ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[weathaguyry]

90L appears to have moved into better conditions, so development should start to become evident in the near future

[tropicwatch]

There has been a fairly decent increase in 850mb vorticity this morning. A little elongated S to N but looking better.

[Aric Dunn]

Wave axis appears to have shifted from a SW to NE orientation to S to N suggesting environmental conditions are becoming much more favorable and the Easterly trades are slowing as 90L approaches the Guatemala/Honduras Border. This is about 24 hours faster than what was expected yesterday. My hunch is we will see a much more strongly word TWO at 2:00 PM EDT from the NHC. TC Genesis Probabilities over the next 48 hours have increased rather dramatically compared to yesterday in The NW Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Honduras.

Very likely they will. Especially given the vort/circ that has just popped out of the convection. it may not be fully to the surface but it clear that its very close.

[Siker]

00z Euro claims we'll have a TD tonight. Not sure it will be THAT organized by then but certainly by sometime tomorrow.

[tropicwatch]

Latest ASCAT pass.

[tropicwatch]

Buoy Station 42057 - Western Caribbean - 195 NM WSW of Negril, Jamaica 16.908 N 81.422 W (16°54'30" N 81°25'18" W)

Showing wind shift to ESE for last 20min. with an average of 24kts.

llc might be at surface.

[NDG]

Buoy Station 42057 - Western Caribbean - 195 NM WSW of Negril, Jamaica 16.908 N 81.422 W (16°54'30" N 81°25'18" W)

Showing wind shift to ESE for last 20min. with an average of 24kts.

llc might be at surface.

No LLC yet, the ASCAT image you posted clearly shows that the circulation at the surface is still broad.

[Aric Dunn]

Buoy Station 42057 - Western Caribbean - 195 NM WSW of Negril, Jamaica 16.908 N 81.422 W (16°54'30" N 81°25'18" W)

Showing wind shift to ESE for last 20min. with an average of 24kts.

llc might be at surface.

No LLC yet, the ASCAT image you posted clearly shows that the circulation at the surface is still broad.

Yeah, it is broad and not well defined enough for classification. it does, however, have west winds per the ASCAT somewhat removed but still present. it would not take much more convection to develop around that weak circ that popped out the convection for it to become more defined.

[Sanibel]

Still displaced by shear in my opinion...

[psyclone]

90L is a reminder that real hurricane season is here. Name wasters are about to become far less frequent. Provided it can maintain sufficient latitude, I agree with the hurricane potential prior to Tampico. .

[Aric Dunn]

There now 2 visible vorts now rotating around.

[GCANE]

Off-the-Scale Rain Rate.
Nothing better for heating the core up.

[cycloneye]

First mission on Monday afternoon if needed.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 061630
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 06 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUGUST 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-067

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 07/1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
       C. 07/1400Z
       D. 18.5N 86.5W
       E. 07/1700Z TO 07/2330Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. BEGIN POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES AT 08/1730Z
       NEAR 18.5N 86.5W.
       B. POSSIBLE NOAA42 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS
       DEPARTING KLAL AT 08/1800Z AND 09/0600Z.

    3. REMARKS:
       A. INVEST MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 06/1800Z CANCELLED
       BY NHC AT 06/1005Z.
       B. MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 07/1130Z, 1730Z
       REQUIREMENTS WILL DELAY SIX HOURS. SEE REVISED
       FLIGHT INFORMATION ABOVE.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO=80%-90%

Satellite data indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
formed over the western Caribbean Sea about 150 miles east of the
eastern coast of Honduras. In addition, winds just below
tropical-storm-force are occurring to the northeast of the center.
The associated showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming
better organized, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will
likely form before the low reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
late Monday or early Tuesday. After the system crosses the Yucatan
Peninsula, it is expected to move across the Bay of Campeche by
midweek where additional development is expected. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this low
on Monday, if necessary. Interests along the coasts of Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system as heavy rains and strong winds are possible at those
locations.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[weathaguyry]

WOW

[alan1961]

Noticed a Gulfstream jet on a flight from San Jose, Costa Rica to Miami Opa Locka Excutive Airport this afternoon, the flight right over 90l invest area, wonder if it was doing any work?

[wxman57]

No big surprise. Should have been 90% 3 days ago. Meets the PTC criteria now. NHC should initiate advisories shortly.

[Tireman4]

No big surprise. Should have been 90% 3 days ago. Meets the PTC criteria now. NHC should initiate advisories shortly.

So just to be clear..no to Texas at this time....sir?

[Alyono]

UKMET stronger and into Veracruz


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.7N 85.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2017 36 17.7N 85.9W 1004 31
1200UTC 08.08.2017 48 18.6N 87.8W 1001 39
0000UTC 09.08.2017 60 19.2N 90.3W 999 36
1200UTC 09.08.2017 72 19.4N 93.0W 995 44
0000UTC 10.08.2017 84 19.0N 95.6W 989 44
1200UTC 10.08.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING

[Alyono]

would not be surprised if this has an intensity evolution similar to Karl from 2010. Cannot rule out a cat 3 in the Gulf out of this. Conditions are that favorable