ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

The 6Z GFS initialized with a closed 1010mb low at about 9N, 28.2 W. So, according to the GFS, we basically have a TD as of 6z last night. Is this an indication that the GFS is getting ahead of itself and developing 99L too quickly?

It probably is. The GFS also seems to be repeating the pattern of developing a new convective burst to the west tonight and letting that become the main focus.

[Siker]

FWIW, the GFS seems to be modelling the current decrease in convection fairly well.

[otowntiger]

I still think 90L has the better chance of developing over the next 5 days. This system may continue to struggle for the next 5-6 days. Perhaps a TD or weak TS, but the Caribbean system may well become a hurricane.

Wxman57: do you think that 99l has a chance at developing after 5-6 days? Or do you see it struggling its whole life? I know it's hard to say where this will even go that far out, much less what intensity it will have at that time, but I'm curious if you have thoughts/insight about the long term outlook on both counts for this system?
thanks!

[alienstorm]

I would say that chances are dropping given that SAL intrusion is starting to take it toll. Also note it is stretch out and no signs of consolidation. Wouldn't be surprise to see the % start dropping later this afternoon.

[gatorcane]

I would give the upgraded GFS about as much weight as the NAVGEM at this point. I think it is about ready to do a big "face palm" on this system just like it has done with some EPAC systems so far this year like Hilary and not-to-be-Jova.

[gatorcane]

Development looks possible but nowhere near what the GFS is showing.

You can see dry air already really impacting the system so I have no idea why the GFS thinks it will immediately develop. Something seems wrong with the model, maybe the input data or something or perhaps the latest upgrade has introduced regressions:

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say chances are becoming that this is more likely not to develop than to.

GFS is just repeating what we already dealt with from it exactly a month ago. It seems the new GFS upgrade did little if anything to fix it.

[Emmett_Brown]

Then the next few GFS runs will be interesting to watch... I assume we'll see very different track and intensity solutions in the next few runs if the storm develops more slowly than GFS thought.

[RL3AO]

I'd say chances are becoming that this is more likely not to develop than to.

So you think this is more likely to never develop into a TC?

[BobHarlem]

I'd say chances are becoming that this is more likely not to develop than to.

GFS is just repeating what we already dealt with from it exactly a month ago. It seems the new GFS upgrade did little if anything to fix it.

We're in August, it'll develop, but not to the degree the GFS is showing. I think the Euro is under doing it and too far south (The GFS is too far north), the northern leewards might get a clip of it, probably a TS or hurricane at that point. (Just personally weighing the various models)

As for Outlook chances, short term may go down a bit, long term probably will stay the same. The SAL is nowhere near it right now, it's just trying to get organized.

[TheStormExpert]

Hopefully the GFS starts accounting for all the SAL and dry air out there in the next run, not to mention the shear that it faces once near the NE Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

12z Track

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say chances are becoming that this is more likely not to develop than to.

So you think this is more likely to never develop into a TC?

I'd say for now it's a 50/50 with me leaning more towards less development. It has a LONG hard road ahead of it!

[ronjon]

Some broad turning but lack of heavy convection. Will develop at some point given its got about 2,000 miles of open ocean to cover.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say chances are becoming that this is more likely not to develop than to.

GFS is just repeating what we already dealt with from it exactly a month ago. It seems the new GFS upgrade did little if anything to fix it.

We're in August, it'll develop, but not to the degree the GFS is showing. I think the Euro is under doing it and too far south (The GFS is too far north), the northern leewards might get a clip of it, probably a TS or hurricane at that point. (Just personally weighing the various models)

As for Outlook chances, short term may go down a bit, long term probably will stay the same.

Just cause it's August doesn't mean waves will be guaranteed to develop.

[RL3AO]

I'd say chances are becoming that this is more likely not to develop than to.

So you think this is more likely to never develop into a TC?

I'd say for now it's a 50/50 with me leaning more towards less development. It has a LONG hard road ahead of it!

You showed me a map of a tropical wave with a less than normal amount of dry air around it and a current shear map where the model says it will be in 7 days.

[Slughitter3]

Hey all, I don't post much, but curious of thoughts... with 99L seemingly splitting convection blobs, any chance of one running away from the other and creating two separate systems? I know the surface maps showed a new low developing, but will one effectively kill the other? Thanks!

[RL3AO]

Hey all, I don't post much, but curious of thoughts... with 99L seemingly splitting convection blobs, any chance of one running away from the other and creating two separate systems? I know the surface maps showed a new low developing, but will one effectively kill the other? Thanks!

I think we're just seeing the result of convection firing along the monsoon trough leading to an elongated and unorganized system. Even with favorable conditions, this would be the type of system that needs days to slowly organize.

[tolakram]

I would say that chances are dropping given that SAL intrusion is starting to take it toll. Also note it is stretch out and no signs of consolidation. Wouldn't be surprise to see the % start dropping later this afternoon.

What SAL intrusion are you referencing?

[msbee]

Good morning
Can someone please provide me with link for the spaghetti models for this invest?
thank you