ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Just checked AMSU.
At 00Z they have a 1C Warm Core.
Pretty tight too.
That may nail it.

[SFLcane]

"THIS " is a developing cyclone.. some banding features already.

[tailgater]

First visible images showing very little at the surface but conditions sure seem to be improving . As CGane said some prolong heavy convection even it is from the shear would increase it's chances , also seem a little farther north of what I expected

[stormlover2013]

Prob just a tease

[GCANE]

First visible images showing very little at the surface but conditions sure seem to be improving . As CGane said some prolong heavy convection even it is from the shear would increase it's chances , also seem a little farther north of what I expected

Its a pretty complex system
Northern part is likely a shear-driven MCS.
Can even see an outflow boundary shooting out, marked by red arrow.
The southern part does have a warm core.
1C at this latitude may not kick in a lot of Coriolis force to start to spin it from the updraft.
I think if we get a hot tower around the blue circled area, that could heat up the core and get it to spin up.
Also, moving more north with persistant convection would increase its odds as well.

[GCANE]

New cell circled in blue.
A lot closer to the red x.
Anything that fires NW to W of the red-x xould likely pull the cork.

[GCANE]

Looking on Visible SAT; that blue circled cell was definetly a short-duration hot tower. Its leaving behind a cirrus top.
Judging by how the convection is walking CCW around the red-X, very likely there is a surface low.

[stormlover2013]

Gcane: so do u think we have something brewing ??

[tropicwatch]

Latest Windsat. Some what discombobulated

[GCANE]

Gcane: so do u think we have something brewing ??

Looks pretty good

[wxman57]

Very impressive this morning. I still think it has a much better chance of developing in the next 5 days than 99L. May be a TS before it reaches the Yucatan if this keeps up.

[tailgater]

Latest Windsat. Some what discombobulated

Great pic of the forces at work here, Shear blowing the tops off, easterly trades, low level inflow, and the semi permanent low near Panama.

[South Texas Storms]

Very impressive this morning. I still think it has a much better chance of developing in the next 5 days than 99L. May be a TS before it reaches the Yucatan if this keeps up.

Yep, and if it does become a TS before reaching to Yucatan, it will probably track a bit farther north and closer to Texas.

[stormlover2013]

Yeah by looking at the ridge it could get to corpus

[Alyono]

Very impressive this morning. I still think it has a much better chance of developing in the next 5 days than 99L. May be a TS before it reaches the Yucatan if this keeps up.

Yep, and if it does become a TS before reaching to Yucatan, it will probably track a bit farther north and closer to Texas.

the models that develop this before reaching the Yucatan have it remaining in the BOC. They indicate a hard left turn

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/893821652550766593

[NDG]

All I am seeing is all kind of outflows coming out of the deep convection, surface trough is west of all of the convection.
The area to watch is the south central Caribbean tomorrow.

[South Texas Storms]

Very impressive this morning. I still think it has a much better chance of developing in the next 5 days than 99L. May be a TS before it reaches the Yucatan if this keeps up.

Yep, and if it does become a TS before reaching to Yucatan, it will probably track a bit farther north and closer to Texas.

the models that develop this before reaching the Yucatan have it remaining in the BOC. They indicate a hard left turn

Yeah but it also seems like the models are initializing the vorticity south of where the system is beginning to develop.

[srainhoutx]

I am seeing more individual Ensemble members of the 51 ECMWF EPS individual members creeping further North each successive run with several members as far North as Brownsville to just S of Corpus Christi. TC Genesis Probabilities increased a bit in the NW Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche. The MJO Filtered Velocity Potential has also increased. I believe we will have TS Franklin before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula.

[stormlover2013]

If that happens I believe this could crawl up towards corpus