#12 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:17 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 111.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.3E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 141130Z HIMAWARI-8I IR IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, HOWEVER, A RECENT BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SSTS (29-30 C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
BEFORE CURVING WESTWARD NEAR HAINAN ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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