ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[JtSmarts]

Finally a decent Atlantic system to track. Hope Mexico is prepared for this.

I agree, I know we have a few Mexican posters here, hopefully they can keep us up to date on what's happening in their areas.

[lrak]

Pretty good pressure drop Station 42057 - Western Caribbean - 195 NM WSW of Negril, Jamaica 16.908 N 81.422 W (16°54'30" N 81°25'18" W)

From 1010 to 1008.9 in an hour.

that buoy now has an east wind it was ESE and the pressure has dropped oh and the winds are gusting to 31.1 kts

[Aric Dunn]

There is definitly another circ deeper into the convection as you can see the westerly inflow into the convection. so something more defined is there.

[lrak]

There is definitly another circ deeper into the convection as you can see the westerly inflow into the convection. so something more defined is there.

I agree by appearance only and the buoy data would suggest it's forming something just south of its location.

[wxman57]

Still no well-defined LLC. Any time you have to "look closely", it still a wave. Should be "Franklin" before reaching the Yucatan, though.

[Aric Dunn]

Still no well-defined LLC. Any time you have to "look closely", it still a wave. Should be "Franklin" before reaching the Yucatan, though.

Advisories are being intiated at 5pm ... there is a well defined circ its very apparent.

[lrak]

Still no well-defined LLC. Any time you have to "look closely", it still a wave. Should be "Franklin" before reaching the Yucatan, though.

yeah I agree, have to wait a couple of hours for the NHC

[lrak]

Still no well-defined LLC. Any time you have to "look closely", it still a wave. Should be "Franklin" before reaching the Yucatan, though.

yeah I agree, have to wait another couple of hours for the NHC

[wxman57]

Still no well-defined LLC. Any time you have to "look closely", it still a wave. Should be "Franklin" before reaching the Yucatan, though.

Advisories are being intiated at 5pm ... there is a well defined circ its very apparent.

If it was well-defined, then the NHC wouldn't be calling it a potential tropical cyclone, they would call it TD Seven (or TS Franklin).

From the NHC advisory discussion:

"Surface and scatterometer data indicate that the broad area of
low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea still lacks a
well-defined center of circulation. However, this system is
likely to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow, and advisories are being initiated."

[Aric Dunn]

Still no well-defined LLC. Any time you have to "look closely", it still a wave. Should be "Franklin" before reaching the Yucatan, though.

Advisories are being intiated at 5pm ... there is a well defined circ its very apparent.

If it was well-defined, then the NHC wouldn't be calling it a potential tropical cyclone, they would call it TD Seven (or TS Franklin).

I guess we will find out in an hour

[lrak]

Still no well-defined LLC. Any time you have to "look closely", it still a wave. Should be "Franklin" before reaching the Yucatan, though.

Advisories are being intiated at 5pm ... there is a well defined circ its very apparent.

If it was well-defined, then the NHC wouldn't be calling it a potential tropical cyclone, they would call it TD Seven (or TS Franklin).

From the NHC advisory discussion:

"Surface and scatterometer data indicate that the broad area of
low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea still lacks a
well-defined center of circulation. However, this system is
likely to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow, and advisories are being initiated."

I don't know because I'm not looking closely anymore. the bottom part of the storm is turning at the surface based on my eyes...LOL

[cycloneye]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

Surface and scatterometer data indicate that the broad area of
low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea still lacks a
well-defined center of circulation. However, this system is
likely to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow, and advisories are being initiated
to enable the issuance of a tropical storm warning and watch for
Yucatan and Belize respectively. The scatterometer pass and NOAA
data buoy observations indicate that the maximum winds are near
30 kt. The disturbance has been experiencing westerly vertical
shear due to a nearby upper-level low and this has been inhibiting
development. Global model predictions show that this low will soon
dissipate and an upper-level anticyclone will become established
over the area. Therefore, strengthening is likely with the main
impediment being interaction with land. The official intensity
forecast is a little above the model consensus. It should be
noted that the system could become a hurricane between 72 and 96
hours, i.e. prior to reaching the Gulf coast of Mexico.

Since the center lacks definition, the initial location and motion
are quite uncertain, and my best guess for the current motion is
290/10. The steering pattern for the disturbance/tropical cyclone
is expected to be fairly straightforward and persistent for the
next few days. A general west-northwestward track is expected to
continue until landfall in mainland Mexico. The official track
forecast is generally a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 15.6N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0600Z 16.6N 83.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.0N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 19.9N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/1800Z 21.2N 97.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[lrak]

Advisories are being intiated at 5pm ... there is a well defined circ its very apparent.

If it was well-defined, then the NHC wouldn't be calling it a potential tropical cyclone, they would call it TD Seven (or TS Franklin).

I guess we will find out in an hour

man I went fishing and got a little tippsi....sorry

[Aric Dunn]

Hehe well there you go. The likelyhood of recon finding a well defiend circ would be very high as they have found and upgraded on less organized systems and that is quite normal.

[Steve]

I agree with 57 that I think this gets named before Yucatán. Still thinking 50-75k and intensifying at second landfal (mid TS - Cat 1)

[stormreader]

This year we have the new designation "potential tropical cyclone". Thinking back (really don't recall), for the five named storms so far, how many of them were designated "tropical depression" in the course of their existence?

[KatDaddy]

Glad it looks to remain well S of the TX Coast at this point. Not ready for any tropical fun and games with work being done on the house. I would not be surprised if this becomes a CAT 1 before landfall near Tampico but will be watching closely through the week.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This year we have the new designation "potential tropical cyclone". Thinking back (really don't recall), for the five named storms so far, how many of them were designated "tropical depression" in the course of their existence?

Arlene and Emily.

[northjaxpro]

This year we have the new designation "potential tropical cyclone". Thinking back (really don't recall), for the five named storms so far, how many of them were designated "tropical depression" in the course of their existence?

Emily was classified as a tropical depression for only about 2 hours. NHC then put out a special advisory to upgrade Emily to TS around 8:00 a.m. last week on July 31.

[stormreader]

This year we have the new designation "potential tropical cyclone". Thinking back (really don't recall), for the five named storms so far, how many of them were designated "tropical depression" in the course of their existence?

Arlene and Emily.

So just two. With that new designation, seems like it makes it more likely that the designation "depression" gets skipped. I guess after that label and then further review, the finding is that the system needs an upgrade to full tropical storm. Wonder if that pattern will continue, in that we won't see the label depression used so much. Wonder also if this system will skip the depression label and go straight to "Franklin".