ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[stormreader]

It is coming together, and perhaps a little further north than appeared last night. I agree with Wxman 57 that a tropical storm is likely in the Caribbean. Some of the more recent models showed impact around Belize. I think its going to be north of there. But not as I thought a couple of days ago. At that time there was a Euro run that took it over the northern Yucatan. I think central Yucatan is more likely now. I think S Texas is still in the mix. Some of the moisture models that I saw posted by my local met yesterday showed the moisture gravitating up the Texas coast. Which makes me think a landfall between Brownsville and Corpus Christi has to be considered.

[Ntxw]

It has good convection, structure below is not great yet but likely working on it.

[srainhoutx]

The good old Carla Cradle as I like to call the SW Caribbean. Many memorable Hurricanes had their Genesis over the years in this area...

[tarheelprogrammer]

Beautiful images of it here. If you zoom in you can see the possible LLC on the western part of the heavy convection.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=13332&y=7905&z=4&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=80&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[stormreader]

Stepping back to observe both of the invests. Sort of tells the story.

[latitude_20]

This appears to be evolving into a beautiful little system. And might just screw up my fishing plans for Monday, lol.

[tailgater]

Nice veiw of Invest 90L on the Geo Color
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=13130&y=8395&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider#

[tarheelprogrammer]

Stepping back to observe both of the invests. Sort of tells the story.

You can really tell that 90L is getting its act together. Any METs know if shear will stay low out ahead of 90L?

[BobHarlem]

Wow the Texas -removed- is strong in this thread, I still don't see anything that could bring it that far north, trends have kinda been the opposite.

[stormreader]

Does appear that trough and surface high pressure is moving nicely into the northern gulf coastal waters, but also scooting off to the east (not that deep). Perhaps we are seeing what could be the forecast weakness in the western Gom in a few days.

[stormlover2013]

Not Texas -removed- look at the ridge, stronger system will move little bit to north

[WAcyclone]

The RAMMB-SLIDER is unfortunately still not working smoothly for me. However, this zoomed one-minute loop of 90L works perfectly: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

[Alyono]

Yep, and if it does become a TS before reaching to Yucatan, it will probably track a bit farther north and closer to Texas.

the models that develop this before reaching the Yucatan have it remaining in the BOC. They indicate a hard left turn

Yeah but it also seems like the models are initializing the vorticity south of where the system is beginning to develop.

don't think it will matter at all with the ridging over the Gulf. All that would do is potentially give this more time over the Gulf. Could be the difference between a borderline ts/cat 1 and a borderline cat 2/3 for Mexico

[latitude_20]

Wow the Texas -removed- is strong in this thread, I still don't see anything that could bring it that far north, trends have kinda been the opposite.

Look at steering. Look at shear tendency. Look at SSTs. Look at the latest TAFB surface analysis. Look at the satellite imagery.

[tropicwatch]

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 05 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z AUGUST 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-066

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 06/1800Z                         A. 07/1130Z, 1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST        B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
       C. 06/1400Z                         C. 07/0800Z
       D. 16.0N 81.0W                    D. 17.0N 85.0W
       E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z     E. 07/1100Z TO 07/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT             F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
    FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

[NDG]

Does appear that trough and surface high pressure is moving nicely into the northern gulf coastal waters, but also scooting off to the east (not that deep). Perhaps we are seeing what could be the forecast weakness in the western Gom in a few days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/wv-animated.gif

South of the upper trough across South FL into the south central GOM is a stout mid level Bermuda ridge extension, the next trough would have to really dig down to weaken enough the western extension of the ridge, so far no models are showing this, they continue to show the ridge holding strong along the central and northern GOM.

[cycloneye]

Fixed the post adding the code to have the missions more clear.

[NDG]

Not Texas -removed- look at the ridge, stronger system will move little bit to north

They only move more to the north if ridging is weak!

[stormreader]

Does appear that trough and surface high pressure is moving nicely into the northern gulf coastal waters, but also scooting off to the east (not that deep). Perhaps we are seeing what could be the forecast weakness in the western Gom in a few days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/wv-animated.gif

South of the upper trough across South FL into the south central GOM is a stout mid level Bermuda ridge extension, the next trough would have to really dig down to weaken enough the western extension of the ridge, so far no models are showing this, they continue to show the ridge holding strong along the central and northern GOM.

http://i.imgur.com/y3LxLhr.png

Thanks. I wouldn't have thought that the "Bermuda extension" or ridging would be so strong just south of the upper trough. Appreciate the info.

[MGC]

90L is progressing nicely this morning. Should be a TC in next couple of days if it continues to organize.....MGC