ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I am also leaning with the ECMWF on the height fields and overall intensity forecast. I expect the GFS to back off on intensity in subsequent runs and shift its track more to the south. I am not buying the GFS one bit - not discounting it but just giving it a lot less weight. The upgraded GFS just hasn't performed that well and has shown it can overdo intensity by a lot.

[Hurricaneman]

Actually I think that the GFS might be closer on intensity but the Euro might be closer on track

[Kingarabian]

If conditions permit, the Euro could eventually show development as soon as 99L gets closer to the lesser Antilles as it did with Hermine 2016.

[Bocadude85]

I'd say the GFS showing a pass between Florida and Bermuda is probably more realistic. The easterlies have been weak here in South Florida the past 10 days due to several strong troughs, and going into mid-August when the easterlies start to break down further, that usually means anything coming at us from the east is more likely to move more northward around the western side of the ridge.

Frank

August 15th to October 31st is prime time for hurricane landfalls in Florida.

[Siker]

If conditions permit, the Euro could eventually show development as soon as 99L gets closer to the lesser Antilles as it did with Hermine 2016.

It's nice and eerie that Hermine was 99L also, and we also dealt with all models developing it besides the Euro in the MDR (after the Euro was the first to pick it up over Africa, for that matter). Issue then was also dry air.

[Steve]

we could see two hurr in one week

Season cancel!

Classic battle between ECMWF and GFS. This is one they've been raging for a long time. Truth is often in the middle, but otherwise more often then not, the EC is better.

[gatorcane]

looks like immediate development on the 18Z GFS.

[Hurricaneman]

looks like immediate development on the 18Z GFS.

Looking at satellite pics the GFS may not be far off

[Blown Away]

we could see two hurr in one week

Season cancel!

Classic battle between ECMWF and GFS. This is one they've been raging for a long time. Truth is often in the middle, but otherwise more often then not, the EC is better.

I know, perfect scenario, GFS says yes to 99L and no to 90L... Euro goes big with 90L and basically nada to 99L... Hard to go against the GOAT Euro...

[Kingarabian]

If conditions permit, the Euro could eventually show development as soon as 99L gets closer to the lesser Antilles as it did with Hermine 2016.

It's nice and eerie that Hermine was 99L also, and we also dealt with all models developing it besides the Euro in the MDR (after the Euro was the first to pick it up over Africa, for that matter). Issue then was also dry air.

Yeah they're strikingly similar the more you think about it. Let's see if conditions are better this time around.

[cycloneye]

A little more fast on 18z GFS.

[Siker]

If conditions permit, the Euro could eventually show development as soon as 99L gets closer to the lesser Antilles as it did with Hermine 2016.

It's nice and eerie that Hermine was 99L also, and we also dealt with all models developing it besides the Euro in the MDR (after the Euro was the first to pick it up over Africa, for that matter). Issue then was also dry air.

Yeah they're strikingly similar the more you think about it. Let's see if conditions are better this time around.

Euro is more bullish than for Hermine at least, when it showed barely a reflection of a wave all the way through the north Caribbean.

[Siker]

Most aggressive GFS run yet... 984mb by 84 hours.

[cycloneye]

975 mbs at 132 hours.

[Blown Away]

Trough looks deeper on 18z @126 hrs... Might be fishy again... Little faster and SW of 12z, going to be close...

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

If conditions permit, the Euro could eventually show development as soon as 99L gets closer to the lesser Antilles as it did with Hermine 2016.

It's nice and eerie that Hermine was 99L also, and we also dealt with all models developing it besides the Euro in the MDR (after the Euro was the first to pick it up over Africa, for that matter). Issue then was also dry air.

Will never forget that invest! The eerie thing about hermine was that during its invest phase as it entered bahamas the analog track was Katrina and would have taken the same exact track in the GOM if not for the sudden sharp curve into panhandle region

[cycloneye]

Too close for confort in the northern Leewards.

[weathaguyry]

Due west at 972mb at hour 162, a tick NE of 20N/60W

[cycloneye]

20n-60W in Hebert Box.

[SFLcane]

Hmm..gonna have to watch the 500mb very closely if this things develops.