ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: DON - Models

#241 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:Seems like the ECMWF essentially missed this system.

It was initializing Cat.4 Fernanda @ 999mb. GFS is superior in these cases.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#242 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:24 pm

Recon is having fun. The center is bouncing around becasue of that convection that just built up.

couple 45kt winds. though flagged but seem reasonable.

210230 1114N 05236W 9766 00302 0106 +236 +219 168043 045 041 000 03
210300 1114N 05235W 9771 00300 0109 +241 +209 176040 045 044 000 03
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Re: ATL: DON - Models

#243 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:25 pm

GFS PARA was the #! model for this one.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#244 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:28 pm

leanne_uk wrote:Could anyone let me know what the outlook is for Grenada.... I believe it's now under a storm warning but just need a bit more info as my mother in law is in the middle of repair works on the house. Definately not what you need when the house ain't right.
Thanks in advance.


Well your likely far enough north to not get the center near you.. though you will probably get higher winds with the SAL surge than the storm itself. assuming it does not strengthen much the wind field is very small.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#245 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:29 pm

Well sometimes storms can creep up on you. This is a perfect example of that.
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Re: ATL: DON - Models

#246 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:29 pm

gatorcane wrote:Seems like the ECMWF essentially missed this system.


For once, the ECMWF seems to be struggling a lot recently. It's back to missing random stuff in the deep tropics.
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Re: ATL: DON - Recon

#247 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:33 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172130
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 41 20170717
212000 1126N 05253W 8430 01593 //// +162 //// 075032 032 024 000 01
212030 1124N 05253W 8429 01596 //// +164 //// 077035 036 025 000 01
212100 1123N 05252W 8432 01588 //// +164 //// 080038 039 029 000 05
212130 1121N 05252W 8426 01597 //// +157 //// 079036 039 030 001 01
212200 1120N 05252W 8428 01586 //// +151 //// 074035 036 031 002 01
212230 1118N 05251W 8430 01585 //// +159 //// 066037 038 036 001 01
212300 1116N 05251W 8423 01588 //// +163 //// 065036 039 039 002 01
212330 1115N 05250W 8424 01580 0106 +165 +164 059032 037 040 006 03
212400 1113N 05250W 8431 01570 0105 +166 //// 052025 030 039 020 05
212430 1112N 05249W 8421 01576 0114 +150 //// 048003 020 /// /// 05
212500 1111N 05247W 8428 01575 0120 +165 //// 208026 037 /// /// 05
212530 1110N 05246W 8426 01587 0140 +164 +164 183037 041 /// /// 03
212600 1110N 05245W 8434 01588 0121 +175 +158 168039 042 040 005 00
212630 1109N 05243W 8418 01608 0122 +175 +159 166033 037 036 000 00
212700 1109N 05242W 8442 01583 0122 +180 +161 146029 029 034 000 00
212730 1108N 05241W 8431 01604 0127 +179 +160 149025 028 032 001 03
212800 1106N 05241W 8427 01603 0128 +177 +146 161023 026 031 000 00
212830 1105N 05242W 8424 01608 0127 +178 +141 163019 024 030 000 00
212900 1103N 05242W 8430 01601 0127 +179 +137 158018 019 029 000 00
212930 1102N 05242W 8416 01611 0127 +177 +137 161015 019 027 000 00
$$

42 knot flight level with 40 knot smrf
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Re: ATL: DON - Models

#248 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:33 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Seems like the ECMWF essentially missed this system.


For once, the ECMWF seems to be struggling a lot recently. It's back to missing random stuff in the deep tropics.


Interestingly prediction wise, its on fire on the EPac.

I think its because of its seasonal forecast showing higher pressures in the Atlantic thus shutting down development.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#249 Postby Siker » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:37 pm

Real nice blowup directly over the center right now.
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Re: ATL: DON - Models

#250 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:37 pm

It will weaken quickly
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#251 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Recon is having fun. The center is bouncing around becasue of that convection that just built up.

couple 45kt winds. though flagged but seem reasonable.

