ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

It could be that the lid stays on a little longer , because the GFS has backed off development of this system. MRD still hostile. Could regenerate further west?

[AtlanticWind]

This seems like a more reasonable solution on the GFS than it was on earlier runs which it strengthen it
to quickly. Now will see what happens as it approaches the islands and the bahamas.

[Blown Away]

96 hrs... 06z had 966mb Major Cane... 12z has 1002mb TS... 12z slightly faster and SW of 06z... Big difference this run... Maybe NE Caribbean in cross hairs on 12z???

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 156 hrs... Weak TD/TS Landfall In PR... 06z was monster Cat 3/4 955 mb Cane...

12z GFS 168 hrs... Weak TS about to get consumed by DR or just S Of DR... Might be game over for 99L on this run...

[CrazyC83]

If it stays that low, I would think it just gets sheared apart. Shades of Erika 2015 in terms of track and setup?

[wxman57]

I'm thinking 5-10% chance of development next 48 hrs, 20% within 120 hrs. Maybe as high as 50-60% chance beyond 5 days if it survives.

[BobHarlem]

This GFS run seems a lot more sane than the prior ones, although 90L it really does nothing with. For 99L this is probably a lot closer to reality.

Edit: looks like it'll be eaten up by HIspaniola

[PTrackerLA]

I'm sorry, but the GFS is garbage. What a fold to all the other models in just one run. I'll be looking at it with a grain of salt this season until it proves me otherwise.

[Siker]

12z UKMET delaying development significantly, but also further northeast:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 17.9N 56.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.08.2017 132 18.7N 57.7W 1011 35
1200UTC 10.08.2017 144 20.3N 60.6W 1009 38

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 180 hrs... Consumed by Hispaniola...

[Siker]

I'm thinking 5-10% chance of development next 48 hrs, 20% within 120 hrs. Maybe as high as 50-60% chance beyond 5 days if it survives.

Oh no, please just kill it off beyond 5 days. Or else we're just dealing with 99L from last year all over again .

[AubreyStorm]

I'm thinking 5-10% chance of development next 48 hrs, 20% within 120 hrs. Maybe as high as 50-60% chance beyond 5 days if it survives.

Only 5-10? Right now have it 50/80% as per NHC, so explain pleaseeee

[weathaguyry]

This may end up being more of a now-cast situation, since none of the models develop this any time soon, yet the NHC is giving this a 50/80, they must know something that we don't

[PTrackerLA]

I'm thinking 5-10% chance of development next 48 hrs, 20% within 120 hrs. Maybe as high as 50-60% chance beyond 5 days if it survives.

Only 5-10? Right now have it 50/80% as per NHC, so explain pleaseeee

Losing near term model support quickly. Might still be too early for the "lid" to come off after all as the 12z GFS shows 99L fighting shear and dry air.

[Hurricaneman]

If this goes 50 or so miles south of the GFS this could be primed for quick development south of Cuba so stay tuned

[BobHarlem]

For what it's worth (not much this far out) it's in the Gulf at 234 hours (August 14th) and deepening and heading toward Southeast LA (Tropical Storm Landfall?)

[PTrackerLA]

For entertainment purposes, landfalls in Louisiana this run

[SFLcane]

Nogaps + GFS about the same... complete joke lol

[Hurricaneman]

Nogaps + GFS about the same... complete joke lol

I believe the Euro has this near Belize as something trackable in 10 days

[otowntiger]

Its easy to tell that model support and current conditions are less than vigorous (to say the least) by observing how activity on this board has nearly died off, lol.