Another GOM Disturbance

[Patrick99]

Some decent little blob-watching right now. I see the GOM disturbance, there's also something going on in the SE Bahamas. Probably nothing, but in August you watch these blobs.

[Steve]

I agree it looks intriguing but the shear is keeping it in check for now and by the time the shear settles down it probably will be inland according to the models. I don't see one model that develops it either probably for those reasons.

You have to go to the mesoscale models. Like I said last night, I expect 1 or 2 lows to just pulse the next few days as the next front swings down. This should activate a lot of rain and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf that should move in ahead of the front.

[marionstorm]

There is a LLC here because of the west wind at the nearby buoy and the appearance of low level cirrus on visible satellite, right?

[Dean4Storms]

There is a LLC here because of the west wind at the nearby buoy and the appearance of low level cirrus on visible satellite, right?

Not necessarily, there is the old front sitting there with winds south of that boundary from the West. Cirrus clouds are high level, I think you meant cumulus. Don't see any rapid pressure falls with that buoy for now but if the convection persists there all day we could see a change starting later this afternoon or tonight especially if shear drops off a little.

[tropicwatch]

Somewhat of a surprising change with the upper level wind shear above this disturbance.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, shear tendency is decreasing over it and NNE toward the Panhandle. I'd give it a 20% chance at this point.

[Stormcenter]

Bears watching

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-24-1

[wxman57]

Weak low is present. Would agree with 20% chance of development. Surprised Stacy Stewart didn't mention it in the outlook, given what we just went through with Emily. Not much model support, but we have to keep a close eye on ANY such features in August/September.

[northjaxpro]

Been watching this area on the old boundary since yesterday. It looks very intriguing today.

This area definitely needs to bear watching.

[TheStormExpert]

This might have a better shot at becoming more organized than Emily did if shear drops off enough for some time.

[Dean4Storms]

From a satellite perspective I guess the biggest thing to watch for is the surface outflows racing northward out of the convection to cease. If that stops this could mean a northerly wind.

[gatorcane]

I would be shocked if NHC doesn't mention this in the next outlook at 2pm est. Could be quickly tagged an invest also.

[marionstorm]

I would be shocked if NHC doesn't mention this in the next outlook at 2pm est. Could be quickly tagged an invest also.

I agree. Persistence is key and they were probably waiting to see if it'd go poof. Since there is less shear over this system than Emily had I imagine we'll see a blow up in convection tonight.

[northjaxpro]

Convection already perculating . If I would not think. any better, it sure looks like a developing vortex to me for sure.

I would be really shocked if this did not get some mention from NHC on their 2:00 TWO coming up shortly .

[Steve]

12Z CMC is a little further East than the mesoscale models and develops the low right at landfall in about 24 hours. It hooks it right and heads up toward Cedar Key basically following the alleyway of Emily. I don't know if this is right, or maybe if there is just a tropical surge of moisture.

NAM 12km agrees with CMC to a point, but it's about 4-6 hours slower and farther north toward Apalachicola. Its 3km model really doesn't develop that low but instead has generally lower pressure off the SW LA Coast moving the storms ENE up toward the NE Gulf. This looks like whatever is down there just moves up and out ahead of the front.

[gatorcane]

saved loop:

[northjaxpro]

This feature looks invest worthy to me already. It has really increased in organization and convection. Shear right now appears to have dropped off considerably over this feature on the old decaying frontal boundary since yesterday.

This system may have for the time being found a somewhat more conducive environment for development. Definitely better than what Emily had as it appears at this time.

[bamajammer4eva]

Would this move Eastward along the front like Emily did or with the front expected to retreat Northward, could it affect people further north?

[RL3AO]

No mention at 2pm. NHC is not impressed.

[Stormcenter]

Oh well, nothing the NHC does or does not do these days surprises me.

No mention at 2pm. NHC is not impressed.