ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

This really feels like an Earl 2.0. But since it's further north, it will have more time to restrengthen over the Bay of Campeche before its second landfall.

That would be 1996 Dolly

[GCANE]

Nice write up by Stewart.
He's on board with the RI idea.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0849.shtml

[Ntxw]

This really feels like an Earl 2.0. But since it's further north, it will have more time to restrengthen over the Bay of Campeche before its second landfall.

That would be 1996 Dolly

You've mentioned Karl 2010. That would be the closest match and upper ceiling for this storm

[Ntxw]

First full visibles and this is quickly becoming a dangerous storm for Mexico

[abajan]

This year we have the new designation "potential tropical cyclone". Thinking back (really don't recall), for the five named storms so far, how many of them were designated "tropical depression" in the course of their existence?

Info on the season's progression so far.

[GCANE]

First full visibles and this is quickly becoming a dangerous storm for Mexico

Lots of overshooting tops in the banding.

[Aric Dunn]

Some towers starting to refire right around the center.... here we go.. by the time recon gets there it may alraedy be in a deepening phase.. I see recon arriving and it being about 65 mph and by the time flight is over a hurricane.. assuming the trends continue.

[weathaguyry]

Amazing, I took until August 7th, but I can say with great confidence that this is a good quality storm, and WILL NOT be a name waster!

[Siker]

if this builds a core before striking the Yucatan, it may be better news for the heavily populated areas down the line. This is what HWRF is showing. Shows a storm without a core when it comes off of the Yucatan. Thus, it is unable to rapidly intensify

This is a really interesting idea and something that's been well observed in previous intense storms over the Yucatán as you mentioned. Is there any literature on the processes behind this or why an established core is disrupted more easily / takes longer to reestablish itself after land?

[tropicwatch]

Anyone think the NHC might adjust the forecast cone a little more northward. Franklin seems to be moving a little further north then expected.

[RL3AO]

That reminder of what the Western Caribbean can do during peak season.

[GCANE]

That one band on the SW side of the CoC is pouring a ton of cirrus into the CDO

[Alyono]

This really feels like an Earl 2.0. But since it's further north, it will have more time to restrengthen over the Bay of Campeche before its second landfall.

That would be 1996 Dolly

You've mentioned Karl 2010. That would be the closest match and upper ceiling for this storm

that's the upper limit. However, I mentioned Dolly as that's the best analog of an Earl-like storm having more time over the water. Karl was a it weaker

[Alyono]

if this builds a core before striking the Yucatan, it may be better news for the heavily populated areas down the line. This is what HWRF is showing. Shows a storm without a core when it comes off of the Yucatan. Thus, it is unable to rapidly intensify

This is a really interesting idea and something that's been well observed in previous intense storms over the Yucatán as you mentioned. Is there any literature on the processes behind this or why an established core is disrupted more easily / takes longer to reestablish itself after land?

I havn't, but I can check when I get some free time later in the month. Would be a good thing to study, but it would require a significant modeling study to determine whether or not this is in fact the case

[tolakram]

>> the new GOES-16 nighttime microphysics imagery

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport/training/rgb_ntmicro/RGB%20Nighttime%20Microphysics%20Reference%20Guide.pdf

Looking at the SLIDER options, it has RGB air mass but not microphysics.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6509&y=7318&z=3&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=18&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Alyono]

this isn't that far north of Honduras. Belize may be in play for a landfall

[GCANE]

Improving outflow fingers on the NE quad indicates poleward outflow-channel strengthening.

[Aric Dunn]

>> the new GOES-16 nighttime microphysics imagery

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport/training/rgb_ntmicro/RGB%20Nighttime%20Microphysics%20Reference%20Guide.pdf

Looking at the SLIDER options, it has RGB air mass but not microphysics.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6509&y=7318&z=3&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=18&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

I have read about it. but yet to find anything but the RGB airmass that you can use on the EMUSTAST site for the last many years. If someone can find the microphysics images that would be great.

[Aric Dunn]

more towers beginning tro fire around the center.. keep an eye motion of those cells as they rotate. will be able to pin point the llc soon.

[wxman57]

I have the center up at 17.6N / 84.9W as of 8am CDT. That's about 110 miles north of Honduras and almost at the northern latitude of Belize. No Belize landfall for Franklin. Would help to have recon in there to confirm, but I think it's in the center of the convection.