ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

So it's the GFS verses everyone else. Where have I've seen this before?

[Nimbus]

So the models can't decide whether to initialize this near -28W or -22W yet and the GFS is parking a cat 4 or 5 Hurricane off the east coast of Florida in 10 days to give flashbacks of Andrew.

Mid atlantic TUTT is currently near -57W but on the wane.
It would not be a good time for a classic Cape Verde storm riding a westerly expanding ridge into Florida.

IIRC Andrews track in 1992 changed dramatically in the final hours before landfall, same thing with Charlie but how many times did we forget an apocalyptic forecast that turned into a model soap opera?

[Alyono]

So the models can't decide whether to initialize this near -28W or -22W yet and the GFS is parking a cat 4 or 5 Hurricane off the east coast of Florida in 10 days to give flashbacks of Andrew.

Mid atlantic TUTT is currently near -57W but on the wane.
It would not be a good time for a classic Cape Verde storm riding a westerly expanding ridge into Florida.

IIRC Andrews track in 1992 changed dramatically in the final hours before landfall, same thing with Charlie but how many times did we forget an apocalyptic forecast that turned into a model soap opera?

Andrew was moving on a 265-270 heading for the final 48 hours before it hit Florida. There was no last minute track change

[BobHarlem]

So the overnight Euro run still is further west into the Caribbean, faster, and weaker than the GFS. I still suspect the euro is closer to being correct.

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS misses Florida on this run.

[BobHarlem]

06z GFS is back to no landfall (gets pretty close to Hatteras and Cape Cod, but no landfall)

[otowntiger]

:uarrow: Yeah of course, which was just way too close for anyone's sanity here in Northeast Florida concerning Matthew. That is why Heaven forbid this from coming anywhere near coming to manifest please!! It was extremely nerve wrecking living through that scare here last October for 100% sure I can attest to that!!

Not just NE Florida, lol.

[otowntiger]

06z GFS is back to no landfall (gets pretty close to Hatteras and Cape Cod, but no landfall)

Sounds about right- will probably shift back and forth but the pattern of troughs are settling in just in time and I believe this system, especially if it develops significantly, will follow climo and stay out to sea- just my very early non professional take on it.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Yeah of course, which was just way too close for anyone's sanity here in Northeast Florida concerning Matthew. That is why Heaven forbid this from coming anywhere near coming to manifest please!! It was extremely nerve wrecking living through that scare here last October for 100% sure I can attest to that!!

Not just NE Florida, lol.

Yes You are right. Matthew sideswiped the entire Florida East Coast. I did not mean to exclude everyone else on the peninsula of course.

[tolakram]

Shear has really dropped over the last day or so, as noted above.

[tolakram]

GOES-16 SLIDER visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=20228&y=9053&z=4&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Sahara air analysis loop. I'm not seeing an overwhelming amount of dry air.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5new.html

[tolakram]

Here's the latest mid layer water vapor image. Looks pretty darn good compared to previous seasons.

[tolakram]

HWRF is a lot stronger latest run.

[cycloneye]

50%-80%

A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south and southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for this system to
consolidate and develop during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week while moving
west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

.

[weathaguyry]

Overall, I can say with confidence that for the last day or so in GFS runs, the storm has been WAY to close for comfort for us on Long Island, not a Sandy repeat, but still with a NE wind on an elevated high tide cycle, at 30-40 knots. That would not be good.

[Dean4Storms]

So my question seeing this would be why isn't this now designated as a TD???

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?product=mpsatwnd&storm_identifier=AL992017&product_filename=2017AL99_MPSATWND_201708040600

[pgoss11]

So my question seeing this would be why isn't this now designated as a TD???

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?product=mpsatwnd&storm_identifier=AL992017&product_filename=2017AL99_MPSATWND_201708040600

Possibly because of it's location far enough away from any land mass. I'm betting it will be declared by sometime tomorrow.

[wxman57]

I still think 90L has the better chance of developing over the next 5 days. This system may continue to struggle for the next 5-6 days. Perhaps a TD or weak TS, but the Caribbean system may well become a hurricane.

[wxman57]

So my question seeing this would be why isn't this now designated as a TD???

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?product=mpsatwnd&storm_identifier=AL992017&product_filename=2017AL99_MPSATWND_201708040600

Because it's not a depression. No organized convection around a well-defined center. Looks pretty pathetic, to me.

[Emmett_Brown]

The 6Z GFS initialized with a closed 1010mb low at about 9N, 28.2 W. So, according to the GFS, we basically have a TD as of 6z last night. Is this an indication that the GFS is getting ahead of itself and developing 99L too quickly?