ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

948 mbs at 120 hours.

[cycloneye]

Run ends close to northern Leewards.

[Nimbus]

969 Mb's is not an unreasonably low pressure for even a large storm given all the warm water between -41W and the islands. Final low pressure of the 18z HWRF coming into the islands is 947 mb's which would require a rapid intensification that we haven't seen for a while..

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

With the system running relatively low in lattitude what do the nhc and other models see that suddenly makes it gain sudden northern lattitude

[WeatherEmperor]

So as of this moment we have the Euro and Navgem showing very little to no development.

The Ukmet shows what appears to be a weak TD/TS.

The Gfs and Canadian show a hurricane.

Major model busts are in order because the 48-72 hour forecasts are about to bust in a big way for some of these models because this is where development happens for those models that do show development. Interesting times ahead...


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[gatorcane]

The long-range 18Z GFs ensembles are split between Florida and heading up to North Carolina:

[Nimbus]

So as of this moment we have the Euro and Navgem showing very little to no development.

The Ukmet shows what appears to be a weak TD/TS.

The Gfs and Canadian show a hurricane.

Major model busts are in order because the 48-72 hour forecasts are about to bust in a big way for some of these models because this is where development happens for those models that do show development. Interesting times ahead...


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The 18z HWRF keeps this as a weak 1007 mb depression till -41W so that gives it some time to work the dry air out.

[gatorcane]

850mb vort is quite strong. Usually when you see it this strong in the tropics this time of year something ends up developing:

[otowntiger]

18Z GFS shows a sheared system

Conditions according to the models will be MORE HOSTILE as this approaches the Caribbean. It has its most favorable conditions now

If that's true, then write this sucker off now!

[WeatherEmperor]

So as of this moment we have the Euro and Navgem showing very little to no development.

The Ukmet shows what appears to be a weak TD/TS.

The Gfs and Canadian show a hurricane.

Major model busts are in order because the 48-72 hour forecasts are about to bust in a big way for some of these models because this is where development happens for those models that do show development. Interesting times ahead...


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

The 18z HWRF keeps this as a weak 1007 mb depression till -41W so that gives it some time to work the dry air out.

Aaaah yes I forgot about the HWRF. Also, it is worth noting that tha HMON keeps it very weak, has only a weak low


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[Ptarmigan]

I looked at the forecast models and some have Invest 99L as our first major hurricane of the season. I think this will be Franklin.

[OuterBanker]

At least the models don't come this way. After Matthew we need a few years off to recover fully. But, I do realize that it's probably too much to ask for here.

[Nimbus]

So as of this moment we have the Euro and Navgem showing very little to no development.

The Ukmet shows what appears to be a weak TD/TS.

The Gfs and Canadian show a hurricane.

Major model busts are in order because the 48-72 hour forecasts are about to bust in a big way for some of these models because this is where development happens for those models that do show development. Interesting times ahead...


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

The 18z HWRF keeps this as a weak 1007 mb depression till -41W so that gives it some time to work the dry air out.

Aaaah yes I forgot about the HWRF. Also, it is worth noting that tha HMON keeps it very weak, has only a weak low


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Tell you what I will do, If 99L reaches -60w without without a pressure drop to 969 mb's I will make a donation to Storm2k. Remind me..

[WeatherEmperor]

The 18z HWRF keeps this as a weak 1007 mb depression till -41W so that gives it some time to work the dry air out.

Aaaah yes I forgot about the HWRF. Also, it is worth noting that tha HMON keeps it very weak, has only a weak low


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Tell you what I will do, If 99L reaches -60w without without a pressure drop to 969 mb's I will make a donation to Storm2k. Remind me..

Hahaha I understand. Yeah this isba tricky forecast and the models remain stubbornly divided. Lets stay tuned and find out which ones are correct.


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[wxman57]

Still looks like crapola (pardon my French). I don't see any more favorable environment ahead of it. Don't know what the NHC folks are looking at to keep development chances so high.

[AutoPenalti]

Still looks like crapola (pardon my French). I don't see any more favorable environment ahead of it. Don't know what the NHC folks are looking at to keep development chances so high.

Well maybe they see something that we don't.

[gatorcane]

Still looks like crapola (pardon my French). I don't see any more favorable environment ahead of it. Don't know what the NHC folks are looking at to keep development chances so high.

While the environment is unfavorable ahead of it now, I think the NHC is looking at how the GFS builds an anti-cyclone over 99L as it moves west and that shear zone near the Lesser Antilles gets pushed out of the way. 0 to 120 hour animation below shows this:

[SFLcane]

Still looks like crapola (pardon my French). I don't see any more favorable environment ahead of it. Don't know what the NHC folks are looking at to keep development chances so high.

Ok 57 sooo its done? There are still some models developing this infact the 12z GEFS ensembles still were very bullish.

[Blown Away]

Still looks like crapola (pardon my French). I don't see any more favorable environment ahead of it. Don't know what the NHC folks are looking at to keep development chances so high.

Models agree with you for next 3-4 days, then it seems pretty favorable if 99L can miss the big islands... Amateurs & Pro's heavily rely on models especially long range, so can't totally discount it, IMO.

[cycloneye]

RL3AO ,any new ASCAT comming soon that you know about?