#6 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 27, 2017 6:30 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.5N 173.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 174.6E, APPROXIMATELY
530 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270227Z SSMIS 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
MOSTLY EXPOSED SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL DUE
TO THE UNIQUE NATURE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING ABOVE THE
SYSTEM WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
CURRENTLY, DRY AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD,
ELONGATED, AND EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
262232Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A PATCH OF 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS DEPICTED SOUTHEAST OF
THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A HIGH-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT (20-30 KNOTS), BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST. AT THIS TIME,
THE DISTURBANCE HAS GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK NORTH, SOUTH OF A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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