210230 1114N 05236W 9766 00302 0106 +236 +219 168043 045 041 000 03
210300 1114N 05235W 9771 00300 0109 +241 +209 176040 045 044 000 03


Agreed, that suggests 45 kt is reasonable.
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Re: ATL: DON - Recon

#252 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:41 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172140
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 42 20170717
213000 1100N 05242W 8432 01599 0127 +178 +135 155015 015 026 000 00
213030 1059N 05242W 8429 01600 0129 +175 +136 159013 015 023 000 00
213100 1057N 05243W 8429 01601 0130 +173 +138 172010 012 023 000 00
213130 1056N 05243W 8430 01599 0130 +171 +140 185008 010 021 000 00
213200 1054N 05243W 8429 01601 0131 +169 +142 193008 009 021 000 03
213230 1052N 05243W 8429 01602 0135 +165 +142 205005 008 021 000 03
213300 1051N 05243W 8432 01600 0135 +165 +143 203005 006 020 000 00
213330 1049N 05244W 8430 01601 0135 +165 +140 206006 006 020 000 00
213400 1048N 05244W 8428 01602 0136 +163 +139 223008 010 018 000 00
213430 1046N 05244W 8429 01600 0138 +160 +135 223010 010 018 000 00
213500 1046N 05244W 8429 01600 0137 +163 +133 223009 010 017 000 00
213530 1043N 05244W 8429 01601 0137 +165 +129 220010 010 016 000 00
213600 1042N 05245W 8430 01599 0135 +165 +132 217009 010 014 000 00
213630 1040N 05245W 8429 01601 0136 +165 +135 225010 010 014 000 00
213700 1038N 05245W 8429 01602 0135 +165 +136 231011 012 014 000 00
213730 1037N 05245W 8428 01603 0136 +165 +137 231012 012 013 000 00
213800 1035N 05245W 8430 01600 0135 +165 +136 232012 013 013 000 00
213830 1034N 05246W 8429 01601 0136 +164 +139 236013 013 013 000 00
213900 1032N 05246W 8429 01603 0137 +165 +137 237014 015 013 000 00
213930 1031N 05246W 8430 01600 0137 +165 +131 236015 015 013 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: DON - Recon

#253 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:51 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172150
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 43 20170717
214000 1029N 05246W 8430 01600 0137 +165 +127 236015 015 011 000 00
214030 1028N 05246W 8429 01600 0138 +165 +123 235013 014 012 000 03
214100 1026N 05247W 8429 01601 0137 +165 +129 235013 013 012 000 00
214130 1024N 05247W 8428 01602 0137 +165 +136 236014 014 013 000 00
214200 1023N 05247W 8430 01600 0138 +162 +139 240014 014 013 000 00
214230 1021N 05247W 8429 01602 0140 +160 +136 239013 014 012 000 00
214300 1020N 05247W 8430 01601 0140 +160 +136 233013 014 014 000 03
214330 1018N 05248W 8429 01604 0138 +164 +133 232011 012 012 000 00
214400 1017N 05248W 8430 01601 0138 +165 +133 235009 010 012 000 00
214430 1015N 05248W 8430 01602 0139 +165 +130 235010 010 013 000 00
214500 1014N 05248W 8430 01603 0142 +164 +131 236010 012 012 000 03
214530 1012N 05247W 8424 01612 0143 +161 +131 235012 013 /// /// 03
214600 1013N 05246W 8427 01609 0141 +164 +133 223009 012 011 000 03
214630 1015N 05245W 8429 01603 0139 +165 +130 211009 009 013 000 00
214700 1016N 05245W 8429 01605 0139 +166 +130 210010 010 013 000 03
214730 1018N 05244W 8431 01603 0140 +165 +131 215010 010 013 000 00
214800 1019N 05243W 8429 01604 0140 +163 +133 215010 010 013 000 00
214830 1021N 05242W 8432 01603 0141 +162 +134 203008 009 015 000 00
214900 1022N 05240W 8429 01606 0141 +164 +129 210007 007 015 000 03
214930 1023N 05239W 8430 01605 0142 +164 +128 221009 009 014 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: DON - Recon

