![Image](http://i.imgur.com/cRKBChx.jpg)
WDPN34 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NESAT) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION, WHICH HAS BECOME MORE
CONSOLIDATED AND MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DUE TO THE
LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURTING THE
CENTER, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 11W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 12 AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS TAIWAN. AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, TY 11W WILL
MAKE ITS SECOND LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 36 AND WILL
TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU
72 AND TAU 96. OVERALL, GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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