ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6617
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
Now let's see what happens when the remains make it into the Gulf this weekend.
0 likes
- Fishing
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 67
- Age: 64
- Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:53 am
- Location: Mount Pleasant, SC
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Convection is not very organized at the moment but there is still a lot of vorticity and would not take much but some sustained convection for this to happen definitely need to be watched still. the wave axis is orientated east to west an watching that eastern side is the best shot if convection can sustain its self
I wont be around much today. I start a new job.
Good Luck on your new job Aric! We'll miss ya today but will see
you later!
2 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22506
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
Here's a good shot of former TD Four using the GOES-16 slider website. It's now a convectionless wave moving through the Bahamas. No reason for it to ever get much more organized than it is now.
5 likes
Re: ATL: FOUR - Models
After following this for the last few days, it is apparent that TC generation has been inhibited by the lack of mid-layer moisture.
In this environment, air parcels cool off from evaporation as they lift and latent heating is ineffective to create a warm core.
Looking at the latest GFS run, this key ingrediate will change as the wave approaches the Straits of Florida.
In about 48 hrs 700-400mb RH will increase.
However, 200mb PV will still be relatively strong to keep a lid on strong development.
Judging by the 200mb PV forecast, it appears the mid-layer vort will track thru the Straits.
As it enters the GOM, its is forecast to run into a much more favorable environment for development.
One feature of high importance is a Theta-E ridge that it is forecast to run into.
Also mid-layer moisture and TPW will be much more conducive for development.
200mb PV will be nearly non-exitant as well.
In this environment, air parcels cool off from evaporation as they lift and latent heating is ineffective to create a warm core.
Looking at the latest GFS run, this key ingrediate will change as the wave approaches the Straits of Florida.
In about 48 hrs 700-400mb RH will increase.
However, 200mb PV will still be relatively strong to keep a lid on strong development.
Judging by the 200mb PV forecast, it appears the mid-layer vort will track thru the Straits.
As it enters the GOM, its is forecast to run into a much more favorable environment for development.
One feature of high importance is a Theta-E ridge that it is forecast to run into.
Also mid-layer moisture and TPW will be much more conducive for development.
200mb PV will be nearly non-exitant as well.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6617
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL: FOUR - Models
Great post and agree 100%.
GCANE wrote:After following this for the last few days, it is apparent that TC generation has been inhibited by the lack of mid-layer moisture.
In this environment, air parcels cool off from evaporation as they lift and latent heating is ineffective to create a warm core.
Looking at the latest GFS run, this key ingrediate will change as the wave approaches the Straits of Florida.
In about 48 hrs 700-400mb RH will increase.
However, 200mb PV will still be relatively strong to keep a lid on strong development.
Judging by the 200mb PV forecast, it appears the mid-layer vort will track thru the Straits.
As it enters the GOM, its is forecast to run into a much more favorable environment for development.
One feature of high importance is a Theta-E ridge that it is forecast to run into.
Also mid-layer moisture and TPW will be much more conducive for development.
200mb PV will be nearly non-exitant as well.
1 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
With only a few clouds no surprise about no Rocon.
INVEST SCHEDULED FOR 11/2100Z ON REMNANTS OF TD 04A
CANCELED BY NHC AT 11/1200Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 11/1200Z
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: FOUR - Models
Stormcenter wrote:Great post and agree 100%.GCANE wrote:After following this for the last few days, it is apparent that TC generation has been inhibited by the lack of mid-layer moisture.
In this environment, air parcels cool off from evaporation as they lift and latent heating is ineffective to create a warm core.
Looking at the latest GFS run, this key ingrediate will change as the wave approaches the Straits of Florida.
In about 48 hrs 700-400mb RH will increase.
However, 200mb PV will still be relatively strong to keep a lid on strong development.
Judging by the 200mb PV forecast, it appears the mid-layer vort will track thru the Straits.
As it enters the GOM, its is forecast to run into a much more favorable environment for development.
One feature of high importance is a Theta-E ridge that it is forecast to run into.
Also mid-layer moisture and TPW will be much more conducive for development.
200mb PV will be nearly non-exitant as well.
Much thanks!
