Another GOM Disturbance

[Steve]

LMAO for sure. I couldn't tell, but I had to give him/her the benefit of the doubt.

[Sciencerocks]

Wow, it's hard to think that the next storm name would be Franklin, due to all of the season cancel posts.

Season reminds me of 2013..Lots of weak systems that deal with a lot of shear. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

Maybe we'll see a few short lived hurricanes later in the season like we had in 2013 too.

Troll job maybe, but would you like to put a wager on that?

nah, things change too quickly. How is stating the obvious that the storms appear to be 2013 like a troll job?

[Steve]

Maybe you don't keep up that much with forum. I recognize your name, but I don't know you well enough to know if you were screwing around. FWIW, there are lots of years with weaker tropical storms, 2013 no exception. But generally there were not that many this early. We don't have much ACE yet, but the chance of this season ending up anywhere near 2013 is approximately nil. If we end up with 14-2-0 and 30 whatever ACE there was (I'll go up to 50 to be more than fair), I'll donate $250 to the site in your name. You don't have to do anything. That's how confident I am we are not heading for 2013. Bets are off with a major volcanic eruption.

To answer the question, certain posters who I'm not looking to call out continuously reference that year. I'm not a psychologist, but absent autism or a really young poster (talking 12-13-14-15), for certain posters to continue to bring up that year in the face of what many experts and hardcore knowledgeable posters have presented as a counter is beyond outrageous. Obviously that's not you. So if you weren't trolling and seriously think that, I'd say put up some money. I don't want your money, but the site probably does. Here's a proposal:

Should we end up with fewer than 4 hurricanes and zero majors, I'll donate $250 to the site. If we get more than 4 hurricanes or 1 major, you demonstrate why at that particular time things aren't like 2013 on that date or quietly donate $50 to the site. This battle has been going on between people with agendas and those who presented science to counter since April when there actually were some similarities. Those are gone now.

[Ntxw]

Stay on topic

Lets avoid confronting each other's thoughts. It is fine to disagree but lets be respectful. It is fine to debate an idea but avoid unnecessary comments towards other posters. If there is something you deem problematic please report rather than engage.

Thanks!

[northjaxpro]

Latest surface analysis from NHC/WPC. 1012 mb Low Pressure area, sitting along the surface trough axis in the North-Central GOM, estimated near 27.0 87.0 W, about 225 miles due south of Pensacola.

[Nimbus]

Looks like there might be two areas in the gulf, a second vort further northeast steaming toward Destin this morning along with the other area over the central gulf.

[northjaxpro]

Shear has not let up. It really took its toll on the convection, which was trying to build near the LLC overnight. This Low Pressure area won't have a chance to get cranking until the shear relaxes, at least just a little bit. The vortex looks sick this morning.

[northjaxpro]

There may be another vort Nimbus. The initial, analyzed surface Low just looks sick currently. I am wondering if another vort, just a bit east-northeast, is trying to develop in place of the other discussed and analyzed.

[ronjon]

Appears another low pressure center is developing in the NE GOM about 50 miles SW of Perry FL based on RAD this am.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=tlh&loop=yes

[cycloneye]

1. Shower activity has decreased in association with a broad trough
of low pressure that extends from the central Gulf of Mexico
northeastward into Apalachee Bay. Development of this system is not
expected due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to dry air.
The trough is forecast to move slowly northward or northeastward
and weaken over the southeastern United States through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2..

[marionstorm]

Appears another low pressure center is developing in the NE GOM about 50 miles SW of Perry FL based on RAD this am.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=tlh&loop=yes

Doesn't seem to be moving much either.

[Steve]

Appears another low pressure center is developing in the NE GOM about 50 miles SW of Perry FL based on RAD this am.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=tlh&loop=yes

Looks a lot like the NAM and CMC said it would today. It looks to stay trough-y over toward the Panhandle and Big Bend for the next 4 or so days though nothing of note perks up in either of those models in this area.

[Emmett_Brown]

Increase in convection, last ditch attempt to organize?

[northjaxpro]

I guess it is trying. We will see if the convection can sustain for awhile. The shear simply has not allowed for that to happen to this point.