#254 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:01 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172200
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 44 20170717
215000 1025N 05238W 8432 01603 0142 +162 +135 210009 010 013 000 03
215030 1026N 05237W 8432 01604 0142 +165 +134 200010 011 013 000 03
215100 1027N 05236W 8428 01607 0141 +165 +133 196011 012 013 000 00
215130 1029N 05235W 8429 01605 0141 +165 +134 193013 014 014 000 00
215200 1030N 05234W 8429 01604 0142 +165 +134 193015 015 013 001 00
215230 1032N 05233W 8430 01605 0142 +165 +131 193015 016 013 000 00
215300 1033N 05232W 8429 01607 0142 +165 +130 193016 016 013 000 00
215330 1034N 05231W 8430 01605 0143 +165 +131 195016 016 014 000 00
215400 1036N 05230W 8430 01607 0143 +165 +132 192017 017 015 000 00
215430 1037N 05229W 8429 01606 0143 +165 +132 193016 017 015 000 00
215500 1039N 05228W 8430 01605 0143 +165 +133 190017 017 015 000 00
215530 1040N 05227W 8429 01605 0144 +165 +133 183017 017 015 000 00
215600 1041N 05226W 8429 01608 0144 +166 +132 179019 020 015 000 00
215630 1043N 05225W 8429 01608 0142 +170 +132 175018 019 017 000 00
215700 1044N 05224W 8429 01609 0142 +170 +133 174018 019 016 000 00
215730 1046N 05223W 8430 01607 0143 +166 +133 173019 019 015 000 00
215800 1047N 05221W 8426 01610 0143 +169 +130 162020 020 016 000 00
215830 1048N 05220W 8433 01607 0144 +170 +124 157021 022 017 000 00
215900 1050N 05219W 8429 01611 0144 +170 +120 154022 023 019 000 00
215930 1051N 05218W 8430 01610 0146 +170 +117 155023 023 018 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#255 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:05 pm

The interesting thing to watch will be the 00z model runs to see what they do now that there is a lot more data. Those models that have not showed much at all will likely come around.
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Re: ATL: DON - Recon

#256 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:11 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172210
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 45 20170717
220000 1053N 05217W 8433 01607 0146 +170 +120 155022 022 016 000 00
220030 1054N 05216W 8429 01611 0146 +167 +122 155022 022 015 000 00
220100 1055N 05215W 8430 01612 0149 +165 +129 157020 021 014 000 00
220130 1057N 05214W 8429 01611 0150 +162 +134 158020 020 014 000 00
220200 1058N 05213W 8430 01609 0152 +160 +136 157019 020 015 000 00
220230 1059N 05212W 8429 01611 0152 +160 +137 156019 019 015 000 00
220300 1101N 05211W 8431 01610 0149 +163 +129 151021 022 015 000 00
220330 1102N 05210W 8429 01611 0149 +164 +133 148021 022 015 000 00
220400 1103N 05209W 8432 01613 0149 +165 +133 143020 021 015 000 00
220430 1105N 05208W 8429 01613 0150 +164 +132 144020 021 014 000 00
220500 1106N 05207W 8430 01612 0153 +160 +134 147020 020 014 000 00
220530 1107N 05206W 8430 01614 0151 +163 +132 146019 020 011 000 00
220600 1109N 05205W 8428 01614 0151 +163 +132 148019 019 012 000 00
220630 1110N 05204W 8430 01612 0151 +165 +131 148019 020 012 000 00
220700 1111N 05203W 8430 01610 0150 +165 +135 148020 020 011 000 00
220730 1113N 05202W 8430 01614 0150 +169 +129 147021 021 011 000 03
220800 1114N 05201W 8418 01629 0156 +171 +125 139022 022 /// /// 03
220830 1115N 05203W 8429 01616 0149 +175 +125 140020 021 008 001 00
220900 1115N 05204W 8432 01611 0150 +168 +130 138019 020 011 000 00
220930 1115N 05206W 8430 01613 0152 +165 +133 140018 019 011 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: DON - Recon

#257 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:22 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172220
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 46 20170717
221000 1115N 05208W 8429 01614 0153 +160 +136 143018 018 012 000 03
221030 1115N 05210W 8429 01614 0155 +157 +139 143018 019 010 000 00
221100 1115N 05211W 8429 01617 0157 +154 +142 142019 020 013 000 00
221130 1115N 05213W 8430 01612 0157 +155 +141 144021 021 012 001 00
221200 1115N 05215W 8429 01614 0157 +155 +140 144022 023 013 000 00
221230 1115N 05217W 8430 01615 0158 +155 +137 142023 023 012 000 00
221300 1115N 05218W 8426 01616 0156 +157 +136 141022 022 013 000 00
221330 1114N 05220W 8432 01610 0155 +160 +133 140023 023 014 000 00
221400 1114N 05222W 8433 01612 0153 +160 +132 140023 023 013 000 00
221430 1113N 05223W 8429 01613 0151 +163 +133 139023 024 014 000 00
221500 1113N 05225W 8429 01612 0150 +165 +131 140023 023 013 000 00
221530 1112N 05227W 8433 01609 0150 +165 +129 138023 023 015 000 00
221600 1112N 05228W 8428 01614 0148 +165 +126 134023 024 015 000 00
221630 1111N 05230W 8429 01609 0145 +169 +125 133024 025 015 000 00
221700 1111N 05232W 8429 01610 0145 +170 +124 133024 025 017 000 00
221730 1110N 05233W 8430 01608 0145 +171 +123 135025 025 017 000 00
221800 1110N 05235W 8432 01611 0142 +175 +122 137026 026 018 000 00
221830 1109N 05237W 8429 01613 0143 +175 +118 135026 026 019 000 00
221900 1109N 05238W 8429 01610 0140 +175 +114 134025 026 018 000 00
221930 1108N 05240W 8432 01610 0140 +175 +120 137025 025 019 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: DON - Recon

