Another GOM Disturbance

[Dean4Storms]

No mention at 2pm. NHC is not impressed.

They were not impressed with Emily beforehand either.....

[Dean4Storms]

Is that a naked eye like swirl emerging at the north edge of convection?

[AJC3]

You can see the convection vomiting out a small eddy near 26.5N 87.8W. Pretty harsh N-NE shear over that area.

[AJC3]

Is that a naked eye like swirl emerging at the north edge of convection?

Yup. Spinning like a top when you rapidly loop the G-16 vis imagery.

In fact, if you look very closely, it's pulling along a very small, but persistent convective plume, to the SE of the center, that's sheared pretty badly toward the SSW.

[stormreader]

Would this move Eastward along the front like Emily did or with the front expected to retreat Northward, could it affect people further north?

That's the question. I don't see much movement in the area at this point. If this system does persist it may have detached from the old frontal flow (ENE). Thus a normal climo scenario might mean a NW or NNW movement for a system organizing in that location. Let's just see if it persists.

[Steve]

Would this move Eastward along the front like Emily did or with the front expected to retreat Northward, could it affect people further north?

That's the question. I don't see much movement in the area at this point. If this system does persist it may have detached from the old frontal flow (ENE). Thus a normal climo scenario might mean a NW or NNW movement for a system organizing in that location. Let's just see if it persists.

There is a large upper low over the Great Lakes in a couple of days that will bring another boundary down that will probably wash out. Still there will be SW winds that should start cranking ahead of it. I can only see ENE or E toward Florida if that upper low ends up as forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

Well, its probably worth a mention by the NHC. The shear is high but that hasn't stopped many many systems from forming in the gulf. It clearly has a circ. though that eddy is not very expansive compared to the overall broad turning around it and the eddy might not be to the surface as there is some differential motions in the lower cloud deck from the eddy. . just like with anything else convection needs to keep refiring especially in these sheared environments to get development despite the "technical" argument that it meets the requirements.

[TheStormExpert]

Hopefully we get a mention @ 8pm. Probably just waiting to see how it holds up for another six hours.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, Steve, that is correct. Whatever comes of this next disturbance in the GOM will likely follow in Emily's footsteps on a E-NE direction as another trough comes down into the Eastern U.S. by the end of this week.

[Stormcenter]

Not that cut and dry as to potential movement of this possible system.....timing is everything. IMO

:uarrow:

Yes, Steve, that is correct. Whatever comes of this next disturbance in the GOM will likely follow in Emily's footsteps on a E-NE direction as another trough comes down into the Eastern U.S. by the end of this week.

[TexWx]

I just wonder, if this does begin to wrap up a little, how much moisture this pulls away from Texas.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm starting to doubt it wins the battle with the lower and mid level dry air.

[Stormcenter]

You could be right.

I'm starting to doubt it wins the battle with the lower and mid level dry air.

[CFLHurricane]

The Gulf giveth and The Gulf taketh away!

[Nimbus]

Hopefully the dry air and shear will continue.
We saw how quickly Emily spun up and the middle of the gulf would not be a good place for a repeat performance.

No low surface pressure recordings from the buoys currently.
Mid gulf buoy reported a 1013 mb low with the background about 1024 mb earlier. Might have just been the thunderstorms we are watching.

[northjaxpro]

Not that cut and dry as to potential movement of this possible system.....timing is everything. IMO

:uarrow:

Yes, Steve, that is correct. Whatever comes of this next disturbance in the GOM will likely follow in Emily's footsteps on a E-NE direction as another trough comes down into the Eastern U.S. by the end of this week.

This is true. Nothing in weather is completely cut and dry. We do not have another established Low Pressure initialized just yet as well. We wait and see what materializes.

[Emmett_Brown]

Emily had way more shear and dry air to contend with, but she was also partially subtropical, so there were other forcing mechanisms to get her spinning. Never the less, there is still some turning and convergence with our new blob, so it might still go. 12Z CMC 850 mb forecast shows a decent vort forming soon and moving into the big bend of FL

[Steve]

Not that cut and dry as to potential movement of this possible system.....timing is everything. IMO

:uarrow:

Yes, Steve, that is correct. Whatever comes of this next disturbance in the GOM will likely follow in Emily's footsteps on a E-NE direction as another trough comes down into the Eastern U.S. by the end of this week.

I do agree there are some alternative scenarios. The ones I see are a piece hangs back west and rains in SE TX; a piece moves NE into South Central LA ahead of the front or something does follow Emily (sort of) toward NE FL. Obviously it could be nothing because the mesoscales never show anything strong and just show sort of jumping low pressure. So maybe there are different micro-areas that could have temporary spin ups.

[Dean4Storms]

Emily had way more shear and dry air to contend with, but she was also partially subtropical, so there were other forcing mechanisms to get her spinning. Never the less, there is still some turning and convergence with our new blob, so it might still go. 12Z CMC 850 mb forecast shows a decent vort forming soon and moving into the big bend of FL

But Emily was racing SSE away from the dry air into plentiful moisture where this is not, big difference!

[Dean4Storms]

Well that has pretty much disintegrated!