ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Convection is beginning to expand on the IR imagery on the western and southwest periphery of the system.

[northjaxpro]

Also. I have begun to see and a few others have noted that I am beginning to see the fanning of the upper level cirrus clouds (improving outflow)on the western and southwest periphery of the system ad well. I do not want to jump the gun fully just yet, but with the new convection bursting at this time , we may be seeing shear dropping off and the start of improving conditions for 04L. The signs are beginning to come into play to yours truly.

[Hammy]

Persistent deep convection and cyclonic spin, I'm puzzled how this is not a suspect area...

I don't think you schedule recon and activate an invest if it is not a suspect area,
as to why they won't mention it on the TWO I can only guess they are waiting for some model support.

If they've reactivated it then it's likely it'll get a mention at 2am--it would be quite odd indeed if it still gets no mention at that point.

[gatorcane]

Looks to my untrained eyes like the wave seems to be splitting, the NW portion moving west faster and weakening as it get father from the eastern part of the wave that has convection. This can be seen by looking at the 850 vorticity over the last 24 hrs.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vorZ.GIF

Agreed the low-level feature that moved west out around 68W is not the suspect area. It is whether the blob farther east can develop a low-level circulation.

Also the ULL seems to be in perfect position for creating an outflow channel should the blob start to get going.

[JPmia]

Um, interesting.

[Alyono]

the statistical models assume this is already a depression. Not applicable

[Blown Away]

Crazy, that convection exploding over that mid level, almost seems to be robbing from the 00z position area...

[northjaxpro]

The new convective flare up near 21.2 N and 63.2. W looks interesting to me.

[gatorcane]

The new convective flare up near 21.2 N and 63.2. W looks interesting to me.

Yeah when you loop the floater, there is a lot of spin with this that is for sure. Also new convection firing where you pointed out:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[RL3AO]

The outflow is pretty impressive*



*For a wave not being mentioned in the TWO.

[RL3AO]

One of the hurricane specialists once told me that he often noticed a wave goes on to develop into a depression after the 3rd night in a row of deep convection. Take it for what it's worth.

[Blown Away]

The outflow is pretty impressive*



*For a wave not being mentioned in the TWO.

Where would you put the center?

[northjaxpro]

Outflow is most definitely improving, which I pointed out a few posts earlier. I personally am befuddled that NHC has yet to mention this system in their TWO to this point.

[NDG]

There's nothing at the surface of interest underneath the MLC, the surface trough is way past to the west of it as clearly shown by the buoy's report.

[CourierPR]

There's nothing at the surface of interest underneath the MLC, the surface trough is way past to the west of it as clearly shown by the buoy's report.

I don't think that would preclude the MLC working down to the surface. Am I wrong?

[NDG]

It is being affected by mid level shear.

[RL3AO]

ASCAT hit the new convection. You can see the wave is well to the west of it.

[NDG]

There's nothing at the surface of interest underneath the MLC, the surface trough is way past to the west of it as clearly shown by the buoy's report.

I don't think that would preclude the MLC working down to the surface. Am I wrong?

That's a very rare concurrence when the surface is already to the west of it, leaving it behind, the MLC will just die out eventually.

[AutoPenalti]

NHC is not retagging because there is nothing to retag. Convection firing at DMAX is not sufficient enough to warrant one my guess.

[ROCK]

Eh Humberto was a total mess of mid level circulation until finally working down and organizing so it does happen. With this I see a low level feature ejected to the west leaving behind this mid level moisture which I might add is being aided by the ULL to the NE. Outflow channel is correct. Expected convection to wane by now so the ULL might be keeping it from collapsing.