ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion
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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Is recon flying this afternoon?
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
its still DON per NHC recon probably left for other reason.. hopefully they tell us in discussion
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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
40mph and 1011mb at 11AM from the NHC
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Does not mention why recon left. they never sampled the west or SW side. if they trully wanted to know if it had opened up to a wave they would have kept the first plane out there for the duration not send another plane later. That is a waste.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 18 2017
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the tropical storm has weakened this morning. The
highest flight-level and SFMR observations support an intensity of
30-35 kt and the data also show that the circulation has become
less defined and in fact it may lack a closed surface circulation.
Advisories are being maintained for now pending another
reconnaissance aircraft mission later today.
Increasing westerly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to
continue to weaken the tropical cyclone as it moves through the
Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean during the next day or
so. The NHC forecast calls for Don to weaken to a tropical
depression in about 24 hours and degenerate into a an open wave
within 36 hours. This could occur much sooner than indicated below.
The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Don should continue
to move quickly westward within the strong trade wind flow until
dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and is near the model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 11.5N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.7N 60.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 12.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 18 2017
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the tropical storm has weakened this morning. The
highest flight-level and SFMR observations support an intensity of
30-35 kt and the data also show that the circulation has become
less defined and in fact it may lack a closed surface circulation.
Advisories are being maintained for now pending another
reconnaissance aircraft mission later today.
Increasing westerly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to
continue to weaken the tropical cyclone as it moves through the
Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean during the next day or
so. The NHC forecast calls for Don to weaken to a tropical
depression in about 24 hours and degenerate into a an open wave
within 36 hours. This could occur much sooner than indicated below.
The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Don should continue
to move quickly westward within the strong trade wind flow until
dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and is near the model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 11.5N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.7N 60.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 12.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Another weak, short lived TC bites the dust.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Suppose the name "Don" will continue to be used for incredibly short lived tropical storms.
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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
What time does recon go out this afternoon?
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Suppose the name "Don" will continue to be used for incredibly short lived tropical storms.
We will see if the "bad" Emily trend continues this season. This is the cycle she makes that retirement run (poor thing shes tried to retire for 18 years now )
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Suppose the name "Don" will continue to be used for incredibly short lived tropical storms.
We will see if the "bad" Emily trend continues this season. This is the cycle she makes that retirement run (poor thing shes tried to retire for 18 years now )
more like 30 years. Could no even get retired after approaching Hispaniola as a strong cat 3
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 58.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 58.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
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- HurricaneBrain
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
I can't be the only one pulling for Don to stay alive just until Hilary forms in the EPac
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
There we have west winds. the other observation on the island has not updated in a long time. Two reporting stations showing west winds.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
doesn't look healthy and understand why the models never picked up on it. Peaked yesterday....next
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Aric Dunn wrote:There we have west winds. the other observation on the island has not updated in a long time. Two reporting stations showing west winds.
https://image.ibb.co/bN1L9k/596e56af_ad2_4d.png
Those west winds are too far away to be considered within Don's circulation. They could be driven by local effects (sea breeze). Don is clearly an open wave now, as the NHC alluded to in their discussion. They didn't want to "call it" until another recon checked it out later today.
However, Bones is ready to call it now...
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
wxman57 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:There we have west winds. the other observation on the island has not updated in a long time. Two reporting stations showing west winds.
https://image.ibb.co/bN1L9k/596e56af_ad2_4d.png
Those west winds are too far away to be considered within Don's circulation. They could be driven by local effects (sea breeze). Don is clearly an open wave now, as the NHC alluded to in their discussion. They didn't want to "call it" until another recon checked it out later today.
However, Bones is ready to call it now...
[img]http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg[/ig]
To far outside the circulation.. ? The likely location of the center assuming it is there is passing just to the north of Tobago it is plenty close enough to the radar site and to the observation site.... It is pretty sraight forward ..
http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
I have a t-storm to my south is bigger than this..lol with 60mph winds no less. I think the NHC was being generous.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
HurricaneBrain wrote:I can't be the only one pulling for Don to stay alive just until Hilary forms in the EPac
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
From my own eyes, if there is a center than I think its further south than anyone is looking, probably to move SOUTH of Tobago and to pass directly over Trinidad
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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