0 likes
Re: ATL: FOUR - Models
12z GFS and Parallel doesn't do much with this in the gulf. Increase surge of moisture in the NGulf for rains. Euro had area of lower pressures in the Ngulf.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
Yes no surprise, I'm watching a area near 70.0 W 23 N, an elongated spin might hang on until conditions get a little better, if they get a little better. The system is void of deep convection but the overall circulation/wave axis is as defined as it been in days, now that it seems to be leaving that MLC behind
Last edited by tailgater on Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Convection is not very organized at the moment but there is still a lot of vorticity and would not take much but some sustained convection for this to happen definitely need to be watched still. the wave axis is orientated east to west an watching that eastern side is the best shot if convection can sustain its self
I wont be around much today. I start a new job.
Congratulations on your new job, Aric. Please don't stay away too long. We need you here to keep us all safe.
1 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
I'd say this is officially dead. Might be awhile before we Don or even anything else of interest as the Atlantic is rather hostile.
2 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6617
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
For the time being it is....later on it could be a different story. I am referring to TD4 remnants.
TheStormExpert wrote:I'd say this is officially dead. Might be awhile before we Don or even anything else of interest as the Atlantic is rather hostile.
1 likes
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
Convection starting to build around that elongated swirl I mentioned earlier, I would think this is about D min. so it might expand far awhile.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flash-rb-long.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flash-rb-long.html
1 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
hopefully the wave will flare up even more and bring some good rains to SE Florida. My area has been on the dry side for several weeks with a pretty stubborn Bermuda High and some dry mid-level air around.
3 likes
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
We only had one rain event here in S FL and it dry as a bone. I was hoping for a minimal tropical storm out of this but I'll probably get a five minute shower.
1 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22506
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
boca wrote:We only had one rain event here in S FL and it dry as a bone. I was hoping for a minimal tropical storm out of this but I'll probably get a five minute shower.
The wave should provide enough lift for quite a few daytime showers/storms across south Florida by Thursday.
2 likes
- BeRad954
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 17
- Age: 35
- Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:19 am
- Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:I'd say this is officially dead. Might be awhile before we Don or even anything else of interest as the Atlantic is rather hostile.
I know sort jumping the gun, but anybody notice large amount of convection from the wave that just came off the coast of Africa?
... I'm itching to track something
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
Our East coast TUTT saved the day again for Florida, just a nice juicy wave to replenish the Everglades. Many places in Florida have had watering restrictions, and lawns always need those afternoon showers. Not sure I can even remember a hurricane that developed from a shallow wave in the GOM. Some of the models were showing a stalled system which might give something time to convect and build a pressure gradient.
1 likes
- AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 3881
- Age: 60
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: West Melbourne, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
Nimbus wrote:Our East coast TUTT saved the day again for Florida, just a nice juicy wave to replenish the Everglades. Many places in Florida have had watering restrictions, and lawns always need those afternoon showers. Not sure I can even remember a hurricane that developed from a shallow wave in the GOM. Some of the models were showing a stalled system which might give something time to convect and build a pressure gradient.
A few things I want to point out here, and I'm not trying to be a hardass - I just want to make sure people understand and use the "TUTT" nomenclature correctly.
1. There is no such thing as the "East Coast TUTT". The semi-permanent TUTT is an upper level mid-Atlantic Ocean feature. Occasionally, pieces of the TUTT fracture off and retrograde westward beneath the upper level reflection of the Bermuda-Azores high. Those features are referred to as "TUTT lows". As is the case with the TUTT, TUTT lows have a much stronger reflection at around 200MB than they do lower in the atmosphere, say around 500MB.
2. Not all upper or mid to upper lows in the Subtropics are TUTT lows. Only those which fracture off from the TUTT are. I have seen many people, including mets within and outside my agency incorrectly call features "TUTT lows" that aren't. In my AFD, I make it a point to call an upper level feature that doesn't emanate from the TUTT a "TUTT type low", but only if it has the same structure (i.e it's stronger at 200-300MB than at 400-500MB). I will also correct my fellow mets that I work with when and if they make this same mistake.
3. In this case, I am pretty sure this upper low came from the base of an east coast/western Atlantic mid-upper level trough, which is a frequent occurrence. I'll check some NHEM upper level maps from the past week just to make sure that this is the case.
10 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion
it look remain of td4 almost gone may not even gave rain to south fl it weaking quick
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests