ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

But it's not really suppose to do anything until it reaches the gulf so it doesn't make any difference if it dies now or not. The remnants will still make it into the Gulf next weekend.

http://i68.tinypic.com/nltt1s.gif

Low level clouds keep moving WNW and this mid level area seems stationary. Not sure what will continue to sustain this mid level area?

It will most likely die out over the next few hours, IMO.

I was talking about the ML Circulation, the surface energy/trough is forecasted to stay relatively strong as it moves westward towards somewhat better UL environment.

[Aric Dunn]

well on a side note.. that western lobe of the wave axis has finally flattened out and the vorticity has weakened the over all low level structure has become more circular again. maybe the next round of convection that is likely to develop over the next couple hours will have a better shot farther west.

[Aric Dunn]

awww look how cute.. the vort that got shot out earlier has a cute little bit of convection be really funny if that took over.. lol

however.. the buoy has switched the SE.. looks like the axis has finally passed it. maybe that little swirl was once something in the convection before it got burped out lol

[ROCK]

the LLC or what's left of it (not even sure its considered a LLC) is about to become naked as its mid level is getting a haircut. see the lower level clouds moving WNW leaving the mid level circulation behind.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html speed it up..

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

awww look how cute.. the vort that got shot out earlier has a cute little bit of convection be really funny if that took over.. lol

If that were the case....it would definitely prove that in the tropics, size doesnt matter

[northjaxpro]

awww look how cute.. the vort that got shot out earlier has a cute little bit of convection be really funny if that took over.. lol

If that were the case....it would definitely prove that in the tropics, size doesnt matter

[northjaxpro]

You know what is funny as you put it Aric in your post is that maybe this is the beginnings of the new convection around what we believe is a faint semblance of a LLC. It is still barely there looking at visible satellite imagery early this evening. The system should be getting into better upper level conditions in the next 12-24 hours and we should begin to see this system begin to organize better. We just wait and see what materializes.

[wxman57]

Low-level feature has moved to about 68W now, well west of the weakening convection.

[GCANE]

AMSU showing a 1C warm core

[Blown Away]

Low-level feature has moved to about 68W now, well west of the weakening convection.

240 miles west of the 18:00 UTC position?

[BobHarlem]

8PM outlook still has no mention of this system

[Hammy]

Development isn't shown until about day 6-7--if there's any NHC mention I'd assume it wouldn't be before mid-week. Certainly seems unlikely that anything will happen prior to reaching Florida.

[Bocadude85]

8PM outlook still has no mention of this system

I still don't understand why they have recon scheduled for tomorrow afternoon but have no mention of the system in the TWO. I would assume recon will be cancelled tomorrow bar some overnight development.

[Bocadude85]

Development isn't shown until about day 6-7--if there's any NHC mention I'd assume it wouldn't be before mid-week. Certainly seems unlikely that anything will happen prior to reaching Florida.

Then why have recon scheduled for the next 2 days?

[Aric Dunn]

Development isn't shown until about day 6-7--if there's any NHC mention I'd assume it wouldn't be before mid-week. Certainly seems unlikely that anything will happen prior to reaching Florida.

Then why have recon scheduled for the next 2 days?

you all keep watching the models.. and they have been wrong thus far.. just follow the short term trends.. sheesh.. it was not even supposed to thins organized by any model from when it was killed off. clearly the models are over doing something.

[GeneratorPower]

8PM outlook still has no mention of this system

I still don't understand why they have recon scheduled for tomorrow afternoon but have no mention of the system in the TWO. I would assume recon will be cancelled tomorrow bar some overnight development.

Recon takes a long time to prepare. Calling up recon now simply makes it available for tomorrow if we get a surprise development. NHC just being cautious. It will get cancelled if nothing warrants investigation tomorrow. The fact it's not mentioned in TWO reflects NHC reluctance to make this a media story with such a low chance of development. Not zero chance. But low. NHC is well aware of the overhyped media frenzy that could happen.

[Aric Dunn]

lol the convection building rapidly again.. but now associated with that vort that got shot out of the convection earlier.. this thing just does not want to give up..

[Alyono]

actually, the models were showing it looking nice today, before it started weakening around this time. Models had showed increased vorticity today

Just had a look at the 0Z Sunday models. All models showed a concentrated area of vorticity for 0Z Tuesday (which is now)

To say the models showed nothing at this time is borderline "fake news"

The models also showed this weakening tomorrow. We need to watch and see if this happens. Regardless if this weakens now, we will have to watch this in the Gulf

[p1nheadlarry]

Development isn't shown until about day 6-7--if there's any NHC mention I'd assume it wouldn't be before mid-week. Certainly seems unlikely that anything will happen prior to reaching Florida.

Then why have recon scheduled for the next 2 days?

you all keep watching the models.. and they have been wrong thus far.. just follow the short term trends.. sheesh.. it was not even supposed to thins organized by any model from when it was killed off. clearly the models are over doing something.

I think the conditions over the next 24 hours aren't very favorable but could be as it nears the Bahamas. Probably why the NHC isn't bothering until recon; regeneration isn't all too common after all (I think )

[Aric Dunn]

actually, the models were showing it looking nice today, before it started weakening around this time. Models had showed increased vorticity today

Just had a look at the 0Z Sunday models. All models showed a concentrated area of vorticity for 0Z Tuesday (which is now)

To say the models showed nothing at this time is borderline "fake news"

The models also showed this weakening tomorrow. We need to watch and see if this happens. Regardless if this weakens now, we will have to watch this in the Gulf

yes from yesterday the models slowly started too. besides I mentioned that not one model continued anything that remotely looked like a possible regeneration from when the advisories stopped.