[ronjon]

Explosion of convection in NE GOM this morning. We've seen close to 4 inches of rain in western Hernando County today. Hard to tell if weak low pressure under the convection - most likely. Almost appears to be a TD now.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=tpa&type=vis

[Steve]

Explosion of convection in NE GOM this morning. We've seen close to 4 inches of rain in western Hernando County today. Hard to tell if weak low pressure under the convection - most likely. Almost appears to be a TD now.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=tpa&type=vis

You've got a lot more coming. I haven't looked at the QPF in a while, but it has been underdone in every tropical event affecting the continent this year so far.

Yep. Way underdone. You've tripled the amount today that you were supposed to get the next 7 per 12z GFS.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1501695680

[BobHarlem]

No mention in the 2PM Outlook.

[stormreader]

Maybe you don't keep up that much with forum. I recognize your name, but I don't know you well enough to know if you were screwing around. FWIW, there are lots of years with weaker tropical storms, 2013 no exception. But generally there were not that many this early. We don't have much ACE yet, but the chance of this season ending up anywhere near 2013 is approximately nil. If we end up with 14-2-0 and 30 whatever ACE there was (I'll go up to 50 to be more than fair), I'll donate $250 to the site in your name. You don't have to do anything. That's how confident I am we are not heading for 2013. Bets are off with a major volcanic eruption.

To answer the question, certain posters who I'm not looking to call out continuously reference that year. I'm not a psychologist, but absent autism or a really young poster (talking 12-13-14-15), for certain posters to continue to bring up that year in the face of what many experts and hardcore knowledgeable posters have presented as a counter is beyond outrageous. Obviously that's not you. So if you weren't trolling and seriously think that, I'd say put up some money. I don't want your money, but the site probably does. Here's a proposal:

Should we end up with fewer than 4 hurricanes and zero majors, I'll donate $250 to the site. If we get more than 4 hurricanes or 1 major, you demonstrate why at that particular time things aren't like 2013 on that date or quietly donate $50 to the site. This battle has been going on between people with agendas and those who presented science to counter since April when there actually were some similarities. Those are gone now.

Enjoyed your post. Found your qualifier very interesting (major volcanic eruption). Made me wonder if there was something I should know (rumblings at Yellowstone etc..lol.

[northjaxpro]

We are getting drenched here in Jax area. I just picked up just over 2.5 inches to this point this afternoon at my weather station and NWS Jax has issued a Flash Flood Warning for Downtown Jax.

[Steve]

Maybe you don't keep up that much with forum. I recognize your name, but I don't know you well enough to know if you were screwing around. FWIW, there are lots of years with weaker tropical storms, 2013 no exception. But generally there were not that many this early. We don't have much ACE yet, but the chance of this season ending up anywhere near 2013 is approximately nil. If we end up with 14-2-0 and 30 whatever ACE there was (I'll go up to 50 to be more than fair), I'll donate $250 to the site in your name. You don't have to do anything. That's how confident I am we are not heading for 2013. Bets are off with a major volcanic eruption.

To answer the question, certain posters who I'm not looking to call out continuously reference that year. I'm not a psychologist, but absent autism or a really young poster (talking 12-13-14-15), for certain posters to continue to bring up that year in the face of what many experts and hardcore knowledgeable posters have presented as a counter is beyond outrageous. Obviously that's not you. So if you weren't trolling and seriously think that, I'd say put up some money. I don't want your money, but the site probably does. Here's a proposal:

Should we end up with fewer than 4 hurricanes and zero majors, I'll donate $250 to the site. If we get more than 4 hurricanes or 1 major, you demonstrate why at that particular time things aren't like 2013 on that date or quietly donate $50 to the site. This battle has been going on between people with agendas and those who presented science to counter since April when there actually were some similarities. Those are gone now.

Enjoyed your post. Found your qualifier very interesting (major volcanic eruption). Made me wonder if there was something I should know (rumblings at Yellowstone etc..lol.

Haha no. There are some theories (not conspiracy ones at least) out there that seem to correlate large scale volcanic eruptions with I guess you would call suppressed vertical lift and less radiational heating. They may even tie into El Ninos once in a while though 2007 was so raging El Nino that whether or not any of the eruptions led to a decline in hurricane activity is hard to say (Batu Tara or any of the others that year). I keep that as a caveat in a bet, because I don't think anyone understands the correlation yet nor the true tie ins between hurricane activity and solar cycles.