#258 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:31 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172230
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 47 20170717
222000 1107N 05241W 8433 01607 0140 +175 +126 142023 025 020 000 00
222030 1106N 05243W 8426 01613 0139 +175 +128 144023 024 021 000 00
222100 1105N 05244W 8433 01605 0137 +177 +128 142023 024 021 000 00
222130 1104N 05245W 8426 01611 0135 +178 +128 139021 022 020 000 00
222200 1103N 05247W 8431 01603 0135 +178 +130 139019 021 020 000 00
222230 1102N 05248W 8433 01603 0136 +175 +134 135016 018 018 000 00
222300 1101N 05249W 8427 01608 0136 +175 +135 131014 016 019 000 00
222330 1100N 05251W 8430 01607 0136 +175 +137 128012 014 019 000 00
222400 1059N 05252W 8431 01604 0135 +175 +136 131011 012 019 000 00
222430 1058N 05253W 8430 01607 0136 +175 +136 146010 010 018 000 03
222500 1057N 05254W 8426 01607 0135 +175 +135 149009 010 017 001 03
222530 1056N 05255W 8428 01607 0134 +175 +135 151007 009 017 000 00
222600 1055N 05257W 8433 01602 0133 +175 +136 141004 007 016 000 00
222630 1054N 05258W 8429 01605 0135 +172 +139 354001 003 017 000 00
222700 1053N 05300W 8427 01607 0140 +163 +140 313005 006 016 000 00
222730 1052N 05301W 8432 01603 0142 +160 +142 295006 006 014 000 00
222800 1051N 05302W 8429 01604 0144 +158 +142 276007 008 014 000 03
222830 1051N 05302W 8429 01604 0145 +156 +141 268007 008 014 000 00
222900 1051N 05305W 8434 01598 0144 +158 +141 267006 007 014 000 00
222930 1051N 05307W 8429 01603 0144 +156 +141 280006 006 014 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#259 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:33 pm

Siker wrote:Real nice blowup directly over the center right now.



Yep!

Image
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Re: ATL: DON - Recon

#260 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:41 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172240
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 48 20170717
223000 1051N 05309W 8429 01605 0144 +155 +141 292005 006 015 000 00
223030 1051N 05310W 8429 01604 0145 +155 +142 325006 007 014 000 00
223100 1051N 05312W 8428 01604 0143 +155 +145 331008 009 014 000 00
223130 1051N 05313W 8434 01597 0141 +155 +146 334009 009 013 000 00
223200 1051N 05315W 8430 01601 0143 +155 +145 332009 009 014 000 00
223230 1051N 05317W 8428 01603 0143 +152 +146 341008 009 014 000 00
223300 1051N 05318W 8432 01597 0141 +155 +148 354009 009 013 000 00
223330 1051N 05320W 8429 01601 0140 +157 +145 001010 011 014 000 00
223400 1052N 05322W 8430 01600 0138 +159 +145 003010 011 014 000 00
223430 1052N 05323W 8429 01599 0137 +160 +144 007011 012 016 000 00
223500 1052N 05325W 8429 01601 0136 +160 +142 012012 013 019 000 00
223530 1052N 05327W 8433 01592 0133 +160 +141 011013 014 019 000 00
223600 1052N 05328W 8426 01596 0130 +161 +140 012013 013 021 001 00
223630 1052N 05330W 8429 01601 0137 +161 +139 013014 014 023 001 00
223700 1052N 05331W 8429 01601 0141 +154 +139 015014 014 023 003 00
223730 1052N 05333W 8430 01599 0144 +150 +138 014014 015 024 006 00
223800 1052N 05335W 8429 01600 0146 +146 +137 015014 014 025 007 00
223830 1052N 05336W 8429 01599 0144 +149 +136 015013 014 021 009 00
223900 1053N 05338W 8429 01600 0144 +150 +136 015012 013 020 009 00
223930 1053N 05340W 8430 01601 0142 +155 +132 019013 014 022 004 00
$$
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