ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Siker]

Models now have this remaining tangled with an ULL as it moves west beyond 96 hours, previous runs showed this ULL dissipating.

[Happy Pelican]

If history has told us anything, 99L should be watched closely, especially interest along the east coast. Homeowners still aren't home from Sandy and Matthew and don't need anymore surprises.

[TheStormExpert]

And just as quickly as it showed development the Euro drops it.

[TheStormExpert]

If history has told us anything, 99L should be watched closely, especially interest along the east coast. Homeowners still aren't home from Sandy and Matthew and don't need anymore surprises.

No worries! Shear and or dry air/SAL should do it in.

[jason1912]

And just as quickly as it showed development the Euro drops it.

Model flipping to continue.

[AutoPenalti]

And just as quickly as it showed development the Euro drops it.

Not going to be the last time that happens with 99L.

[northjaxpro]

The model flip flopping will continue folks with 99L. Remember the old rule of thumb I talked about earlier today on this thread............

[Emmett_Brown]

A prime example of how the Euro has the same affliction that the GFS has... shows a storm one run, and practically nothing the next, along with quite a difference in strength and orientation of the mid west upper trough from 0z to 12z. Just shows how no model is dependable at this time range.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Biggest thing I take away from all the models is that conditions are unfavorable and look to continue to be unfavorable. They are showing us the so called lid is nowhere near ready to come off in the near future.

[northjaxpro]

Biggest thing I take away from all the models is that conditions are unfavorable and look to continue to be unfavorable. They are showing us the so called lid is nowhere near ready to come off in the near future.

Well, at least for the next 3 -5 days. BUT, DO NOT BE LULLED ASLEEP FOLKS! As long as we have a trackable vort out there present, we NEVER can write it off!!

[Siker]

10/51 EPS members develop this off the East Coast, up from 4 at 00z.

[northjaxpro]

10/51 EPS members develop this off the East Coast, up from 4 at 00z.

Yes, I saw this earlier today. All the more reason to keep closely monitoring this entity going into this upcoming week!

[jason1912]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/894289681432686593

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
About a third of ECMWF EPS members are suggesting #99L may intensify into Tropical Storm while tracking up the east coast. Still monitoring

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/894311964725346304

[OuterBanker]

Where is bones?
Model ping pong is over too isn't it.
Hours now with no discussion.
Should not an epitaph be written for 99l?

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS continues to show no interest in 99L...Late in the long range forecast it does show two potential systems, one in the Atlantic and one in the Caribbean Sea.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure located about midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing only limited
shower and thunderstorm activity. Development, if any, is expected
to be slow to occur while the system moves generally
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[northjaxpro]

Where is bones?
Model ping pong is over too isn't it.
Hours now with no discussion.
Should not an epitaph be written for 99l?

Too early to be writing off this system . NEVER, EVER WRITE OFF A TRACKABLE VORT!!

Also, EURO ensembles are still showing the possibility that 99L will find better conditions as it approaches the U.S. East Coast by the start of next week.

Calling for Bones is just not being objective right now. Yes, 99L is undergoing unfavorable conditions in the near term and is not looking well at this time. But, not time yet to call the old Doc for an appearance right now please.

[AutoPenalti]

Why are we writing off this invest? I'm still not sure what you guys are seeing that we should call bones...

[Hammy]

I think the chances have certainly dropped, but it's still very possible for this to develop in 5+ days once it gets into a more favorable area. That the models don't show anything shouldn't be taken as a guarantee, as Bret, Don, and Emily both formed with little to no model support especially more than 2-3 days out.