ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

Other models are trending weaker so the GFS looks alone unless ECMWF follows it. New GFS has been notorious for overdoing intensity. Several members have pointed this out.

[Steve]

Canadian is quite a bit weaker, though not as weak as the UKMET

Yeah. And it's more heading on the northern side of WNW at 222. And GFS 937mb at 216 about to clobber the central Bahamas.

[SouthFLTropics]

This GFS run has Florida and points up the EC written all over it.

[PTrackerLA]

This GFS run has Florida and points up the EC written all over it.

Yeah it's not going to be pretty this run. The ridging is significantly stronger than the 18z run.

[bamajammer4eva]

Thats a strong Bermuda high!

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is so bad ...

[Sciencerocks]

00z probably 2 to 2.5 degrees to the west-southwest of the 18z. Very powerful.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=114

240 hours almost exactly 2 degrees further west. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=234

[Siker]

Looks like Matthew is coming for his revenge on Florida on this run...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Although this type of intensity is not likely, this type of track opens the door to anything.

[BobHarlem]

Really close to florida here.

[BobHarlem]

This really gets close to Cape Canaveral and rides just offshore and starts falling apart about the same place Matthew did. In fact the Florida proximity and shape of the storm is nearly identical to Matthew in the run.

[bamajammer4eva]

[Steve]

Ooo. It snags NE FL and then landfalls along the middle GA coast at 977mb which is patently wrong because it's in the upper 920's before it jumps up 50mb in 12 hours. Not a chance. It then goes up through GA/SC and is still about 150 miles west of the OBX probably still as a strong TS. GFS is trending bad.

[AtlanticWind]

Ooo. It snags NE FL and then landfalls along the middle GA coast at 977mb which is patently wrong because it's in the upper 920's before it jumps up 50mb in 12 hours. Not a chance. It then goes up through GA/SC and is still about 150 miles west of the OBX probably still as a strong TS. GFS is trending bad.

It goes inland in florida ,that why the pressure rises rapidly.

[grentz7721]

EEEKKKK!!! Now that gives me the creeps!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ooo. It snags NE FL and then landfalls along the middle GA coast at 977mb which is patently wrong because it's in the upper 920's before it jumps up 50mb in 12 hours. Not a chance. It then goes up through GA/SC and is still about 150 miles west of the OBX probably still as a strong TS. GFS is trending bad.

Just have to hope that track does not take place. Because if it does then it could create opportunities for future Franklin/Gert to do what Matthew thankfully did not to the SE COUS.

[Steve]

Also, every state pays in this GFS run. VA, DE, MD, D.C., NJ, PA, NY, CT, MA (well west of the Cape), NH and ME. That seems like a 30+ billion dollar storm. Crazy, but I'd still expect the GFS to trend farther west.

[Cpv17]

Would not be that surprised if this gets into the Gulf.

[Steve]

Ooo. It snags NE FL and then landfalls along the middle GA coast at 977mb which is patently wrong because it's in the upper 920's before it jumps up 50mb in 12 hours. Not a chance. It then goes up through GA/SC and is still about 150 miles west of the OBX probably still as a strong TS. GFS is trending bad.

It goes inland in florida ,that why the pressure rises rapidly.

I saw that. But it would still be wrong. Because insanely enough, it's deepening at 926mb at 240 and is 973 barely at the coast a bit north of Daytona at 252 hours which is only 12 later. And it's not like it's over mountains those 12 hours. That's already a very tough track, and as I've said, I think the GFS is almost always too far north and east in this range (10-10 1/2 days). IMHO, hectic days ahead for those of you in South Florida.

[Torgo]

After 240 hours, GFS goes to low resolution. That is why the pressure shot up.