// +317 //// 000000 000 /// /// 25
135730 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// //// +320 //// 000000 000 /// /// 25
135800 3024N 08855W 0158 00009 //// +320 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
135830 3024N 08855W 0158 00011 //// +313 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
135900 3024N 08855W 0158 00002 //// +315 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
135930 3024N 08855W 0158 00007 //// +318 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140000 3024N 08855W 0158 00004 //// +303 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140030 3024N 08855W 0158 00005 //// +297 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140100 3024N 08855W 0158 00004 //// +306 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140130 3024N 08855W 0158 00006 //// +310 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140200 3024N 08855W 0158 00005 //// +310 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140230 3024N 08855W 0158 00011 //// +312 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Every new frame coming in is showing more and more convection steadily increase all around the center. this might start to bomb out here shortly. Its also briefly stalled.. not the whole system just the inner dynamics as the pressure is falling and the core is developing.. very fun to watch..

[BobHarlem]

Goes 16 visible loop of Franklin:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

[OuterBanker]

Not a good time for the Yucatan resorts.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/894558914402021376

[tolakram]

Goes 16 visible loop of Franklin:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

I found you can bump up the frames. I did 80.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=80&loop_speed_ms=80

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is in the air now we wait 3 hours..
The rate this system is organzing and deepening with a clear and expanding curved band around the center now present. recon may very well find a hurricane. if not on first pass then by end of mission.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071413
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 02 20170807
140300 3024N 08855W 0158 00007 //// +305 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140330 3024N 08855W 0158 00007 //// +302 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140400 3024N 08855W 0158 00012 //// +304 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140430 3024N 08855W 0158 00011 //// +305 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140500 3024N 08855W 0159 00009 //// +307 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140530 3024N 08855W 0158 00009 //// +294 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140600 3024N 08855W 0159 00009 //// +292 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140630 3024N 08855W 0159 00009 //// +297 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140700 3025N 08855W 0159 00007 //// +296 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140730 3025N 08855W 0159 00009 //// +284 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140800 3025N 08855W 0159 00007 //// +281 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140830 3025N 08855W 0160 00007 //// +284 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140900 3025N 08855W 0159 00007 //// +282 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
140930 3025N 08855W 0159 00006 //// +278 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
141000 3025N 08855W 0160 00006 //// +278 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
141030 3025N 08855W 0159 00006 //// +280 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
141100 3025N 08855W 0160 00006 //// +280 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
141130 3025N 08855W 0162 00005 //// +285 //// 000000 000 /// /// 05
141200 3025N 08855W 0158 00006 //// +280 //// 214001 003 /// /// 05
141230 3025N 08855W 0162 00007 //// +271 //// 218005 007 /// /// 05
$$
;

Still on the pad.

[GCANE]

why I not an artist.. lol

anyway. Convection building in all quads around the center. proto eyewall starting to take shape. another 6 to 8 hours could have a eye just before landfall.

The cirrus is quickly thining on the east side of the CoC, just west of that wall of towers.
Very obvious that is where the warmest part of the core is.
Very likely Franklin will have an eye before landfall.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071423
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 03 20170807
141300 3024N 08856W 0018 00117 //// +257 //// 228004 007 /// /// 05
141330 3022N 08857W 9755 00351 //// +238 //// 226006 008 /// /// 05
141400 3021N 08858W 9407 00660 //// +223 //// 226010 012 /// /// 05
141430 3020N 08859W 8995 01055 //// +203 //// 215013 014 /// /// 05
141500 3018N 08900W 8714 01331 //// +190 //// 222014 015 /// /// 05
141530 3017N 08901W 8407 01649 0153 +177 +168 235015 015 /// /// 03
141600 3016N 08902W 8137 01929 0156 +160 +144 235015 015 /// /// 03
141630 3014N 08903W 7901 02181 0158 +144 +127 238013 015 /// /// 03
141700 3013N 08904W 7672 02430 0156 +131 +112 242014 014 /// /// 03
141730 3012N 08905W 7450 02678 0158 +117 +098 234012 013 /// /// 03
141800 3010N 08906W 7235 02924 0157 +103 +085 226010 011 /// /// 03
141830 3009N 08907W 7036 03156 0163 +086 +074 234009 010 /// /// 03
141900 3007N 08907W 6862 03363 0167 +070 +062 233010 010 /// /// 03
141930 3005N 08907W 6681 03585 0162 +061 +051 211010 011 /// /// 03
142000 3004N 08906W 6496 03816 0162 +048 +040 212008 011 /// /// 03
142030 3002N 08906W 6352 04001 0167 +034 +030 214007 008 /// /// 03
142100 3000N 08905W 6205 04193 0169 +023 +021 221004 006 /// /// 03
142130 2958N 08905W 6073 04367 0149 +024 +011 245003 004 /// /// 03
142200 2956N 08904W 5937 04551 0148 +014 +003 238004 004 /// /// 03
142230 2955N 08904W 5826 04704 0146 +005 -006 255006 006 /// /// 03
$$
;

Flight is in the air.

