ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BlowHard]

I am definitely not a professional meteorologist, nor do I pretend to be. I live in PR and do a little FB page of the local weather because I find tracking the hurricanes to be fascinating and also think there is a largely local twist that goes into that we cannot find elsewhere. So for two years, I've watched wind shear and sahara dust blow apart storms that were given high success rates to become tropical cyclones, as predicted by the NHC. Now I am looking at this one (which I do NOT want to develop, believe me) and I just don't see what other people are talking about in regards to SAL and shear. The shear is about as low as I've ever seen it and the SAL is light by local standards. (I could show you some pics that are basically all red, all over)....So I don't see the two things I usually look at first to determine if a storm will likely develop. Clearly, I am missing something. I know what part of that is, and I am wondering if someone can give me an explanation that will help me. I see people talking about ridges moving off the rockies, etc but I don't know what that results in or how it impacts the development of these storms. Is it that the ridge moves down and creates a high pressure area that alters the path of the storm? Can someone enlighten this rank amateur?

I am bumping this because I am still hopeful someone wants to give me an explanation...y aknow, instead of arguing over models. Anyone? Bueller?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track continues below 10N.

AL, 99, 2017080500, , BEST, 0, 98N, 310W, 25, 1010, LO

[1900hurricane]

RL3AO ,any new ASCAT comming soon that you know about?

Looks like we got a partial hit from about two hours ago.

[RL3AO]

RL3AO ,any new ASCAT comming soon that you know about?

The other satellite will be passing by in the next hour, but I think it's gonna miss most of it.

[cycloneye]

RL3AO ,any new ASCAT comming soon that you know about?

Looks like we got a partial hit from about two hours ago.

]http://i.imgur.com/MtHPu92.png

Thank you for posting it.Still elongated.

[txwatcher91]

Latest satellite images are showing the convection intensifying and trying to consolidate a bit better. The shear in front of it is very low for the next few days and dry air seems rather minimal for now.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The long-range 18Z GFs ensembles are split between Florida and heading up to North Carolina:

We've been plagued by frequent troughs all summer on the East Coast. I can easily see this system catching a ride up and perhaps out with a trough, but time will tell.

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance:

[StormTracker]

I am definitely not a professional meteorologist, nor do I pretend to be. I live in PR and do a little FB page of the local weather because I find tracking the hurricanes to be fascinating and also think there is a largely local twist that goes into that we cannot find elsewhere. So for two years, I've watched wind shear and sahara dust blow apart storms that were given high success rates to become tropical cyclones, as predicted by the NHC. Now I am looking at this one (which I do NOT want to develop, believe me) and I just don't see what other people are talking about in regards to SAL and shear. The shear is about as low as I've ever seen it and the SAL is light by local standards. (I could show you some pics that are basically all red, all over)....So I don't see the two things I usually look at first to determine if a storm will likely develop. Clearly, I am missing something. I know what part of that is, and I am wondering if someone can give me an explanation that will help me. I see people talking about ridges moving off the rockies, etc but I don't know what that results in or how it impacts the development of these storms. Is it that the ridge moves down and creates a high pressure area that alters the path of the storm? Can someone enlighten this rank amateur?

I am bumping this because I am still hopeful someone wants to give me an explanation...y aknow, instead of arguing over models. Anyone? Bueller?

Okay, so basically those ridges(fronts/frontal boundaries)being referred to come down to the south & east to interact with the Bermuda or Azores High, and at the point where they meet(timing and strength-wise)can create weaknesses that can cause a tropical system to recurve to the east of the CONUS(hopefully)or if the "front" gets there too late, and the Bermuda High is strong and bumped up against the east coast of the US, then the storm is forced further west, possibly creating havoc for some place in the US. Just a brief and quick explanation that hopefully helps you to understand better and answer your question...ST

[cycloneye]

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

An hr ago on tropical tidbits it was at 9.9N it is now at 9.8N it is inching lower in lattitude

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you to everyone posting the models, I don't know why I want to see it. But any chance someone would be kind enough to post that GFS run a few frames sooner. Where does the center cross over the Keys.

[WeatherEmperor]

Thank you to everyone posting the models, I don't know why I want to see it. But any chance someone would be kind enough to post that GFS run a few frames sooner. Where does the center cross over the Keys.

Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[hipshot]

An hr ago on tropical tidbits it was at 9.9N it is now at 9.8N it is inching lower in lattitude

I have been trying to find Levi's info on the website with commentary like we used to get here on occasion. How or where can I find it?

[BobHarlem]

Thank you to everyone posting the models, I don't know why I want to see it. But any chance someone would be kind enough to post that GFS run a few frames sooner. Where does the center cross over the Keys.

Its in between frames, but extrapolated it would be right over Marathon.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you WeatherEmperor,

Hard to tell but looking at it seems to be around Islamorada maybe a tad north. Ntot what I want to see at all, puts my house in Key Largo on the bad side.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks Bob.

[GeneratorPower]

Sorry for the blatant IMBY post, but this run pushes right front quadrant up into Southwest Florida. That would be bad.

[AutoPenalti]

An hr ago on tropical tidbits it was at 9.9N it is now at 9.8N it is inching lower in lattitude

If anything that's most likely because of convection building not necessarily because it's moving south.

[caneseddy]

Thank you to everyone posting the models, I don't know why I want to see it. But any chance someone would be kind enough to post that GFS run a few frames sooner. Where does the center cross over the Keys.

Its in between frames, but extrapolated it would be right over Marathon.

Eerily similar track to Hurricane Donna