#14 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:20 pm
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.1N 178.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 327 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD, ELONGATED, AND EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC, WITH
REFORMATION OF THE LLCC LIKELY AS THE WARM CORE BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A HIGH-SHEAR, BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE SYSTEM TO
TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ONCE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DECOUPLES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AT THIS TIME, THE
DISTURBANCE HAS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST, WITH MODERATE (20-25KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C).
THE DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
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