[cycloneye]

Not a good time for the Yucatan resorts.

Moved the post from the 99L thread to this one.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC estimates at 11am ? .... lets see. 60 mph likely.

[Stormcenter]

So are we looking at any potential changes in the projected track because this unanticipated intensification?

[Aric Dunn]

So are we looking at any potential changes in the projected track because this unanticipated intensification?

Probably not much. the ridging appears to be rather firm. maybe slightly ? hard to tell.

[OuterBanker]

Not a good time for the Yucatan resorts.

Moved the post from the 99L thread to this one.

Thanks Cyclone, didn't even realize I posted it in 99l thread. It's what I get for having too many tabs open.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071433
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 04 20170807
142300 2953N 08903W 5701 04877 0135 -001 -013 229007 008 /// /// 03
142330 2951N 08903W 5562 05076 0135 -012 -021 223009 009 /// /// 03
142400 2949N 08903W 5467 05216 0306 -020 -028 225011 012 /// /// 03
142430 2947N 08902W 5358 05373 0313 -025 -035 215012 013 /// /// 03
142500 2945N 08902W 5263 05519 0325 -033 -041 218012 012 /// /// 03
142530 2943N 08901W 5170 05655 0331 -040 -047 215013 013 /// /// 03
142600 2941N 08901W 5044 05852 0345 -054 //// 217012 012 /// /// 05
142630 2940N 08900W 4960 05988 0357 -065 //// 225012 012 /// /// 05
142700 2938N 08900W 4878 06128 0369 -074 //// 231013 013 /// /// 05
142730 2936N 08859W 4816 06224 0376 -083 //// 231012 013 /// /// 05
142800 2934N 08859W 4771 06296 0380 -089 //// 231012 012 /// /// 05
142830 2932N 08859W 4719 06382 0384 -095 //// 238011 012 /// /// 05
142900 2930N 08858W 4660 06478 0389 -099 //// 243011 011 /// /// 05
142930 2928N 08858W 4593 06593 0398 -104 //// 246011 012 /// /// 05
143000 2926N 08857W 4526 06706 0404 -113 //// 237008 010 /// /// 05
143030 2924N 08857W 4458 06822 0413 -116 //// 231006 007 /// /// 05
143100 2922N 08856W 4405 06916 0420 -123 //// 235005 006 /// /// 05
143130 2920N 08856W 4360 06993 0425 -129 //// 246005 006 /// /// 05
143200 2918N 08855W 4295 07112 0433 -132 //// 275006 007 /// /// 05
143230 2918N 08855W 4295 07112 0437 -136 //// 270006 007 /// /// 05
$$
;

[BZSTORM]

Tropical atlantic website has the google earth live feed for those of us who are slow or prefer a more visual representation to translate the data
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... ing=cesium

[cycloneye]

Up to 60 mph at 10 AM CDT advisory

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

...FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

Visible and microwave satellite imagery shows that Franklin's cloud
pattern is becoming better organized with banding features starting
to appear. Inner-core convection is not very abundant over the
southwest quadrant and the center is still estimated to be located
near the southwest edge of the main cloud mass. Given the increase
in organization after the 12Z Dvorak intensity estimate of 45 kt
from TAFB, the advisory intensity is set to 50 kt. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin this
afternoon and should provide a better estimate of the strength of
the storm. The upper-level environment is becoming increasingly
conducive for intensification, with anticyclonic outflow becoming
established over the tropical cyclone during the next couple of
days. Franklin could become a hurricane before its first landfall,
but interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will cause some weakening
on Tuesday. Thereafter, Franklin will be moving over SSTs near 30
deg C, which of course favors strengthening. A complicating factor
at days 2 and 3 could be some northerly shear associated with an
upper-level ridge over northeastern Mexico, as indicated by the
global models. Nonetheless Franklin should be near or at hurricane
intensity by the time it makes landfall in mainland Mexico. The
official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt.
Little changes have been made to the track forecast from previous
advisories. The steering environment remains fairly simple, and is
dominated by a zonally-oriented ridge that should cause a
west-northwestward to westward motion for the next several days.
The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus TVCN and leans slightly toward the ECMWF at the end of
the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.7N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 18.5N 86.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.5N 88.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 20.1N 91.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1200Z 20.5N 93.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/1200Z 20.8N 97.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch